ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Shear definitely is relenting over Florence as its outflow has become significantly better established, however it still lacks an inner core. Additionally, dry air intrusion from the south appears to be wrapping into the circulation.

[Dean4Storms]

Outflow looks much better but the core is still struggling and does look like dry air has infiltrated the eastern periphery, being a small storm it could take awhile to recover and stack IMO. That might be the que from the models and ensemble members that take this more westerly before a WNW or NW turn around the ridge and landfall much further south from Northern Florida to Charleston, SC area. I think if we see Florence struggling to deepen over the next couple days you have to give more credence to the more southern landfall model solutions.

[CronkPSU]

Great outflow this morning, it is indeed getting better organized this morning.

The fist has arrived...storm looks ready to ramp back up bigly again

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1038412433415700481

[GCANE]

Latest Archer algo analysis.
X is forecast track.

[NDG]

In my opinion N FL and GA still need to keep an eye on Florence over the next couple of days in case ridging builds faster and stronger over the Mid Atlantic ahead of Florence bridging with the forecasted strengthening Bermuda ridge. There will be no troughs moving across the northern plains/Great Lakes area next week with a trough becoming positive tilted across the US Pacific NW and staying put so ridging could be stronger over the Ohio and Mid Atlantic States.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1038405282924244993

[MGC]

Looking at the floater loop this morning......cirrus outflow is starting to look good, a sign the shear is relaxing. Should start to intensify soon....MGC

[BobHarlem]

Yeah the 6Z GFS doesn't really help this spread.

@cfhc
Graphic showing the various model camps and wide spread of uncertainty with Florence. Florida to out to sea.

 https://twitter.com/cfhc/status/1038422529520611328

[TheStormExpert]

The only inhibitor at the moment is dry air being indigested into the circulation from the SE.

[GCANE]

Moving into a lot of convective debris from 94L.
Should help with the dry-air issue over the next day or two.

[Blown Away]

Meanwhile, Flo continues to move S of forecast points in short term.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/TropicsWatch/status/1038414710499168256

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1038415585095241728

[cycloneye]

This thread is made for the peeps to discuss about the data from the missions and we do this to have the main recon thread free to have only the data.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1038423487923273728

[Rail Dawg]

Many of you might remember me from chasing every major hurricane since the 90's.

Along with the normal preps I can't stress enough the importance of having a LOT of extra gasoline/diesel to bail if needed.

For Irma you couldn't get a gallon of gasoline/diesel anywhere in the state of Florida and I saw literally thousands of stranded cars at gas stations waiting for the tanker truck to arrive (which didn't happen in time).

It's always a sight to see tens of thousands of cars parked on the freeways as I'm heading in. No extra gas, water, food, diapers, etc.

My observations over the past 25 years of chasing are that it's best to leave 2 days early or wait until 12 hours before the strike with plenty of fuel. Again that is what I would do and is not a recommendation to anyone else. Just an observation.

Will be leaving Houston Tuesday morning.

[Ian2401]

Southward component appears to have halted as of now. Still nearly half a degree South of NHC forecasts

[meriland29]

Looking at the 06z GFS it looks like they favored the curve just before total landfall and then it stalls forever right offshore ..... not sure what to make of this. So is GFS predicting the ridge to open up sooner rather than later?

[chaser1]

Latest Archer algo analysis.
X is forecast track.

http://i68.tinypic.com/11lokmw.png

Archer "who"?? Context please