ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1861 Postby edu2703 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:38 pm

mcheer23 wrote:
storm4u wrote:0z early models are out. Watch out North Carolina



Where did you find them? Not updating for me



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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1862 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:41 pm

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1863 Postby lando » Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:52 pm

According to the other thread, she is already further S then any model forecasted included UKie. I don't think that we have seen the end of the SW trends yet as they have not come to terms with her current movement
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1864 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:54 pm

lando wrote:According to the other thread, she is already further S then any model forecasted included UKie. I don't think that we have seen the end of the SW trends yet as they have not come to terms with her current movement


Look at the orange ECMWF ensemble lines in that graphic above that are south of the UKIE. They end up further south, as far south as Southern Florida.
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1865 Postby StormyWaters93 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:55 pm

Definitely not -removed-, but also not going off of anything scientific. I keep getting the feeling that Florence is going to impact Florida. I had the same feeling with Irma and Matthew way before they were even tracked towards Florida. I hope I am wrong, but these West shifts feed into that nightmare of a a feeling.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1866 Postby GeneratorPower » Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:57 pm

The far southern ensemble lines through South Florida bring it ashore as a depression. Not likely and not impressive.

Nevertheless...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1867 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:57 pm

StormyWaters93 wrote:Definitely not -removed-, but also not going off of anything scientific. I keep getting the feeling that Florence is going to impact Florida. I had the same feeling with Irma and Matthew way before they were even tracked towards Florida. I hope I am wrong, but these West shifts feed into that nightmare of a a feeling.

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I think the recon out in front of Flo sampling high pressure will determine Florida or Carolinas...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1868 Postby johngaltfla » Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:58 pm

Gang, I want to calm this down a tad. Until Kermit gets up there with the upper level sampling, keep in mind these models are missing key data. Once we get an idea of how the high pressure ridge is building and the intensity, these models are not as accurate as they can be.

The data from the Gulfstream will be a huge help and will give us a clearer picture on Sunday.

In the mean time, remember the S2K motto:

Gotta
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Recon
8-)
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1869 Postby SSL » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:16 pm

Blown Away wrote:
StormyWaters93 wrote:Definitely not -removed-, but also not going off of anything scientific. I keep getting the feeling that Florence is going to impact Florida. I had the same feeling with Irma and Matthew way before they were even tracked towards Florida. I hope I am wrong, but these West shifts feed into that nightmare of a a feeling.

Sent from my SM-S727VL using Tapatalk


I think the recon out in front of Flo sampling high pressure will determine Florida or Carolinas...


...Yo. What about Georgia? You just gonna leave my state out? We always get left out. XD
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1870 Postby Blinhart » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:45 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:The far southern ensemble lines through South Florida bring it ashore as a depression. Not likely and not impressive.

Nevertheless...


Where do you see the strength in the ensembles??? I just see lines all the same color. Some of the ensembles have her going to New Orleans.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1871 Postby storm4u » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:53 pm

FWIW the 0z NAM is further north and the ridge is weaker than 18z
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1872 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:25 pm

Let’s see what 0zGFS shows
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1873 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:27 pm

storm4u wrote:FWIW the 0z NAM is further north and the ridge is weaker than 18z


I would not use the NAM as far as track goes, the reason the ridge is “weaker” this run is because the NAM shows a little more development with 94L which doesn’t allow the ridge to build in. We will have to wait and see if any other models show this.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1874 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:29 pm

Just a friendly reminder people...this is the MODELS thread. This thread is for posting models so they are easy for people to find. In the last three pages there were only 5 graphics posted. Discuss in Discussion thread. When it starts really ramping up around here it will get hard to find things if we dont stick to those rules (no I'm not a Mod but I didnt stay at a HI last night either :) )

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119804
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1875 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:40 pm

00z GFS... Initialized @30 miles to far E... Slightly E of 18z at 30 hrs...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1876 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:41 pm

Very little movement the first 36 to 42 hours with the GFS>.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1877 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:43 pm

Blown Away wrote:00z GFS... Initialized @30 miles to far E... Slightly E of 18z at 30 hrs...

So this model run looks like trash right off the bat, It’s too Far East at initialization
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1878 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:44 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
Blown Away wrote:00z GFS... Initialized @30 miles to far E... Slightly E of 18z at 30 hrs...

So this model run looks like trash right off the bat, It’s too Far East at initialization



30 miles east is not going to change much
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1879 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:44 pm

I don’t know about this run, it’s a lot slower than 18Z for sure.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1880 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:44 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
Blown Away wrote:00z GFS... Initialized @30 miles to far E... Slightly E of 18z at 30 hrs...

So this model run looks like trash right off the bat, It’s too Far East at initialization



I don't think it matters much, likely subtle differences...
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