ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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PTPatrick
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1541 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:11 pm

Nhc disco seems to hint at some factors that can lead to some weaking toward landfall...namely increasing shear. That would certainly be typical of can approaching the Carolinas. They still call for a 4 at landfall, but it will be interesting to see if it can maintain that strength for that long, even over the Gulf Stream if there is ANY shear in the area. They have peak at 72 hours, and it would still have 24 hrs to weaken some more. This of course will all have little effect on the surge and rain.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1542 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:17 pm

Blinhart wrote:
Michele B wrote:
FireRat wrote:Wow Michele b, I hope your niece is ready for this potential beast! Hopefully it doesn't strike there and also hoping for any better case scenarios to occur, but things look so ugly now. We can't take our eyes off of Florence from today onwards, it will be quite a scary time ahead to say the least. :double:


Well, her mother (my sister) and I grew up in S. FL, so we're used to storms, we KNOW to prepare for them....so I'm sure they won't let her and her husband stay in their new house. When they first said they wanted to live "at the beach" I wanted to say DON"T DO IT!!

But what can you say? Peeps are gonna do what they're gonna do.....you can't MAKE someone live where YOU think they should!

At least they have a contingency plan (Asheville) as I said.


Problem with that, the building codes in the Carolina's are nothing like that in Florida. Also a lot of these houses in the Carolina's are over 100 years old and might not survive a Cat 1/2 hurricane. You need to have your sister find out when her house was built and which Building Codes it was built to (Post Andrew Florida plans, Post Hugo Carolina plans, or before those).


I think you are wrong in both building codes and age of construction in coastal areas in the Carolinas.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1543 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:19 pm

PTPatrick wrote:Nhc disco seems to hint at some factors that can lead to some weaking toward landfall...namely increasing shear. That would certainly be typical of can approaching the Carolinas. They still call for a 4 at landfall, but it will be interesting to see if it can maintain that strength for that long, even over the Gulf Stream if there is ANY shear in the area. They have peak at 72 hours, and it would still have 24 hrs to weaken some more. This of course will all have little effect on the surge and rain.


Well, keep in mind that the shear you're thinking of is usually the result of a trough digging in turning the storm more to the north, which also has the benefit of hurling dry air into a hurricane. Isabel, for example, was such a situation.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1544 Postby txwatcher91 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:27 pm

PTPatrick wrote:Nhc disco seems to hint at some factors that can lead to some weaking toward landfall...namely increasing shear. That would certainly be typical of can approaching the Carolinas. They still call for a 4 at landfall, but it will be interesting to see if it can maintain that strength for that long, even over the Gulf Stream if there is ANY shear in the area. They have peak at 72 hours, and it would still have 24 hrs to weaken some more. This of course will all have little effect on the surge and rain.


Timing of EWRC is most likely the biggest factor that will affect her strength at landfall. Shear could weaken her some but I think the EWRC timing will be critical. I remember Harvey completing one and strengthening all the way into landfall, it was about worst case as you can get.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1545 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:30 pm

IIRC haven't there been a few storms forecast to come in as high end 3's or 4's this many days out and then end up significantly weaker? Seems like I remember Isabel and Irene were like this but I don't recall what modeling showing at the time. Neither of those systems looked too healthy at landfall. With the aggressive intensity models for Florence and the NHC forecasting 140mph at landfall it's a downright scary situation for the Carolina's.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1546 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:45 pm

Within my opinion
-I feel pretty good about the track making landfall in the carolina's...Probably a 90% chance, 9% chance for Ga or Florida, 1% of escaping out to sea.

-Intensity, I'll say 99% chance of hurricane at 96-108 hours for landfall and 66% chance of a major hurricane landfall. I'll predict 105 knots at landfall. It is very rare for anything stronger!
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1547 Postby psyclone » Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:46 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:IIRC haven't there been a few storms forecast to come in as high end 3's or 4's this many days out and then end up significantly weaker? Seems like I remember Isabel and Irene were like this but I don't recall what modeling showing at the time. Neither of those systems looked too healthy at landfall. With the aggressive intensity models for Florence and the NHC forecasting 140mph at landfall it's a downright scary situation for the Carolina's.


