ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Just throwing this out there to clarify that all Atlantic ridges, weak and strong, are not created equally. Storm motion has just as much to do with the position and orientation of the ridge axis, as it does its strength.

This is idealized, or course, but a stronger ridge will generally send a TC farther westward at a faster rate of speed, however, this assumes a mostly zonal (W-E) orientation to the ridge. The more meridional (N-S) component there is, or develops, the more poleward a TC can and will move. Even a weaker Atlantic ridge will continue to send a TC generally westward (let's not get into beta-effect or drift ) , just at a slower forward speed, and that motion will continue just as long as there isn't a breach or significant weakness in said ridge.

As recently as irma, gfs had a miss to the east, we know how that turned out and every plane in the air force was in and around that system at some point, lol.. there were multiple planes sampling at the same time

Good point. Irma sent me across the state and then right back to the east coast running from her lol. That wasn't fun.

Some peeps went miami to tampa then atlanta back to miami, heavy traffic on all three legs, i stayed as always

[bigdan]

Look folks in my response to monitoring this storm closely, until Florence gets north of Jacksonville's latitude of 30.5, then I will breathe easier.

I am in central Florida and I am not ready to breathe easy yet..There are so many variables still into play at this time.
Read an analogy....Its like a spinning water balloon floating in a swimming pool with numerous people pushing waves at it on the surface and below..and the pool is spinning too!

[WilmingtonSandbar]

OK figured out how to post images.

Storm surge map for Wilmingon, NC:

[i mg]https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/WLPHwM52pEOhi53g3bC6ZaGEJLGWdfj6YCLKG37_6Kscoq4m43NIRN69ThYUjdYB9daqu6FmFw5U52a8X93X1n7Gr0jyQx8KTecN0TsyJ1fcLo4FqidqnfDD7SCZl6lYMQC5MXDChmPLFfZ3NK4EKrzynAgwTTLG6fTittzEXpUpMoTd4GMdTgQ7a1lK52XNVHPRkDGIRdgpwY_frPJWJdJ8ICU_kqCHL2rGxoBipHDtsMAM6z-c80CPmZWCshN240Mlvkrqh5eIw7OzEo1uVWrjedizV51fyypvWhcSr1x98ttIZ1RNsv6A_Y1ZSXBOGpMD2Q-uRfeBtlGv-aCvFzG-lEJMlm02kRvr9yAtteHoh2yDmHGhNp3Bw9mwbTJFcGrVvBlqE9xG5Y_csdCslEFtmunUKfhksfj_6HcgFCvaQlt3Y3il74iA7SImNwx5aMUXa2ylzedVaYllX4gYHkfQW05dQhwP6k_Jv3HiL5xoqtCmxig3P6pZ6wmIoB-GfLUIXfbBjJd-qwHzsXh80k3iBBFx0li_uGzCtHfDBQKIQsGrGMPwq89mGvunfTG9K2d8C5XL_bLEL2A2nr0FxLdh6tSsYKOGuK_rdhFmreB-vKQ1nlY_MCp64uj_6g=w1225-h1582-no[/img]

Is that set for a cat4 or 5?

[eastcoastFL]

I stayed home and never lost power. Was able to watch the strain lol.[/quote]

I lost power for 12 days. Thats the worst part of these storms. Thank god for generators. I wonder how the home depots in the carolinas look like this weekend. I hope they have plenty of generators.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I lost power for 12 days. Thats the worst part of these storms. Thank god for generators. I wonder how the home depots in the carolinas look like this weekend. I hope they have plenty of generators.

Sarasota was still out of power when I left. (I left on Wednesday IIRC, storm hit on Sunday).

[supercane4867]

Maybe closer to 70kt now

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1038831083003858945

[KWT]

Recon found extrap pressure of 981.7mbs on the last pass, also still down at 24.4N as well.

So pressure still dropping at a steady clip at the moment, will be into the 970s soon enough!!

[Blinhart]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1038831083003858945

She is still pointing towards a W/WSW movement for the moment, I don't see her pointing to a turn yet.

[eastcoastFL]

Recon found extrap pressure of 981.7mbs on the last pass, also still down at 24.4N as well.

So pressure still dropping at a steady clip at the moment, will be into the 970s soon enough!!

Not that it matters much but i saw recon at 24.3n

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Uggh...pet peeve of mine is maps without legends.

What do the different colors represent? I assume some type of Cat 1, 2, 3 etc.
Or some number of feet of storm surge? I.e +6, +8, +10 etc.
Are they specific to a particular track, or some Maximum Envelope of Water for all analyzed tracks?
Rainfall flooding included? or ignored as if a major hurricane will landfall and there will ONLY be storm surge and forget the 15 inches of rain.

Good points. I agree legends make a world of difference and I'll work on it.

I tend to look at these maps as if Florence will be a Cat 5 and so will avoid any area that indicates surge.

Anyone here from the Wilmington area? I'd like to hear some local knowledge about flooding.

Thanks.

