ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[drewschmaltz]

euro rain totals...a lot of these areas have been hammered hard by rains all year, especially this summer. Some areas have had over 2 feet of rain or more in 90 days already in virginia, maryland and pennsylvania. Even without Florence and Gordon this was already going to be one of the wettest years on record for parts of these states.

Floyd's totals were 15 to 20 inches. Some of these solutions suggest well north of that.

[NDG]

I’m done with the Euro’s West biased solutions, it used to be such a good model, I hope they fix it for next year’s season.

[Nimbus]

The GFS for 94L shows a weakness trying to pull it out to the north but that is balanced by approaching Florence which just absorbs it. Normal Fujiwara effect would slingshot 94L south.

If the models initialized at 25.2 N would that make a difference?
Sometimes there is a latitude where the models create an asymptotic fork.

[txwatcher91]

I'm going with over 20 years of life experiences to go with it. The past 3 or 4 runs have been slowly moving S/SW for landfall, and then all of a sudden one run shows a turn to the E it is gospel, can't go with that. Models have been from Miami to OTS all the time with this system, so my guess is just as good as almost anyone else. I always side with the NHC but always look at the South and West side of the cone for where the system will go. And the cone is about to hit Florida, and look at the NAVY one it has almost all of Florida in it.

A voice of reason in a cacophony of hysteria...

Nobody should be calling all clear yet when potential impact is still 5-6 days away.

No one is saying Florida is in the all clear. Florida residents should monitor this closely still but the overall consensus from NHC and the best models we have are all pointing to the Carolinas as the highest risk right now. Things are still likely to shift north and south as we get closer and models hone in but if I were in the Carolinas I would be very uneasy right now.

[Blown Away]

Compared to the 00z EPS the 12z run is much stronger. It also seems like the spread is decreasing:

That's unexpected, 12z more concentrated on CONUS and still leaves large cluster into N Florida/GA/SC, many look like they will bend W after landfall... HWRF & EURO ensembles I think the NHC can't make any big adjustments a 5pm...

[Steve]

12Z JMA shifts way east and recurves a powerful Florence east of OBX

JMA is more of a surge issue for the coast. It loops to the contour of the dent in the US east coast and is coming back south. That’s a lot of water piling up into the Chesapeake and would be a surge disafater if it landfalled on the second come up.

[txwatcher91]

FWIW the NAVGEM has a Outer Banks landfall and moves it NW into VA.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=51

[Blown Away]

I’m done with the Euro’s West biased solutions, it used to be such a good model, I hope they fix it for next year’s season.

The Euro is the best we got and it's been pretty consistent. I wouldn't get locked in to these other models flopping all over.

[AdamFirst]

The 18Z nam is rolling. checking the Synoptics. assuming some data made it into this run... slightly weaker ridging to the north. but a good deal more ridging over the mainland..

should be interesting.

I was waiting for someone else to mention it, because, well...it's the NAM

[Aric Dunn]

NAM through 48hrs has more ridging extending more to west.

[invest man]

Compared to the 00z EPS the 12z run is much stronger. It also seems like the spread is decreasing:

That's unexpected, 12z more concentrated on CONUS and still leaves large cluster into N Florida/GA/SC, many look like they will bend W after landfall... HWRF & EURO ensembles I think the NHC can't make any big adjustments a 5pm...

I agree no major change NHC likes to be more careful about flip flops and see trends over a longer time. However if they just up date without moving north, then they maybe the southern outlier. Let's see!

[Hurricane Andrew]

FWIW the NAVGEM has a Outer Banks landfall and moves it NW into VA.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=51

Verbatim, that would be very unfortunate for the Chesapeake. And by unfortunate, I mean...

[Blinhart]

FWIW the NAVGEM has a Outer Banks landfall and moves it NW into VA.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=51

Verbatim, that would be very unfortunate for the Chesapeake. And by unfortunate, I mean...

That means the Swamp wouldn't get drained, it would get flooded.

[AutoPenalti]

NAM's ridge looks flat. Not good.

[Sciencerocks]

I'd give it about a 95% chance of making landfall in the United states.

Watch the trend and never trust any one gfs run(or two or three) run. Remember it loves to break the ridge down and everything else is suggesting otherwise.

[MrJames]

UKMET 00Z Ensembles


UKMET 12Z Ensembles

[Blown Away]

UKMET 00Z Ensembles
[img]https://i.imgur.com/VeuCO3c.png

UKMET 12Z Ensembles

You sure those are the most recent Ukmet runs?

[Blown Away]

UKMET 00Z Ensembles
[img]https://i.imgur.com/VeuCO3c.png

UKMET 12Z Ensembles
[img]https://i.imgur.com/bhCaaEv.png[/

You sure those are the most recent Ukmet runs?

[chaser1]

IF anyone thinks the models have a handle on the track. just take a look at the spread just 24 to 36 hours out. that is a large difference in all the ensemble for such a small time period. they cant even nail down the next 24 hours let alone the next 5 days.

As much as people are trying to wishcast this into Florida, the reliable guidance has shifted north and puts NC/SC at highest risk for any threat.
Florida still needs to watch this but the most likely impacts from Florence are the Carolinas.
Balloon data tonight should be interesting but I don’t expect major changes.

I have to agree with you. I see little reasoning to think that most models will significantly change in light of newly ingested data as a result of additional balloon release.

I disagree with your example of wish-casting to include those who believe that potential 594 heights with an expanding orientation could well result in a relative small sized hurricane to be forced on a continued general westward motion, while during a period of time when regional persistence OR fairly clear model dynamic guidance might not suggest otherwise. Now, telling my mom in Miami that she might enjoy a weak cold front next week?? That would certainly be wish-casting LOL. On the other hand telling her there's a slight chance of Hurricane Florence could impact S. Florida is NOT wish-casting, that's just an exercise in prudence. Fact of the matter is that there's many people on this forum from Florida, Texas, East & N.E. CONUS (not to mention others from all over the U.S., Caribbean, and the World). It is understandable and proven human nature for most people to be minimally cognizant but certainly quite focused on those set of events they perceive a potential to impact or affect them. When a storm threatens the Texas coastline, it is logical that a greater percentage of posters that will log on and chime in, will be those who live in Texas or the N. Gulf Coast. Relevance applies to those who question, are concerned, or are simply interested that "they" could be potentially impacted. Whether or not some percentage of Florida Storm2K members might secretly be wishing that Florence come and blow their neighborhoods all to hell is a moot point. Just so long as they limit their own baseless or unsupported homer forecasts or waste unnecessary bandwidth with irrelevant and redundant reference to themselves. Furthermore those who simply ask whether they or others they know might be "at-risk", is equally understandable.

[AutoPenalti]

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