ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[chaser1]

If you extrapolate the HWRF, it would hit northern Florida!

..... or Savannah.... or South Florida. Even more important then where HWRF might project Florence in 5 days, is how accurately it could it be at 3 days. With the medium range suggesting a potentially stronger ridge to build somewhere to the north, all bets are off if Flo were still actually south of 28N at 96 hr.'s.

[meriland29]

Actually, if Euro did happen, would the flooding issue be reminiscent to Harvey?? I also though that area had a significant portion of rain in recent months as well

[Steve]

Incredible worldwide NH run for Euro 12z, though. Should be worst flood disaster on east coast, at least since Agnes. Hi strike, Monster typhoon landfall in HK.

Not the same track, but that’s Floyd level rainfall. A lot of people drowned in ENC in that storm. I believe they consider Floyd beyond a 500 year flood.

[chaser1]

HWRF... I think the eye can be bigger though.. lol

Sorta looks like Hurricane Andrew on Crack (and 5 degrees further north)

[PandaCitrus]

The full track of the GFS FV3 Experimental is insane.

 https://twitter.com/ghsmeteo/status/1038498427628388352

[Emmett_Brown]

If you extrapolate the HWRF, it would hit northern Florida!

..... or Savannah.... or South Florida. Even more important then where HWRF might project Florence in 5 days, is how accurately it could it be at 3 days. With the medium range suggesting a potentially stronger ridge to build somewhere to the north, all bets are off if Flo were still actually south of 28N at 96 hr.'s.

If you just took a glance at the overall pattern without looking at the other models, this HWRF run looks a little more like the solution you would expect vs what the globals are showing. Not that this is right, and it is obviously an outlier, but the run looks very reasonable for the pattern that has been in place recently... just a gradual W/NW movement along the southern side of the ridge... no loops or pop-a-wheelies.

[chaser1]

GFS-FV3 gets my vote for "worse case scenario" EVER

[OuterBanker]

Been in the sun working today. Bordering on heat stroke I must have been. Helping a friend out.

Just got back and visited the models knowing that the Euro would spare us.

Earlier thinking that the GFS was on drugs and impossible.

Euro now looks like it drank the cool aid too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=144

[AdamFirst]

GFS-FV3 gets my vote for "worse case scenario" EVER

A wild run, for sure.

[chaser1]

If you extrapolate the HWRF, it would hit northern Florida!

..... or Savannah.... or South Florida. Even more important then where HWRF might project Florence in 5 days, is how accurately it could it be at 3 days. With the medium range suggesting a potentially stronger ridge to build somewhere to the north, all bets are off if Flo were still actually south of 28N at 96 hr.'s.

If you just took a glance at the overall pattern without looking at the other models, this HWRF run looks a little more like the solution you would expect vs what the globals are showing. Not that this is right, and it is obviously an outlier, but the run looks very reasonable for the pattern that has been in place recently.

Yep..... E. Conus ridge, E. Conus ridge, E. Conus ridge - persistence, persistence, persistence!

[supercane4867]

The 12z run of FV3 GFS is a piece of model artwork

[smithtim]

12z HWRF is way south heading WNW nearing the Bahamas

Very scary picture, if it continues moving WSW that could be a potentially horrific storm.

As a coastal FLa resident at this point I'm going to lie to myself and pretend that is a pretty drawing made for illustration and not really an output of a real computer model LOL!!!

But, I will say as a researcher who does regression modeling that we have to be honest about the error in this models, basically beyond 5 days the expectations of error terms are like 50%, especially when IVC contain significant error. So I geuss what I'm saying is sure last few days we've been pretty consistent well north up by Carolinas but in no way does that mean Florida is out of woods. The next few days will be crucial and IMHO late Sunday runs into Mondays will be when we get solid picture but in mean time I hope people, especially northern FLa up through Virginia, are taking FLO seriously doing some preliminary preps etc etc

[Cyclenall]

The full track of the GFS FV3 Experimental is insane.

The GFS FV3 12z run is in the top 4 most INSANE model runs I've ever seen and that is saying a lot because there's been a thousand. How does it even get it to go counter-clockwise like that anyways? If that's even possible, 80 inches of rain would fall on that area of NC or something .

[txwatcher91]

IF anyone thinks the models have a handle on the track. just take a look at the spread just 24 to 36 hours out. that is a large difference in all the ensemble for such a small time period. they cant even nail down the next 24 hours let alone the next 5 days.

That’s because models struggle more with weak steering currents like we have right now. Once the ridge builds in the steering will be quite strong and Florence will move quickly. Models, especially the Euro, usually handle that type of steering much better. As much as people are trying to wishcast this into Florida, the reliable guidance has shifted north and puts NC/SC at highest risk for any threat. The HWRF is an outlier at this point and even the west biased UK has shifted north today which should be telling as we are getting inside 5 days. Florida still needs to watch this but the most likely impacts from Florence are the Carolinas. Balloon data tonight should be interesting but I don’t expect major changes.

[Aric Dunn]

..... or Savannah.... or South Florida. Even more important then where HWRF might project Florence in 5 days, is how accurately it could it be at 3 days. With the medium range suggesting a potentially stronger ridge to build somewhere to the north, all bets are off if Flo were still actually south of 28N at 96 hr.'s.

If you just took a glance at the overall pattern without looking at the other models, this HWRF run looks a little more like the solution you would expect vs what the globals are showing. Not that this is right, and it is obviously an outlier, but the run looks very reasonable for the pattern that has been in place recently.

Yep..... E. Conus ridge, E. Conus ridge, E. Conus ridge - persistence, persistence, persistence!

then more ridging... and more and more.. with nothing insight to change that.

[artist]

[meriland29]

The 18z and 00z will be very interesting tonight. The GFS seems like the outlier, even to point where the NHC is determined to go further west whilst acknowledging the GFS eastward trend. I find that fascinating and odd, it is not very often that the NHC doesn't allow current GFS models to effect its projected course...at all.

[artist]

With ensembles

[WAcyclone]

New 12z EPS run:

[meriland29]

Can anyone post this "insane"GFS FV 12Z run?