ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Looking slightly better this morning. the center is still on the center is still on the edge of the convection.
looks almost down to 24n.

[txwatcher91]

Here is the big picture, Florence is losing latitude:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Yep everything is going as expected so far. The CMC takes her down to 24N and then sharply curves her to the NW for a NC landfall. FL definitely isn't in the clear yet and the next 24-48 hours will tell us a lot about who is most as risk.

[Blown Away]

Another S shift, 5am had Flo crossing 30N at 70W, now Flo crosses 30N at @72-73W, @120 mile W shift...

[txwatcher91]

Aric, I don't think the center is that far south. Recent microwave and other estimates put the center around 24.9N or 25.0N and the NHC seems to agree with that. Everything appears right on track.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

11am advisory has Florence as a Cat 4 again by day 5.

[pgoss11]

I did notice in the 11:00 discussion there was no mention this time of a southwest track for a short time. They forecast a west track for the next 48 hours with a turn to wnw after that.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, I don't think the center is that far south. Recent microwave and other estimates put the center around 24.9N or 25.0N and the NHC seems to agree with that. Everything appears right on track.

the most recent microwave pass was 5 hours ago. the mid level circ is farther north and is what most people are following. if you follow the low level curved bands with arc circles you can pretty easily extrapolate.

[Bocadude85]

It seems to me it’s all going to come down to how much latitude Florence looses and what the orientation of the W Atl ridge is, if the ridge sets up more E-W then Florence is going to landfall farther south. A fly in the ointment is newly designated 94L, I am not sure how this would affect the steering,perhaps displace the ridging further west?

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, I don't think the center is that far south. Recent microwave and other estimates put the center around 24.9N or 25.0N and the NHC seems to agree with that. Everything appears right on track.

the most recent microwave pass was 5 hours ago. the mid level circ is farther north and is what most people are following. if you follow the low level curved bands with arc circles you can pretty easily extrapolate.

ill qoute myself here..
take a look. fairly straightforward.
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

un related but notice the outflow boundary that just shot out to the east near the center still have a lot of shear issues. .

[xironman]

It kind of looks like it is stalled, or drifting southwest on the latest visibles.

[supercane4867]

I'm just going to make a bold prediction now and calling Florence to peak as a 130kt hurricane in the next five days.

[Ntxw]

I'm just going to make a bold prediction now and calling Florence to peak as a 130kt hurricane in the next five days.

I wouldn't bet against that. Being higher latitude storm (relative to tropics) and under a ridge, we'll probably see recon find some high winds relative to higher pressures.

[drewschmaltz]

If she decides to sit and spin in some of that more nothern bathwater with the strong outflow. Eeeek. Id rather it come towards me in florida than do that.

[txwatcher91]

Aric, I don't think the center is that far south. Recent microwave and other estimates put the center around 24.9N or 25.0N and the NHC seems to agree with that. Everything appears right on track.

the most recent microwave pass was 5 hours ago. the mid level circ is farther north and is what most people are following. if you follow the low level curved bands with arc circles you can pretty easily extrapolate.

ill qoute myself here..
take a look. fairly straightforward.
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

un related but notice the outflow boundary that just shot out to the east near the center still have a lot of shear issues. .

Center isn't down near 24N it's right around 25N. NHC plotted it there and they have a lot more tools than we do to use. Furthermore I've looked closely at high res visible from multiple sites/angles and you can see based on the low level cloud motion the center is pretty close to 25N, maybe a smidge south at 24.9N but nowhere close to 24N.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I'm just going to make a bold prediction now and calling Florence to peak as a 130kt hurricane in the next five days.

I wouldn't bet against that. Being higher latitude storm (relative to tropics) and under a ridge, we'll probably see recon find some high winds relative to higher pressures.

That coming from you is fairly scary...

Wxman57, you got any thoughts for us this morning? I always enjoy your insight.

[ronjon]

Flo is still decoupled with the mid-level center off to the NE of the LLC. Still very disorganized.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/status/1038051179287203840

[Aric Dunn]

Flo is still decoupled with the mid-level center off to the NE of the LLC. Still very disorganized.

yeah with the low level center very likely farther south 24.5 and continuing to move wsw-ish we may see it become exposed again if new convection does not build soon.

Also there is a strange outflow boundary shooting out to the east seems to have originated very close to the center.

[artist]

Could 94l effect it’s path?

[chaser1]

Not to split hairs here but i'd position the LLC at about 24.5. That latitude could drop a tiny bit more south but I think it'll remain status quo in relation to the MLC most of the day. At some point when the shear does begin to relax some, i'd expect the LLC to nudge north in better alignment with the westward moving MLC. There, Florence will likely straddle the 25° N line for a day or two. Keep in mind that a WNW motion could eventually commence.... but, even a stronger vertically structured hurricane is more apt to swing south of west under the right strength and orientation of the mid level ridge it were possibly interacting with.