#2352 Postby smithtim » Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:27 pm
Blinhart wrote:supercane4867 wrote:12z HWRF is way south heading WNW nearing the Bahamas

Very scary picture, if it continues moving WSW that could be a potentially horrific storm.
As a coastal FLa resident at this point I'm going to lie to myself and pretend that is a pretty drawing made for illustration and not really an output of a real computer model LOL!!!
But, I will say as a researcher who does regression modeling that we have to be honest about the error in this models, basically beyond 5 days the expectations of error terms are like 50%, especially when IVC contain significant error. So I geuss what I'm saying is sure last few days we've been pretty consistent well north up by Carolinas but in no way does that mean Florida is out of woods. The next few days will be crucial and IMHO late Sunday runs into Mondays will be when we get solid picture but in mean time I hope people, especially northern FLa up through Virginia, are taking FLO seriously doing some preliminary preps etc etc
Last edited by
smithtim on Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Disclaimer: while I am PhD who does research I'm rambling here so this post should be taken only for entertainment...use nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts!
FLoridian living round here for a while: 2016 Matthew & 1998 Earl lived barrier island landfall. Also lived nearby/inland for: 2017 Irma & 2004 Frances,Jeanne & 1992 Andrew