ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Look folks in my response to monitoring this storm closely, until Florence gets north of Jacksonville's latitude of 30.5, then I will breathe easier.

[jlauderdal]

Just throwing this out there to clarify that all Atlantic ridges, weak and strong, are not created equally. Storm motion has just as much to do with the position and orientation of the ridge axis, as it does its strength.

This is idealized, or course, but a stronger ridge will generally send a TC farther westward at a faster rate of speed, however, this assumes a mostly zonal (W-E) orientation to the ridge. The more meridional (N-S) component there is, or develops, the more poleward a TC can and will move. Even a weaker Atlantic ridge will continue to send a TC generally westward (let's not get into beta-effect or drift ) , just at a slower forward speed, and that motion will continue just as long as there isn't a breach or significant weakness in said ridge.

As recently as irma, gfs had a miss to the east, we know how that turned out and every plane in the air force was in and around that system at some point, lol.. there were multiple planes sampling at the same time

[eastcoastFL]

Recon reports 20nm eye
984mb.
Moving due west
2C Core Temp

She certainly is shaping up quickly. Could you tell if forward speed was any different?

[eastcoastFL]

Just throwing this out there to clarify that all Atlantic ridges, weak and strong, are not created equally. Storm motion has just as much to do with the position and orientation of the ridge axis, as it does its strength.

This is idealized, or course, but a stronger ridge will generally send a TC farther westward at a faster rate of speed, however, this assumes a mostly zonal (W-E) orientation to the ridge. The more meridional (N-S) component there is, or develops, the more poleward a TC can and will move. Even a weaker Atlantic ridge will continue to send a TC generally westward (let's not get into beta-effect or drift ) , just at a slower forward speed, and that motion will continue just as long as there isn't a breach or significant weakness in said ridge.

As recently as irma, gfs had a miss to the east, we know how that turned out and every plane in the air force was in and around that system at some point, lol.. there were multiple planes sampling at the same time

Good point. Irma sent me across the state and then right back to the east coast running from her lol. That wasn't fun.

[eastcoastFL]

Look folks in my response to monitoring this storm closely, until Florence gets north of Jacksonville's latitude of 30.5, then I will breathe easier.

Thats exactly how I feel and I'm about 250 mi to your south

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Textbook structure for a storm that's about to take off.

[eastcoastFL]

The naval map gives an idea of how close she should get to a relevant location based on current track.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1038824127442903042

[GCANE]

Recon reports 20nm eye
984mb.
Moving due west
2C Core Temp

She certainly is shaping up quickly. Could you tell if forward speed was any different?

Not from the second pass of recon. Third pass should be in an hour or so.

Here is Archer which gives the best estimate at this time.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... o_06L.html

[chaser1]

Recon reports 20nm eye
984mb.
Moving due west
2C Core Temp

She certainly is shaping up quickly. Could you tell if forward speed was any different?

That would be key. An acceleration in any direction would lend itself to the increased influence of the steering in place. So far there appears to be little to no model support for the anticipated height rises to extend immediately northwest of Florence and/or build west in tandem with the storm. That of course would be the unanticipated fly in the ointment that those justifyably watching & waiting for that first jog WNW are concerned about.

[Rail Dawg]

Irma last year was a good example of a chase that really went down to the wire as the forecast track changed.

Was heading south on I-75 a good 150 miles north of Tampa and the northbound lanes of 75 were absolutely jammed with traffic from the Miami area.

Every 6 hours Irma's track shifted south finally passing near Marathon.

I ended up in Naples and actually got the rare eye passage with 150mph+ gusts but my targeted area to make a stand changed probably 6 times prior to settling on Naples.

Been forecasting for 40 years and I'm impressed with how far we have come. But even as I head towards Hurricane Florence in the coming days I know where the final stand is made can fluctuate by up to 200 miles,

Been chasing for a very long time but the same scene still gets played over and over again.

Florence is going to cause a mass evacuation of millions of people yet everyone seems to wait too long to make a decision.

Don't be the one in traffic with no gas, water and diapers. Remember there will be NO hotels or gas for hundreds of miles.

I say these words but I'm quite certain in the next few days I'll see the usual fights at the gas stations and grocery stores as desperate people get down to their basic primal instincts.

It's not pretty but had the decision been made to leave early many folks wouldn't put themselves or their families into this dangerous situation.

Sometimes the human element is more dangerous than the storm itself.

Rant off.

[eastcoastFL]

466
URNT12 KWBC 091545
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062018
A. 09/15:21:43Z
B. 24.34 deg N 056.37 deg W
C. NA
D. 984 mb
E. 265 deg 14 kt
F. OPEN E - SE
G. C20
H. 64 kt
I. 011 deg 19 nm 15:16:52Z
J. 095 deg 68 kt
K. 013 deg 16 nm 15:17:45Z
L. 62 kt
M. 192 deg 9 nm 15:23:51Z
N. 279 deg 65 kt
O. 193 deg 8 nm 15:23:38Z
P. 16 C / 2441 m
Q. 18 C / 2490 m
R. 13 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA2 WB06A FLORENCE OB 16
MAX FL WIND 70 KT 060 / 12 NM 14:16:40Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 017 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR


Looks like recon puts the center a bit south.

[mitchell]

OK figured out how to post images.

Storm surge map for Wilmingon, NC:

Uggh...pet peeve of mine is maps without legends.