Absolutely stay away from Racine Dr off of College Rd. That area floods if someone spits. I would also avoid anyplace downtown by the river. It's a huge surge area.

[KWT]

Not that it matters much but i saw recon at 24.3n

Exact location was 2423N 05628W, so a hair below 24.4N (effectively is 24.4 for this purpose.)

[chaser1]

Irma last year was a good example of a chase that really went down to the wire as the forecast track changed.

Was heading south on I-75 a good 150 miles north of Tampa and the northbound lanes of 75 were absolutely jammed with traffic from the Miami area.

Every 6 hours Irma's track shifted south finally passing near Marathon.

I ended up in Naples and actually got the rare eye passage with 150mph+ gusts but my targeted area to make a stand changed probably 6 times prior to settling on Naples.

Been forecasting for 40 years and I'm impressed with how far we have come. But even as I head towards Hurricane Florence in the coming days I know where the final stand is made can fluctuate by up to 200 miles,

Been chasing for a very long time but the same scene still gets played over and over again.

Florence is going to cause a mass evacuation of millions of people yet everyone seems to wait too long to make a decision.

Don't be the one in traffic with no gas, water and diapers. Remember there will be NO hotels or gas for hundreds of miles.

I say these words but I'm quite certain in the next few days I'll see the usual fights at the gas stations and grocery stores as desperate people get down to their basic primal instincts.

It's not pretty but had the decision been made to leave early many folks wouldn't put themselves or their families into this dangerous situation.

Sometimes the human element is more dangerous than the storm itself.

Rant off.

I WISH I had the luxury of not having to adjust positions for each hurricane chase I took part in Hell, even Hugo in Puerto Rico resulted in last moment adjustments. Once winds get to a certain point - that's pretty much it. Interestingly now that I think about it, there seemed way fewer people racing around last minute during that chase, then those I recall seeing here on the mainland. Maybe just a factor of those in P.R. being that much more familier with "knowing the drill".

If I lived anywhere in Eastern S. Carolina, Eastern North Carolina, Eastern Virginia, Delaware, D.C, & Maryland i'd have a list drawn up TODAY of best non-flooded route options, a departure plan that allows ample time to safely take action, specific items & important papers to take with, back up phone batteries/chargers, cash, AND a communication circle so friends, neighbors. & friends are aware of your plan and the means to reach you (and others if they cant).. Down trees, broad power outages, no food or gas supplies, and severe flooding are all potential impacts to many who might never be impacted by the intense severe wind.

[GCANE]

[seahawkjd]

Uggh...pet peeve of mine is maps without legends.

What do the different colors represent? I assume some type of Cat 1, 2, 3 etc.
Or some number of feet of storm surge? I.e +6, +8, +10 etc.
Are they specific to a particular track, or some Maximum Envelope of Water for all analyzed tracks?
Rainfall flooding included? or ignored as if a major hurricane will landfall and there will ONLY be storm surge and forget the 15 inches of rain.

Good points. I agree legends make a world of difference and I'll work on it.

I tend to look at these maps as if Florence will be a Cat 5 and so will avoid any area that indicates surge.

Anyone here from the Wilmington area? I'd like to hear some local knowledge about flooding.

Thanks.

Absolutely stay away from Racine Dr off of College Rd. That area floods if someone spits. I would also avoid anyplace downtown by the river. It's a huge surge area.

There's a parking garage now on the UNCW campus. I'm not sure what kind of permission you'd have to get to be there once the campus closes but its big and made out of concrete.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/wunderground/status/1038833386834382848

[cycloneye]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1220 PM EDT SUN 09 SEPTEMBER 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-108

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 11/0000Z A. 10/2330Z
B. NOAA9 0406A FLORENCE B. AFXXX 0506A FLORENCE
C. 10/1730Z C. 10/1845Z
D. NA D. 25.6N 61.7W
E. NA E. 10/2300Z TO 11/0230Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 72
A. 11/1200Z A. 11/1130Z
B. NOAA9 0606A FLORENCE B. AFXXX 0706A FLORENCE
C. 11/0530Z C. 11/0730Z
D. NA D. 26.4N 64.7W
E. NA E. 11/0500Z TO 11/0830Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON FLORENCE AT 11/2330Z.
B. NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS AROUND
FLORENCE FOR 12/0000Z AND 12/1200Z DEPARTING KLAL AT
11/1730Z AND 12/0530Z.

4. REMARK: ANOTHER 8-HR NOAA P-3 RESEARCH MISSION INTO FLORENCE
MONDAY, DEPARTING TXKF AT 10/1200Z. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

[Javlin]

Is the ridge getting stronger? E. 265 deg 14 kt Recon about 10mph

[GCANE]

A sure sign of strengthening.
Rain rate up to 40 mm/hr creating large latent-heat flux into the core.
Any long duration hot tower would very likely kick off RI.

[GCANE]

Eyewall towers spewing out cirrus is obviously obscuring the eye at this time

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined