
ATL: FLORENCE - Models
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
It should move generally parallel to the height axis. Black line is mine.


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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
00z probably into northern Florida at this rate...ensembles should be fun
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
based on error this far out, i would be getting very concerned if i lived in jacksonville, fl...yes error works to the right too but the trend has been to the leftgatorcane wrote:Yet another south shift with the Euro, when are they going to stop?
Last edited by jlauderdal on Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
SFLcane wrote:00z probably into northern Florida at this rate...ensembles should be fun
It was not a staggering shift - 50-60 miles-ish @ 144 hours - I think we finally have some consistency.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Looks like 961mb Cat 3? just north of Charleston on landfall. Where Hugo hit?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.png
Don't direct embed, you are killing his page and probably costing him money. Every person who views that image here pulls it down from weathermodels web server. We have to be careful of that, which is why we want people to copy to a hosting site first.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
12 z Euro init at 1005 mb. 11 am tpc had it 995. Only has at 1005 in 48.
I think it has Flo to weak for too long. Not sure what effect that would have on it's track.
To me Flo looks the best it has in the past 24 right now. I guess it could weaken more, but I'm not sure.
Still hoping for a fish.
btw, did it miss the escape route already?
I think it has Flo to weak for too long. Not sure what effect that would have on it's track.
To me Flo looks the best it has in the past 24 right now. I guess it could weaken more, but I'm not sure.
Still hoping for a fish.
btw, did it miss the escape route already?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
12z Euro_9.7.18:
Initialized: @24.8N/51.1W.
Lowest Latitude: @24.7N/56.6W at 48 hrs.
Initialized: @24.8N/51.1W.
Lowest Latitude: @24.7N/56.6W at 48 hrs.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
I think the ECMWF is underdoing the intensity (Ryan Maue on Twitter seems to agree), brings it down to 1007mb by 48 hours. Basically a TD. Will probably stay 50-55 knots for the next two days.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
chris_fit wrote:SFLcane wrote:00z probably into northern Florida at this rate...ensembles should be fun
It was not a staggering shift - 50-60 miles-ish @ 144 hours - I think we finally have some consistency.
Agree. It was a shift South but a small margin.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:I think the ECMWF is underdoing the intensity (Ryan Maue on Twitter seems to agree), brings it down to 1007mb by 48 hours. Basically a TD. Will probably stay 50-55 knots for the next two days.
HWRF and HMON are similar with that weakening.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Hurricane Andrew wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:I think the ECMWF is underdoing the intensity (Ryan Maue on Twitter seems to agree), brings it down to 1007mb by 48 hours. Basically a TD. Will probably stay 50-55 knots for the next two days.
HWRF and HMON are similar with that weakening.
Both the HWRF and HMON are deeper than the ECMWF through 48 hours. HWRF does show slight weakening, but ramps it up to Cat 4 by 120 hours. HMON looks constant/slight deepening through 48 hours.
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