What do the different colors represent? I assume some type of Cat 1, 2, 3 etc.
Or some number of feet of storm surge? I.e +6, +8, +10 etc.
Are they specific to a particular track, or some Maximum Envelope of Water for all analyzed tracks?
Rainfall flooding included? or ignored as if a major hurricane will landfall and there will ONLY be storm surge and forget the 15 inches of rain.

[chaser1]

Look folks in my response to monitoring this storm closely, until Florence gets north of Jacksonville's latitude of 30.5, then I will breathe easier.

Thats exactly how I feel and I'm about 250 mi to your south

Not one bit unrational. .

[eastcoastFL]

Irma last year was a good example of a chase that really went down to the wire as the forecast track changed.

Was heading south on I-75 a good 150 miles north of Tampa and the northbound lanes of 75 were absolutely jammed with traffic from the Miami area.

Every 6 hours Irma's track shifted south finally passing near Marathon.

I ended up in Naples and actually got the rare eye passage with 150mph+ gusts but my targeted area to make a stand changed probably 6 times prior to settling on Naples.

Been forecasting for 40 years and I'm impressed with how far we have come. But even as I head towards Hurricane Florence in the coming days I know where the final stand is made can fluctuate by up to 200 miles,

Been chasing for a very long time but the same scene still gets played over and over again.

Florence is going to cause a mass evacuation of millions of people yet everyone seems to wait too long to make a decision.

Don't be the one in traffic with no gas, water and diapers. Remember there will be NO hotels or gas for hundreds of miles.

I say these words but I'm quite certain in the next few days I'll see the usual fights at the gas stations and grocery stores as desperate people get down to their basic primal instincts.

It's not pretty but had the decision been made to leave early many folks wouldn't put themselves or their families into this dangerous situation.

Sometimes the human element is more dangerous than the storm itself.

Rant off.

I left palm beach county and went just a little north east of Tampa with wife 2 kids and a dog. Then the day before landfall we packed up and ran home and there were a lot of people doing the exact same thing.

[robbielyn]

As recently as irma, gfs had a miss to the east, we know how that turned out and every plane in the air force was in and around that system at some point, lol.. there were multiple planes sampling at the same time

Good point. Irma sent me across the state and then right back to the east coast running from her lol. That wasn't fun.

In 2004 Charley sent me from west coast to orlando only to come back home

[Rail Dawg]

Uggh...pet peeve of mine is maps without legends.

What do the different colors represent? I assume some type of Cat 1, 2, 3 etc.
Or some number of feet of storm surge? I.e +6, +8, +10 etc.
Are they specific to a particular track, or some Maximum Envelope of Water for all analyzed tracks?
Rainfall flooding included? or ignored as if a major hurricane will landfall and there will ONLY be storm surge and forget the 15 inches of rain.

Good points. I agree legends make a world of difference and I'll work on it.

I tend to look at these maps as if Florence will be a Cat 5 and so will avoid any area that indicates surge.

Anyone here from the Wilmington area? I'd like to hear some local knowledge about flooding.

Thanks.

[chaser1]

OK figured out how to post images.

Storm surge map for Wilmingon, NC:

Uggh...pet peeve of mine is maps without legends.

What do the different colors represent? I assume some type of Cat 1, 2, 3 etc.
Or some number of feet of storm surge? I.e +6, +8, +10 etc.
Are they specific to a particular track, or some Maximum Envelope of Water for all analyzed tracks?
Rainfall flooding included? or ignored as if a major hurricane will landfall and there will ONLY be storm surge and forget the 15 inches of rain.

Could'nt agree more. So much trouble to build the software and create scenario outcomes yet minus communicating the parameters it's based on....storm strength, speed of approach, tides, rainfall, etc

[rickybobby]

Irma last year was a good example of a chase that really went down to the wire as the forecast track changed.

Was heading south on I-75 a good 150 miles north of Tampa and the northbound lanes of 75 were absolutely jammed with traffic from the Miami area.

Every 6 hours Irma's track shifted south finally passing near Marathon.

I ended up in Naples and actually got the rare eye passage with 150mph+ gusts but my targeted area to make a stand changed probably 6 times prior to settling on Naples.

Been forecasting for 40 years and I'm impressed with how far we have come. But even as I head towards Hurricane Florence in the coming days I know where the final stand is made can fluctuate by up to 200 miles,

Been chasing for a very long time but the same scene still gets played over and over again.

Florence is going to cause a mass evacuation of millions of people yet everyone seems to wait too long to make a decision.

Don't be the one in traffic with no gas, water and diapers. Remember there will be NO hotels or gas for hundreds of miles.

I say these words but I'm quite certain in the next few days I'll see the usual fights at the gas stations and grocery stores as desperate people get down to their basic primal instincts.

It's not pretty but had the decision been made to leave early many folks wouldn't put themselves or their families into this dangerous situation.

Sometimes the human element is more dangerous than the storm itself.

Rant off.

I left palm beach county and went just a little north east of Tampa with wife 2 kids and a dog. Then the day before landfall we packed up and ran home and there were a lot of people doing the exact same thing.

I stayed home and never lost power. Was able to watch the strain lol.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Am heading to Wilmington, NC (currently) from Houston Tues morning.

Trying to upload image of the New Hanover County (Wilmington) storm surge map.

How do you do this on this site using an image upload service like Google?

As usual going in loaded for bear.

I give a lot of credence to the NHC forecasts these days.

If you want a tour of Southport, before the storm, let me know.