ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Andrew]

I have officially become intrigued about Florence as a resident of NC. I live in the Raleigh area so I'm not too worried about severe impacts, but I suspect we could some power outages if the center passes near me and of course all those people who may need to evac from the coast!

Yeah power outages might be possible. When Irene went up the east coast in 2011 my power went out even though I'm way inland and Irene had weakened to a category 1. I see a lot of people underestimate tropical storm or category 1 hurricane force winds but they're a lot stronger than people think.

In a word: yes

[chaser1]

I have officially become intrigued about Florence as a resident of NC. I live in the Raleigh area so I'm not too worried about severe impacts, but I suspect we could some power outages if the center passes near me and of course all those people who may need to evac from the coast!

Might be a good time to quickly upload each room of your home on AirBNB; Heck, a southern approach to your coastline there and you might just fetch $20.00 a night for dry spot in some hallway to sleep away the night! Lose electric and you might have to cut your nightly rent in half though

[chaser1]

Looks like Teal 14 is heading somewhere for staging?

I wonder if they collect data on their way out to burmuda ? anything will help.

Data at 2,000' though? I though the Teal was purely for high altitude? On that note, anyone know or hear whether drones have or are being flown anywhere in the Atlantic for data collection this year?

[wxman57]

Looking more likely that Florence will impact the Carolinas as a strong hurricane next Thursday. The hurricanes are now chasing Mark Sudduth instead of the other way around.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like Teal 14 is heading somewhere for staging?

https://i.imgur.com/Ybgl0Xu.jpg

I wonder if they collect data on their way out to burmuda ? anything will help.

Data at 2,000' though? I though the Teal was purely for high altitude? On that note, anyone know or hear whether drones have or are being flown anywhere in the Atlantic for data collection this year?

there was a trainning mission that flew through 94L maybe unofficially.

NOAA2 Training Mission
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 17:29 UTC Sep 07, 2018:
Aircraft Position: 32.35°N 64.68°W
Bearing: 270° at 101 kt
Altitude: 12 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 17 kt at 135°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1020.0 mb

[TheDreamTraveler]

Looking more likely that Florence will impact the Carolinas as a strong hurricane next Thursday. The hurricanes are now chasing Mark Sudduth instead of the other way around.

Do you think Florence will end up stalling or moving very slowly like the GFS and Euro have been showing once it's inland? I'm actually kind of worried because parts of Pennsylvania, Maryland and Virginia have had record rains and floods all year long. And the last thing we need is more rain from the remnants of Gordon and from Florence sitting around. Might still be room for that to change hopefully.

[RL3AO]

I'm going to have to agree with wxman here. It's now looking like the best case scenario for the US will be a very close call on the Outer Banks. However, the likelihood of a US landfall continues to increase and is probably over 60% now. The target right now looks to be the Carolinas, but those all the way from NE FL and up the entire east coast should watch closely. If you are in a evacuation zone in coastal NC or SC, take this weekend to prepare! Even if you are further inland, make sure you have your supplies ready.

[CronkPSU]

Looking more likely that Florence will impact the Carolinas as a strong hurricane next Thursday. The hurricanes are now chasing Mark Sudduth instead of the other way around.

Do you think Florence will end up stalling or moving very slowly like the GFS and Euro have been showing once it's inland? I'm actually kind of worried because parts of Pennsylvania, Maryland and Virginia have had record rains and floods all year long. And the last thing we need is more rain from the remnants of Gordon and from Florence sitting around. Might still be room for that to change hopefully.

The latest gfs does exactly that...the euro pushes it inland and sticks around as well and would bring lots of rain to the mid Atlantic as well

[pgoss11]

I'm wondering if the pros can give me their opinion as to how that disturbance off the Carolina coast that the NHC is monitoring will affect Florence. Could it erode the ridge enough to steer Florence more northward as she approaches the coast (GFS)? I'm in Charleston SC and am wondering if this could possibly steer the storm away from us. Thanks in advance.

[eastcoastFL]

I'm wondering if the pros can give me their opinion as to how that disturbance off the Carolina coast that the NHC is monitoring will affect Florence. Could it erode the ridge enough to steer Florence more northward as she approaches the coast (GFS)? I'm in Charleston SC and am wondering if this could possibly steer the storm away from us. Thanks in advance.

Im no pro but I don't think that disturbance will have any effect. If Florence can't erode it then i don't think that will. Just my opinion.

[HurricaneRyan]

Imagine if Florence and Olivia both hit the US at the same exact time

[Blown Away]

This is how I see this playing out:
1. Out to sea still on table.
2. Red path to Carolinas, highest probability as of now.
3. Orange path, if S shifts continue and recon finds a stronger ridge.
4. Melbourne FL to Savannah GA, climatology/history not happening even if models show it, the models will eventually follow red or orange path.
5. Red & Blue circles represent the highest latitudes for Andrew/Ike before moving W towards SFL/GOM.
6. Everything still on table until these S shifts in models stop.


JMHO

[sammy126]

Does anyone know the size of Florence?

[chaser1]

Does anyone know the size of Florence?

34C ?

[JtSmarts]

Does anyone know the size of Florence?

We have to wait for recon to confirm, but right now TS winds extend out 115 miles from center.

[artist]

I'm wondering if the pros can give me their opinion as to how that disturbance off the Carolina coast that the NHC is monitoring will affect Florence. Could it erode the ridge enough to steer Florence more northward as she approaches the coast (GFS)? I'm in Charleston SC and am wondering if this could possibly steer the storm away from us. Thanks in advance.

Here is what Pro Met/mod AJC3 said earlier today when it first went up-

On the one hand it could wind up being the SE CONUS' saving grace, as far as Florence is concerned. If it sits there and spins up, it would surely take a chunk out of the ridge, which would allow Flo to move more poleward, perhaps missing the eastern US entirely.

BUT...

On the other hand, IT could become a problem if it gets trapped and sent west!

[sammy126]

Does anyone know the size of Florence?

We have to wait for recon to confirm, but right now TS winds extend out 115 miles from center.

Thank you!

[pgoss11]

I'm wondering if the pros can give me their opinion as to how that disturbance off the Carolina coast that the NHC is monitoring will affect Florence. Could it erode the ridge enough to steer Florence more northward as she approaches the coast (GFS)? I'm in Charleston SC and am wondering if this could possibly steer the storm away from us. Thanks in advance.

Im no pro but I don't think that disturbance will have any effect. If Florence can't erode it then i don't think that will. Just my opinion.

I'm wondering if the pros can give me their opinion as to how that disturbance off the Carolina coast that the NHC is monitoring will affect Florence. Could it erode the ridge enough to steer Florence more northward as she approaches the coast (GFS)? I'm in Charleston SC and am wondering if this could possibly steer the storm away from us. Thanks in advance.

Here is what Pro Met/mod AJC3 said earlier today when it first went up-

On the one hand it could wind up being the SE CONUS' saving grace, as far as Florence is concerned. If it sits there and spins up, it would surely take a chunk out of the ridge, which would allow Flo to move more poleward, perhaps missing the eastern US entirely.

BUT...

On the other hand, IT could become a problem if it gets trapped and sent west!

Thank you!

[chaser1]

Florence looking a bit sloppy. Northwesterly shear looks to be taking a little more of a toll then the last few hours. Seems to me that the LLC is once again drifting off the southwest and a little more separated from the MLC like earlier in the day.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Florence looking a bit sloppy. Northwesterly shear looks to be taking a little more of a toll then the last few hours. Seems to me that the LLC is once again drifting off the southwest and a little more separated from the MLC like earlier in the day.

Some models had a TD within a day.