ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

[weathaguyry]

If Flo does end up rapidly intensifying quicker than expected and does end up gaining some latitude, would that signal an OTS track, or would areas NC and north still be in play?

[cycloneye]

We have a recon discussion thread where the peeps can discuss about the missions.Thanks for your cooperation.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119888&p=2703512#p2703512

[wx98]

Per VDM, recon has this moving due NW, back up to 24.6N, although this could be just a short-term wobble. Based on SFMR I’d put this around 60 kt.

[KWT]

With Florence reorganizing it will be bouncing all over the place. don't get caught up in a bump NW or SW or whatever. On a day like today with a storm barely moving we have to wait for the longer term motion.

Looking at a long term satellite loop close up shows the center is wobbling around somewhat as convection grows and then decays. There was a lump that went up on the northern side a few hours ago that may have tugged the center a little more northerly briefly.

Still some dry air coming in from the SE as well which is preventing anything too rapid happening.

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KWBC 081632
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062018
A. 08/16:11:43Z
B. 24.56 deg N 054.34 deg W
C. NA
D. 991 mb
E. 115 deg 16 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 62 kt
I. 040 deg 9 nm 16:09:06Z
J. 106 deg 65 kt
K. 023 deg 15 nm 16:07:12Z
L. 50 kt
M. 184 deg 14 nm 16:15:18Z
N. 264 deg 56 kt
O. 185 deg 12 nm 16:14:54Z
P. 13 C / 2360 m
Q. 17 C / 2456 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA2 WA06A FLORENCE OB 15
MAX FL WIND 65 KT 023 / 15 NM 16:07:12Z

[Aric Dunn]

If Flo does end up rapidly intensifying quicker than expected and does end up gaining some latitude, would that signal an OTS track, or would areas NC and north still be in play?

Well technically.. currently the stronger it gets the more west it should go for the next 36 to 48 hours.

we will know more later after the upper air samplings tells us the current state of the ridiging.

[Aric Dunn]

We will also have all the extra soundings from the NWS offices starting at 2pm. that will also help greatly

[eastcoastFL]

We will also have all the extra soundings from the NWS offices starting at 2pm. that will also help greatly

Will they now be processing new data every 6hr?

[Aric Dunn]

We will also have all the extra soundings from the NWS offices starting at 2pm. that will also help greatly

Will they now be processing new data every 6hr?

idk. im sure it will be timed to fit with model output.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1038468119138729984

[dspguy]

I've already been in "finish preparations" mode. Filled up my gas cans, serviced the generator, have two places lined up that I could go to if it will be a direct-hit and choose to evacuate. Always better to get all this done before the panic. Watching the models closely. I was surprised to see the UKMET switch so far north from the previous run. I would not mind seeing things trend northward and hopefully just scrape by with minimal damage. But, that's wishful thinking.

I just hope when we are 2 days out, we don't have this much uncertainty. It seems like there's a lot going on that can steer this anywhere from FL to a recurve off of NC. Which honestly, isn't much different than what we were seeing 5 days ago.

[Bocadude85]

You can really see the ridge nosing down on Florence in the water vapor loop.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=wv-mid

[drewschmaltz]

IMO for 9/8/18 Florence has been due west just above 24.5.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_06L/web/basicGifDisplay.html

[Ken711]

IMO for 9/8/18 Florence has been due west just above 24.5.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_06L/web/basicGifDisplay.html

How may hours is Florence expected to continue on a west track before turning WNW?

[drewschmaltz]

IMO for 9/8/18 Florence has been due west just above 24.5.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_06L/web/basicGifDisplay.html

How may hours is Florence expected to continue on a west track before turning WNW?

Looks like between 8:00pm EST on the 9th until 8:00am EST on the 10th Flo is supposed to cross 25. She currently looks every so slightly N of the forecast.

here's an edited GIF for only 9/8. Very W.

[Blinhart]

IMO for 9/8/18 Florence has been due west just above 24.5.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_06L/web/basicGifDisplay.html

How may hours is Florence expected to continue on a west track before turning WNW?

It could be an hour it could be 24 hours, it could be longer, this is a very complex system with many tangibles.

[psyclone]

WPC 7 day outlook takes a stripe of heaviest QPF inland in NC over Brunswick and New Hanover counties on a northwesterly heading...so that gives a clue as to what they're thinking...which I think is a very reasonable solution. I've long been thinking either side of the NC/SC line...with the obvious "plenty of time" caveats. I recall the perpetual gut churning a year ago right now with Irma and I'm very sympathetic. Turn your angst into prep and it will flare off energy, occupy your mind, and most importantly, get you ready for whatever may come your way.

[Nimbus]

Wonder if the trough currently back by the Texas panhandle will continue east?
GFS is showing something that breaks the ridge for 2 runs now.

[Aric Dunn]

Wonder if the trough currently back by the Texas panhandle will continue east?
GFS is showing something that breaks the ridge for 2 runs now.

not exactly a trough... its the ring of fire.. classic ridge setup.