ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[rickybobby]

Here in nsb people are going crazy at publix. Water, can food, pet food, batteries and bread are running low. About a 10 min wait to check out.

[psyclone]

Here in nsb people are going crazy at publix. Water, can food, pet food, batteries and bread are running low. About a 10 min wait to check out.

so all the stuff that they should have purchase months ago. all the stuff that sold out a week ahead of Irma because no one bothered to stock up on basic essentials then either. that sounds about right.

[cycloneye]

A new mission is underway

[toad strangler]

Here in nsb people are going crazy at publix. Water, can food, pet food, batteries and bread are running low. About a 10 min wait to check out.

so all the stuff that they should have purchase months ago. all the stuff that sold out a week ahead of Irma because no one bothered to stock up on basic essentials then either. that sounds about right.

SO TRUE, as an avid camper and mild prepper I'm ALWAYS 80 to 90% ready for a storm even in the offseason. Come June the only thing I would have to do is fill all the gas cans.

Anyway, for perspective.....

[artist]

Last 3 vortex positions in order

(1)B. 24.48 deg N 054.27 deg W

(2)B. 24.56 deg N 054.34 deg W
(3)B. 24.56 deg N 054.44 deg W

[sunnyday]

Ricky, where is n s b where supplies are selling so fast in Publix?

[NDG]

That GFS is getting good, now the Euro is following its lead of trending to the right.

[WAcyclone]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1038492065242464260

[chaser1]

Wonder if the trough currently back by the Texas panhandle will continue east?
GFS is showing something that breaks the ridge for 2 runs now.

not exactly a trough... its the ring of fire.. classic ridge setup.

And, in the more immediate future i'm curious to see if 94L to the ENE of Bermuda will truly degrade the weak ridge north of Florence today/tomorrow as some of today's a.m. models have seemed to have trended with the beginning of a WNW motion. If by late tomorrow (Sunday) night or early Monday Florence were to not feel any weakness in the present steering flow as some globals might be indicating, then i'd expect to see all Global model suites (AND NHC) to adjust forecast track more to the south in anticipation of the building heights north of Bermuda sometime late Tuesday or Wednesday. Finally, I would see any faster deviation in the forecast forward speed this weekend as an indicator that models were correctly breaking down the ridge in the near term and suggest a potential slight northward adjustment of forecast track. Conversely, any stall or slower then official forecast might indicate some really bad juju for Florida folks because of the farther south latitude approach would occur by the time much stronger ridging begins to take hold.

[sunnyday]

So can Fl consider itself safe now?

[chaser1]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1038492065242464260

Which says one of two things. Either.....
1) NHC's capacity to forecast intensity has continued to improve, OR
2) Florence will break the glass ceiling and become a Cat. 6 (sci-fi movie stuff lol)

[chaser1]

So can Fl consider itself safe now?

With a potential Cat. 5 Hurricane 6 days off to the east of Florida? Sure.... what could possibly go wrong

[chaser1]

I'm still projecting Savannah to be where Flo will make landfall however having said that..... the risk of Florence striking Florida is likely greater now then at any point during the last few days.

[sunnyday]

Sorry. I asked b c the models are concentrating on nc and s c now.

[BobHarlem]

Sorry. I asked b c the models are concentrating on nc and s c now.

Take a look at the 12z hwrf model Linked here to answer the Florida question. (in short, no, it's not in the clear)

[Ubercast]

I'm still projecting Savannah to be where Flo will make landfall however having said that..... the risk of Florence striking Florida is likely greater now then at any point during the last few days.

I’m pretty new to this, so this might be a dumb question, but could you explaine why?

[MJGarrison]

I’ve seen a couple comments about balloon data helping. We already have ballon data right? We’re just getting more frequent balloon data?


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[TheDreamTraveler]

 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1038501899585105920

[StormingB81]

So Euro and GFS went a little north...why did HWRF go south

[TheDreamTraveler]

So Euro and GFS went a little north...why did HWRF go south

It might be because the HWRF is an intensity model first. So it might not have as good of a handle as the globals.