ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

Hmm? Sat. orientation a little earlier certainly appeared to show Flo finally looking a bit WNW/ESE tilt oriented. Now appearing a bit more like a number "9" configuration? "Westward ho" we go I guess, at least for the time being.

[dspguy]

I wonder how the home depots in the carolinas look like this weekend. I hope they have plenty of generators.

I can't speak for this time around, but in the lead-up to Hurricane Matthew, people were selling generators in the parking lot outside of Home Depot and Lowe's. They'd buy out the inventory and then try to sell it for double. Or they'd simply move to a nearby parking lot elsewhere and try and sell it. Law enforcement was too focused on the evac routes to be bothered.

Even worse, was the theft. After the storm passed, people in my area didn't have power for about 3-4 days. Not only did I see opportunistic thieves scoping out homes that likely had no one home, but they were very bold. They'd drive by listening for generators and run off with them still running.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/NWSMoreheadCity/status/1038835501040631809

[GCANE]

AMSU analysis of sounder data showing vertical cross section of the core.
Nearly ideal stacked structure.
Shaping up very quickly.

[skillz305]

if this storm doesn’t cross 24.4 tonight does that mean the track will shift back further west? Is Central Florida clear? Or will a WSW motion of Flo put us Floridians at higher risk the longer it trends?

[toad strangler]

:double: if this storm doesn’t cross 24.4 tonight does that mean the track will shift back further west? Is Central Florida clear? Or will a WSW motion of Flo put us Floridians at higher risk the longer it trends?

There are no indications what-so-ever that central and S Fl will be impacted in any way aside from some gnarly waves. Can that change? Never say never but I'd say less than 3% chance ATM

[skillz305]

:double: if this storm doesn’t cross 24.4 tonight does that mean the track will shift back further west? Is Central Florida clear? Or will a WSW motion of Flo put us Floridians at higher risk the longer it trends?

There are no indications what-so-ever that central and S Fl will be impacted in any way aside from some gnarly waves. Can that change? Never say never but I'd say less than 3% chance ATM

There’s countless times we Floridians got told to prepare (in the cone smack dab) just for it to shift 3 days out to Louisiana or NC etc. Just trying to be prepared, get an eerie feeling it we’re getting set up.

[seahawkjd]

:double: if this storm doesn’t cross 24.4 tonight does that mean the track will shift back further west? Is Central Florida clear? Or will a WSW motion of Flo put us Floridians at higher risk the longer it trends?

There are no indications what-so-ever that central and S Fl will be impacted in any way aside from some gnarly waves. Can that change? Never say never but I'd say less than 3% chance ATM

There’s countless times we Floridians got told to prepare (in the cone smack dab) just for it to shift 3 days out to Louisiana or NC etc. Just trying to be prepared, get an eerie feeling it we’re getting set up.

This is true. The difference this time is that there is no trough. The troughs were great because as soon as the storm turned and headed north from the trough interaction it would weaken before it made landfall.

[LarryWx]

Very recently, I think she's actually had a slight northward component to perhaps as N as 24.5N per vis loop (though that could be due to a wobble) but I think recon was still further S near 24.4 on its last pass whenever that was.

[T'Bonz]

I wonder how the home depots in the carolinas look like this weekend. I hope they have plenty of generators.

Even worse, was the theft. After the storm passed, people in my area didn't have power for about 3-4 days. Not only did I see opportunistic thieves scoping out homes that likely had no one home, but they were very bold. They'd drive by listening for generators and run off with them still running.

Yep. When I lived in Fort Lauderdale, we had a thick chain to wrap around a tree. Yeah, they could bring tools and cut the thing, but most are opportunistic, looking for the easy steal.

[LarryWx]

What's the latest recon pressure and position?

[J_J99]

Large convective doughnut around the developing eyewall/ eye.... looks like HH had to make a U-Turn mid center fix, they got 978 MB with 40 kts.

[LarryWx]

Large convective doughnut around the developing eyewall/ eye.... looks like HH had to make a U-Turn mid center fix, they got 978 MB with 40 kts.

Thanks. Do you know the latitude/longitude?

[J_J99]

Large convective doughnut around the developing eyewall/ eye.... looks like HH had to make a U-Turn mid center fix, they got 978 MB with 40 kts.

Thanks. Do you know the latitude/longitude?

They did not get the center..... I think slight wnw.... something happened that made them have to do a u-turn....

If its 978 MB with 40 kts wind this could be 975-974 range....

[J_J99]

Looks like they finally hit center.... odd series of events.

979 MB?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Large convective doughnut around the developing eyewall/ eye.... looks like HH had to make a U-Turn mid center fix, they got 978 MB with 40 kts.

Thanks. Do you know the latitude/longitude?

They did not get the center..... I think slight wnw.... something happened that made them have to do a u-turn....

If its 978 MB with 40 kts wind this could be 975-974 range....

Looks like they doubled back but still didnt see where they got a westerly wind component. That would put the center just a tad south of due west as of the last VM

[JarrodB]

I have seen a lot of storms take a WSW dive once a ridge builds in before going west and wnw. It is possible i suppose for this to happen with Florence. Even if it does happen the chances for north florida strike are nil.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1038845354593198080

[ScottNAtlanta]

Its hard to make out, but there was no west wind when the made their last pass so the center has to be south of there

[eastcoastFL]

Photos from buoy closest to Florence

Data :

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 280 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST):17.5 kts