ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Here in nsb people are going crazy at publix. Water, can food, pet food, batteries and bread are running low. About a 10 min wait to check out.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
rickybobby wrote:Here in nsb people are going crazy at publix. Water, can food, pet food, batteries and bread are running low. About a 10 min wait to check out.
so all the stuff that they should have purchase months ago. all the stuff that sold out a week ahead of Irma because no one bothered to stock up on basic essentials then either. that sounds about right.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Recon Discussion
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
psyclone wrote:rickybobby wrote:Here in nsb people are going crazy at publix. Water, can food, pet food, batteries and bread are running low. About a 10 min wait to check out.
so all the stuff that they should have purchase months ago. all the stuff that sold out a week ahead of Irma because no one bothered to stock up on basic essentials then either. that sounds about right.
SO TRUE, as an avid camper and mild prepper I'm ALWAYS 80 to 90% ready for a storm even in the offseason. Come June the only thing I would have to do is fill all the gas cans.
Anyway, for perspective.....

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Last 3 vortex positions in order
(1)B. 24.48 deg N 054.27 deg W
(2)B. 24.56 deg N 054.34 deg W
(3)B. 24.56 deg N 054.44 deg W
(1)B. 24.48 deg N 054.27 deg W
(2)B. 24.56 deg N 054.34 deg W
(3)B. 24.56 deg N 054.44 deg W
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Ricky, where is n s b where supplies are selling so fast in Publix?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
That GFS is getting good, now the Euro is following its lead of trending to the right.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:Nimbus wrote:Wonder if the trough currently back by the Texas panhandle will continue east?
GFS is showing something that breaks the ridge for 2 runs now.
not exactly a trough... its the ring of fire.. classic ridge setup.
And, in the more immediate future i'm curious to see if 94L to the ENE of Bermuda will truly degrade the weak ridge north of Florence today/tomorrow as some of today's a.m. models have seemed to have trended with the beginning of a WNW motion. If by late tomorrow (Sunday) night or early Monday Florence were to not feel any weakness in the present steering flow as some globals might be indicating, then i'd expect to see all Global model suites (AND NHC) to adjust forecast track more to the south in anticipation of the building heights north of Bermuda sometime late Tuesday or Wednesday. Finally, I would see any faster deviation in the forecast forward speed this weekend as an indicator that models were correctly breaking down the ridge in the near term and suggest a potential slight northward adjustment of forecast track. Conversely, any stall or slower then official forecast might indicate some really bad juju for Florida folks because of the farther south latitude approach would occur by the time much stronger ridging begins to take hold.
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Andy D
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Which says one of two things. Either.....
1) NHC's capacity to forecast intensity has continued to improve, OR
2) Florence will break the glass ceiling and become a Cat. 6 (sci-fi movie stuff lol)
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Andy D
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
sunnyday wrote:So can Fl consider itself safe now?
With a potential Cat. 5 Hurricane 6 days off to the east of Florida? Sure.... what could possibly go wrong

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Andy D
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I'm still projecting Savannah to be where Flo will make landfall however having said that..... the risk of Florence striking Florida is likely greater now then at any point during the last few days.
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Andy D
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Sorry. I asked b c the models are concentrating on nc and s c now.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
sunnyday wrote:Sorry. I asked b c the models are concentrating on nc and s c now.
Take a look at the 12z hwrf model Linked here to answer the Florida question. (in short, no, it's not in the clear)
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
chaser1 wrote:I'm still projecting Savannah to be where Flo will make landfall however having said that..... the risk of Florence striking Florida is likely greater now then at any point during the last few days.
I’m pretty new to this, so this might be a dumb question, but could you explaine why?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I’ve seen a couple comments about balloon data helping. We already have ballon data right? We’re just getting more frequent balloon data?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
So Euro and GFS went a little north...why did HWRF go south
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- TheDreamTraveler
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
StormingB81 wrote:So Euro and GFS went a little north...why did HWRF go south
It might be because the HWRF is an intensity model first. So it might not have as good of a handle as the globals.
Last edited by TheDreamTraveler on Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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