ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1601 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:56 am

That's the new UKMET
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1602 Postby chaser1 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:58 am

Bocadude85 wrote:12z UKMET has shifted quite a bit SW in the 1-5 day time frame

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots


Those in Florida/Georgia might want to keep an eye on tonight's' 0Z UK run. I'll be very curious whether the UK begins to further extend it's nearer term westward motion. This model earlier then any other has picked up and maintained a stronger W. Atlantic low to mid level ridging and the degree to which Florence (through her range of intensity) might react to those steering mechanisms in place.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1603 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:04 pm

Image
12z CMC/GEM moves due W into Central Georgia...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1604 Postby canes92 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:04 pm

Looking like she might go pretty far south.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1605 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:07 pm

HWRF and HMON bring this down to a weak TD D1-D2.

Starting to wonder...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1606 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:11 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:HWRF and HMON bring this down to a weak TD D1-D2.

Starting to wonder...

HWRF shifts a full degree South so far out through 45 hours and weaker:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1607 Postby ronjon » Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:18 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:It would seem that the models are starting to come to a pretty good consensus on a track toward SC/NC.


Not yet - they keep shifting south - until we get a few cycles of them impacting the same location there is no consensus.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1608 Postby ronjon » Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:22 pm

Actually 12z Canadian is closer to Brunswick Georgia landfall than Savannah. Not sure the southward shifts are done yet. :eek:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=seus&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2018090712&fh=6
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1609 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:33 pm

ronjon wrote:Actually 12z Canadian is closer to Brunswick Georgia landfall than Savannah. Not sure the southward shifts are done yet. :eek:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=seus&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2018090712&fh=6


not likely..
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1610 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:37 pm

This is the point where it is moving wsw and the shape of the track will like stay the same but will just keep shifting west. THis will depend on how long the current motion continues.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1611 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:38 pm

WHo is ready for the 12Z Euro? Should be starting within 10 min - IMO Pivotal run to see if the S shifts keep coming

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1612 Postby artist » Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:40 pm

chris_fit wrote:WHo is ready for the 12Z Euro? Should be starting within 10 min - IMO Pivotal run to see if the S shifts keep coming

I’ll be curious to see if it picks up on 94l, and if so, how it shows it will effect it.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1613 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:44 pm

And we're off - Init

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1614 Postby hohnywx » Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:46 pm

Can someone post the link again that will show the Euro updates in real time on the map?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1615 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:47 pm

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Euro initialized good!
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1616 Postby edu2703 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:50 pm

hohnywx wrote:Can someone post the link again that will show the Euro updates in real time on the map?


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90712&fh=0
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1617 Postby hohnywx » Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:53 pm

edu2703 wrote:
hohnywx wrote:Can someone post the link again that will show the Euro updates in real time on the map?


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90712&fh=0


Thanks, but that's not what I was referring to. I found it: http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.png
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1618 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:53 pm

24hrs

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1619 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:55 pm

About the same location as the last 12Z run, just weaker.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1620 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:56 pm

Apologies for the 12z Euro interruption, but here are the 12Z GFS Ensembles

Respectable Shift W from the 06Z Suite

Image
Last edited by chris_fit on Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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