ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[bamajammer4eva]

Wow the FV3 hits SC then goes back out to sea takes a SW dip into Florida then heads back up northeast just off the coast while strengthening

That's a classic GFS run. Id say lets go ahead and make it operational

[Aric Dunn]

Wow the FV3 hits SC then goes back out to sea takes a SW dip into Florida then heads back up just off the coast while strengthening

The GFS never fails on the entertainment factor.

however it just goes to show what happens when there is nearly a complete lack of troughs.. either way it is not looking good for someone along the SE coast.

even the slightest extra ridging and well you know.. south and west the models go.. FL.. the gulf after.. lets hope the extra data find less heights tomorrow.

[Airboy]

Wow the FV3 hits SC then goes back out to sea takes a SW dip into Florida then heads back up northeast just off the coast while strengthening

As I understand it FV3 is meant to be the future updated GFS? How well have it done in the test phase?

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like th Navgem starts to turn Florence wsw as it comes ashore in s .carolina

[northjaxpro]

slight bend back to the west at 144 hours on the euro heading to CHarleston. no good.
no budge in the ridging

problem is.. I still think the models are under doing the ridging..

I feel the same way as well. The big take away I gathered from the 0Z model runs continues to show a south and west shift of the projected paths. This is very concerning to say the least obviously.

[TheStormExpert]

slight bend back to the west at 144 hours on the euro heading to CHarleston. no good.
no budge in the ridging

problem is.. I still think the models are under doing the ridging..

I’m afraid we will see more SW shifts tomorrow with the balloon data ingested. Florence has my attention in South Central Florida.

A lot of times though you do not see much change if any when the Gulfstream data gets into the models. Seems in my opinion models are honing in on a NC/SC landfall. Btw, when does the Gulfstream fly?

[Brent]

[HurricaneIrma]

[quote="Brent"][/quote

Hello South Carolina are you in there somewhere?

[TheDreamTraveler]

[jlauderdal]

slight bend back to the west at 144 hours on the euro heading to CHarleston. no good.
no budge in the ridging

problem is.. I still think the models are under doing the ridging..

I feel the same way as well. The big take away I gathered from the 0Z model runs continues to show a south and west shift of the projected paths. This is very concerning to say the least obviously.

i posted yesterday about jacksonville concern, that is increasing this morning, trend is sw, the track error is large at this range and the ridge is locked in and more likely being underdone than overdone and i am saying that without extra balloons and planes giving data, seen these ridges being underestimated for too many years and as good as the modeling has become recently we have seen the ridges underdone..regardless, melbourne to savannah is my strike zone for now and sofla to the keys you aren't out of it, wsw motion like we have been seeing is possible down the road with building heights

[northjaxpro]

06Z GFS running shortly.

Yeah we are having an anomalously strong positive NAO right now and that alone had me quite concerned about the prospects of Florence since she formed early this past week.

My fear of the models underestimating the strength of the ridge is panning out unfortunately. I have seen this happen so often in set-ups like this with other strong tropical cyclones i.e. Ike in 2008, and Irma last year for two great examples off the top of my head. Storms end up farther south and west than inutialky shown by the models. UK MET once again has been the model which has been consistent in showing the farther south solution all this past week.

The southward shifts continue..... Now we await the 6Z GFfS run and see what ir is showing.

[Kingarabian]

00z UK-ENS:



Noticeable shift south.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I saw this a short time ago. UK MET now has a focus of landfall anywhere primarily from Florida to the South Carolina coast. That is a very significant shift south by even the UK MET. This really got my attention.

[lando]

WOW. Ukm ensembles really making me feel u comfortable creeping down the coast. That’s a huge shift south

[northjaxpro]

This is really something here. Talk about an extremely rare potential landfall point. It has been since before 1900 that a major hurricane made a direct landfall on the Georgia coast . Needless to say, if the UK MET ends up being correct about this, Wow this would be of historic precedent for sure.

[Kingarabian]

More importantly, only 3 members recurving...

[northjaxpro]

Yes indeed Kingarabian. I noticed that too. That alone really tells the story. uh? I would say it is just about a pretty sure and safe bet at this point that the U.S.East Coast will be impacted by Florence during the next week. Wow!

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS, initialization to 24 hours:

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS hours 24-48:

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS hours 48-72: