ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[GeneratorPower]

Slow moving hurricanes are among the worst possible disasters. This could be bad.

[NDG]

The Euro shows even stronger ridging over the NE US right before landfall than the latest GFS shows.

[AtlanticWind]

18z GFS would be the the biggest ACE producer ever

[supercane4867]

18Z GFS goes back and hits Bermuda?

After it hits Bermuda it makes landfall on Newfoundland as a 940mb cyclone

Then it explodes into a 935mb extrapical storm heading for Iceland...

[edu2703]

[Ken711]

18z FV3-GFS appears slightly sw.

[supercane4867]

18z GFS track through day 10

[meriland29]

Does anyone have a forecasted intensity graph?

[Ken711]

Does anyone have a forecasted intensity graph?

[meriland29]

Does anyone have a forecasted intensity graph?

Interesting. I noticed a few maybe a few runs ago were well into the CT 5 range.

[plasticup]

Does anyone have a forecasted intensity graph?

[img ]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/06L_intensity_latest.png[/img]

Well that's terrifying. I don't think I've ever seen a graph like it.

[jlauderdal]

Maybe its the start of (logical ) shift back west for the models. lol

Why would the gfs do that when it can bust through a ridge

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF back to CAT5

[AubreyStorm]

18z HWRF back to CAT5

18z HWRF with Isaac????
Thanks!

[meriland29]

Basically any GFS models that stick offshore or barely over the OBX should not be considered as highly. There are too many variables that signify, heavily-- that this will be west of OBX if not south as well. 18z regular GFS is the first run in quite a few runs that was not an outlier. The biggest question mark now IMO is if it will stall due to 'ridge fight' for days or if it will just move inland with minimal or non-existent stalling. Although both are horrible, especially if she is as strong as most models predict, the 1st outcome is catastrophically worse than the 2nd. The amount of rain predicted (especially over that area which is already water-logged) would be as bad, if not worse than Harvey last year.

[Hurricane Mac]

My understanding is that has to do partially with model runs, but also the time it takes for the NHC to prepare advisories. The times of advisories are 3, 9, 15, and 21z. The reason a 11pm (EDT) advisory comes out at 10:40 or so is because they have it completed prior to the posted time (also for news to prep for the top of the hour). It is also why the position may be slightly off based on what you see on the satellite markers, as it may be 15-60 minutes old by time the package is released.

(This info is based on my experience as a met major at Univ of Miami almost 15 years ago, so take it with a grain of salt).

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Interesting, although in a heartbreaking way, how another entrenched ridge could turn a standard bad hurricane into a disaster of biblical proportions (same as with Harvey last year). It makes a person think how important highs are to synoptic scale weather.

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting, although in a heartbreaking way, how another entrenched ridge could turn a standard bad hurricane into a disaster of biblical proportions (same as with Harvey last year). It makes a person think how important highs are to synoptic scale weather.

especially with zero troughs.. just bouncing around ridges.

[Blinhart]

Interesting, although in a heartbreaking way, how another entrenched ridge could turn a standard bad hurricane into a disaster of biblical proportions (same as with Harvey last year). It makes a person think how important highs are to synoptic scale weather.

especially with zero troughs.. just bouncing around ridges.

Yeah this system could go in and then out and then in and then out, up and down, you never know. Need to find something to steer this system before it just sits there and washes away miles of shoreline.

[toad strangler]

Interesting, although in a heartbreaking way, how another entrenched ridge could turn a standard bad hurricane into a disaster of biblical proportions (same as with Harvey last year). It makes a person think how important highs are to synoptic scale weather.

especially with zero troughs.. just bouncing around ridges.

The zero trough part is what blows my mind.