ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Mouton
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#821 Postby Mouton » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:20 pm

I don't trust the GFS...it shows a ridge building even more from its current position westward and right into it sending Florence. Makes no sense to me. Would not be surprised to see a much longer WSW movement than currently predicted.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#822 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:29 pm

Shear seems to be letting up some so we may start to see some strengthening tomorrow
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#823 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:40 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
TheDreamTraveler wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
yeah anywhere along Georiga and northern florida from St augustine north to Charleston have never had a major hurricane landfall. homes build prior to the 2000's ( the majority) are 50 to 100 plus years old in some cases. Savannah itself besides some of the modern updates are all 200 years old. no good.


I completely forgot about that. I forgot they haven't really been impacted by a major hurricane since Hugo in 1989. Infact most of the east coast has been pretty lucky the past 2 decades in terms of category 3 or higher storms.


The coast from Vero Beach to Hilton Head Island has not had a major hurricane in 120 years. There is no record of a major hitting NE Florida (Matthew came close but the core stayed offshore), and the last to hit Georgia was in 1898. But it won't need a major to cause big problems.


I believe hurricane Dora in 1964 hit NE Florida as a cat 3, unless it was reanalyzed and downgraded?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#824 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:42 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I'll just say this: EVERYONE in hurricane prone areas in the Western Hemisphere should use this weekend to think about plans and prepare. There are 8 systems out there, and even if the supplies and plans don't get used now, consider us prepared for the future.


Here in Florida, we've had to put our plans into actions for two years straight. I still have gas in the generator from last time.


Better check to make sure the gas hasn't gone bad. That happened to my father's generator, and we are having a hard time getting it worked out.
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Diana X2 (look it up), Bertha, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd, Dennis, Charley, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene, Matthew, And Florence

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#825 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:48 pm

Just my take, but I think we're closing in on a 80% chance of major US hurricane landfall. I'm almost in disbelief such a potentially blockbuster storm is coming off the heels of last season. Hard to believe how 2016-2018 seasons are shaping up compared to the previous 3 years. Everyone on the US East Coast please stay vigilant through the weekend.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#826 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:59 pm

and here we go.. just like that.. convection starting to wrap around shear appears to be dropping fast. florence is dropping wsw... might drop below 24n ..
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#827 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:05 am

Aric Dunn wrote:and here we go.. just like that.. convection starting to wrap around shear appears to be dropping fast. florence is dropping wsw... might drop below 24n ..


It’s hard to tell without visible but in the RGB it still looks like the center is exposed on the south side of the convection and that it just took a large wobble almost SSW. If that is the center I think it gets below 24N by daybreak.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#828 Postby emeraldislenc » Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:07 am

I agree that the storm is looking healthier and less shear
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#829 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:24 am

Aric Dunn wrote:and here we go.. just like that.. convection starting to wrap around shear appears to be dropping fast. florence is dropping wsw... might drop below 24n ..

No model predicted that, here in central Florida they are monitoring it
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#830 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:27 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:and here we go.. just like that.. convection starting to wrap around shear appears to be dropping fast. florence is dropping wsw... might drop below 24n ..

No model predicted that, here in central Florida they are monitoring it


The UKMET brings Flo down to 24.2N, I am fairly certain that is the farthest south of the globals.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#831 Postby txwatcher91 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:33 am

It’s hard to tell but it seems to me on the latest scans that the LLC is being sucked under the convection and Florence is stacking. Hard to tell without visible but with shear subsiding it would make sense.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#832 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:05 am

So hurricane with an eye by what noon tomorrow ? lol FLO making a comback fast..
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#833 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:07 am

Aric Dunn wrote:So hurricane with an eye by what noon tomorrow ? lol FLO making a comback fast..

Eyewall replacement cycles might be the only thing that could keep the winds down but hopefully if we have them they’re nothing like Irma last year where the cycles kept aborting
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#834 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:12 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:So hurricane with an eye by what noon tomorrow ? lol FLO making a comback fast..

Eyewall replacement cycles might be the only thing that could keep the winds down but hopefully if we have them they’re nothing like Irma last year where the cycles kept aborting


I just meant from now till midday tomorrow. lol
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#835 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:13 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:So hurricane with an eye by what noon tomorrow ? lol FLO making a comback fast..

Eyewall replacement cycles might be the only thing that could keep the winds down but hopefully if we have them they’re nothing like Irma last year where the cycles kept aborting


I just meant from now till midday tomorrow. lol

Oops it’s really late
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#836 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:22 am

If anyone questions the strength of this ridge in the Eastern US just look at all the convection going up and over

https://i.imgur.com/gMsMi3D.gif

Image
Last edited by ScottNAtlanta on Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#837 Postby Orlando » Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:22 am

Geez! Just when I was starting to relax a bit on this one it starts to turn more towards my area.

This season is becoming feast or famine for the Atlantic storms.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#838 Postby fci » Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:31 am

SFLcane wrote:From NHC at 11pm ...It feels like a broken record to mention that the overall guidance envelope keeps shifting southwestward, and the official forecast is moved in that direction.


I like when they go off-script and editorialize a bit.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#839 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:47 am

South Carolina may be a bad place to be next week, I hope everybody in the Carolinas is watching Flo..this could be really bad for you guys.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#840 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:51 am

by the way.. looking at the convective pattern.. convection has wrapped to the south side of the CIRC> we very well might have a hurricane by 5am .. shear just dropped so suddenly. FLO is down around 24.2 and may wobble more as the convection builds.. ..
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