ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[hurricaneCW]

Got to love the Gfs doomsday run, it even gets the northern Mid-Atlantic as it rides the coast.

[jdjaguar]

The trend is not looking good. Live on Emerald Isle which is an island near Morehead City. Lots of peoples are talking about the storm and saw lots of people buying water today.

Personally, I would board up and evacuate before the chaos.

[mcheer23]

Yeah the near 80 inch rain totals are likely over water.

[drewschmaltz]

Got to love the Gfs doomsday run, it even gets the northern Mid-Atlantic as it rides the coast.

I'm not sure the eye comes completely onshore the entire run. Even hr 252, it's sort of still straddling the coastline.

[Hammy]

Quite unsettling to see what appears the Euro and GFS having nearly identical scenarios that only differ by about a hundred miles

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I was hoping the 18z GFS would keep the east trend going Here is to 0z. I did fill up on gas and water just a little while ago. Crazy times ahead that is for sure. Stores still had plenty of stuff around here which is nice.

Yeah, the Walmart had emptied their water stock onto the seasonal aisle, but not great rush for it yet here.

Funny story about that Walmart trip. I had, an obviously older retiree who hasn't lived here long tell me in the parking lot that "At least if the hurricane comes through it will get a lot cooler, and we really need the rain." I looked at her and said "No and No. You're not from 'round here, is ya?" She stuck her nose up, pushed the alarm button on her Prius, and huffed inside. Shrug

[FLeastcoast]

The trend is not looking good. Live on Emerald Isle which is an island near Morehead City. Lots of peoples are talking about the storm and saw lots of people buying water today.

Personally, I would board up and evacuate before the chaos.

I would do the same.

[supercane4867]

Fantasy land it's going to NYC and Boston

[toad strangler]

That’s a doomsday 18z GFS run for OBX. Jesus. Onto the next run and try and think about the verbatim situation there goes against climo. Meanwhile, Prepare, prepare, prepare and have a clear plan for bailing out to safer pastures just in case.

[Visioen]

Euro and GFS seem to reasonably agree, but don't forget what NHC said in it's last discussion about the Euro:

its individual ensemble members are still showing a
significant spread of solutions from just north of the Bahamas to
offshore the coast of North Carolina by day 5

[Ken711]

Got to love the Gfs doomsday run, it even gets the northern Mid-Atlantic as it rides the coast.

I'm not sure the eye comes completely onshore the entire run. Even hr 252, it's sort of still straddling the coastline.

Maybe it will ride the coast like Hurricane Matthew.

[TheDreamTraveler]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1038431753852080128

[Ken711]

In the model runs today neither the Euro or GFS show any deep inland track like say Isabel did in tracking all the way to West Virginia and beyond. Is the there a blocking high that further inland that prevents that?

[wxman57]

A comparison between the 00Z and 12Z ECMWF Ensembles. They're tightening up and zeroing in on the Carolinas. No more track to Houston.

[LarryWx]

Based on the HWRF through hr 54, the 18Z will very likely come in quite a bit further N than the far S outlier 12Z.

[seahawkjd]

[quote="wxman57"]A comparison between the 00Z and 12Z ECMWF Ensembles. They're tightening up and zeroing in on the Carolinas. No more track to Houston. ]

Happy for you all in Houston. Can we come visit? #signedeasternnc

[aperson]

A comparison between the 00Z and 12Z ECMWF Ensembles. They're tightening up and zeroing in on the Carolinas. No more track to Houston.

Interesting that most of the eastmost members now show an anticyclonic loop. It's really hard for this system to find a way OTS.

[MacTavish]

I feel that this is just windshield wiping going on. Remember after the shifts to Florida, the models took Irma out to sea again, only to shift west into the gulf.

Setup with Irma was different and the storms position approaching the US was ideal for the track it took.
I would say it would take a miracle at this point for a hit anywhere south of Jacksonville. Anything is possible though.

I’m sorry but it would hardly take a miracle for Florence to landfall anywhere south of Jacksonville, All it would take is a little longer of the wsw motion that most of the models are forecasting to occur and a slightly stronger ridge oriented a little farther southwest then what is currently being depicted by the models. Is this scenario likely? Of course not but it is far from impossible. The TVCN has been shifting southwest all day and every advisory package the NHC has followed suit in shifting the forecast track southwest. Currently the Mid-Atlantic states are most at risk but a lot can change in 6-7 days.

I know you really wanted to see some wind but.. god favors climatology.. watch the hebert boxes lol

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF is back to the idea of Flo bombing out to a strong CAT5.

[Bocadude85]

Setup with Irma was different and the storms position approaching the US was ideal for the track it took.
I would say it would take a miracle at this point for a hit anywhere south of Jacksonville. Anything is possible though.

I’m sorry but it would hardly take a miracle for Florence to landfall anywhere south of Jacksonville, All it would take is a little longer of the wsw motion that most of the models are forecasting to occur and a slightly stronger ridge oriented a little farther southwest then what is currently being depicted by the models. Is this scenario likely? Of course not but it is far from impossible. The TVCN has been shifting southwest all day and every advisory package the NHC has followed suit in shifting the forecast track southwest. Currently the Mid-Atlantic states are most at risk but a lot can change in 6-7 days.

I know you really wanted to see some wind but.. god favors climatology.. watch the hebert boxes lol

Actually I no longer live in the state of Florida. And if you go by climatology then Florence will be going out to sea.