I wouldn't be surprised if this landfalls as a cat 3. maybe something worse than Fran but less than Hugo. regardless it looks like a massive deal even if it comes in a bit under current forecasts. That's what's so frightening...even if it undershoots current estimates a crusher looks likely.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1548 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:46 pm

It's always interesting to see a storm evolve into a category 4, then ripped apart almost completely and then seeing it become a cat 4 yet again. It's just neat to see the evolution and the changes to both versions since the way Florence looks when she strengthens might look nothing like when she was a cat 4 a few days ago.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1549 Postby emeraldislenc » Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:47 pm

Yes very scary for us. Looks like here at Emerald Isle NC we might be on the right side of the storm. We are hoping for the best.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1550 Postby Rail Dawg » Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:50 pm

NHC calling for 130 kts (150 mph) gusting 160 kts (184 mph) as Florence approaches the coast.

Having chased several majors and been near/in the eye many times there's a phenomenon I've coined "The Fists of God". I've only seen them in gusts over 150mph.

Some of these gusts drop out of the sky in a shape I can only describe as a large fist. You can see them clearly and they are about as wide as a house. They come with a large quantity of water.

They happen sporadically but when they hit something like a large oak or a building they destroy it.

I used to wonder why in some hurricanes some trees/houses would be left standing but others were decimated.

Then I finally witnessed the Fists of God and they gave me a newfound respect for the power of a major hurricane.

Seeing the NHC call for 184 mph gusts near landfall I must admit gets my attention. Been doing this a long time and know how to be safe but at 184 mph I just know it's going to be a sobering sight.

Video in no way can convey the power of winds over 150 mph. It's something you feel in your whole being and to watch 100-year old oak trees uprooted and tossed like sticks is truly incredible.

We are getting down the wire now. Observing not only the weather but the human element before and after never ceases to sober me.
Last edited by Rail Dawg on Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1551 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:51 pm

emeraldislenc wrote:Yes very scary for us. Looks like here at Emerald Isle NC we might be on the right side of the storm. We are hoping for the best.


Do you plan to evacuate?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1552 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:54 pm

Rail Dawg wrote:NHC calling for 130 kts (150 mph) gusting 160 kts (184 mph) as Florence approaches the coast.

Having chased several majors and been near/in the eye many times there's a phenomenon I've coined "The Fists of God". I've only seen them in gusts over 150mph.

Some of these gusts drop out of the sky in a shape I can only describe as a large fist. You can see them clearly and they are about as wide as a house. They come with a large quantity of water.

They happen sporadically but when they hit something like a large oak or a building they destroy it.

I used to wonder why in some hurricanes some trees/houses would be left standing but others were decimated.

Then I finally witnessed the Fists of God and they gave me a newfound respect for the power of a major hurricane.

Seeing the NHC call for 184 mph gusts near landfall I must admit gets my attention. Been doing this a long time and know how to be safe but at 184 mph I just know it's going to be a sobering sight.

Video in no way can convey the power of winds over 150 mph. It's something you feel in your whole being and to watch 100-year old oak trees uprooted and tossed like sticks is truly incredible.

We are getting down the wire now. Observing not only the weather but the human element before and after never ceases to sober me.


When are you heading towards the expected landfall area?

Were you the one driving around helping people during Irma?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Recon Discussion

#1553 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:54 pm

Blinhart wrote:When is the next RECON suppose to reach Florence, and when will they start trying to do more continuous flights?

I really hate the Z time zone thing.


The next two low-level mission fixes are 6:30pm CDT (2330Z) tomorrow (Monday) and 6:30am CDT on Tuesday.
After that, they will be flying missions every 6 hours, beginning with the 6:30pm CDT (2330Z) fix on Tuesday.

These are not the departure times. The actual departure times (section C. in the TCPOD) are 1:45pm CDT tomorrow and 2:30am CDT on Tuesday.

The next low-level mission flight should reach Florence at around 6pm CDT tomorrow (2300Z, see section E.).

One thing that I don't understand is how the departure time for the mission on Tuesday (0730Z) can be later than the scheduled time on station (0500Z-0830Z).
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1554 Postby Rail Dawg » Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:56 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
When are you heading towards the expected landfall area?

Were you the one driving around helping people during Irma?


Leaving early Tuesday morning from Houston.

And yes that was me.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1555 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:59 pm

It'll be weird watching Mark Sudduth from hurricanetrack this time around as it's hitting his hometown of Wilmington (probably). Hopefully everyone doing that type of stuff works together if some bad stuff goes down.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1556 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:01 pm

Rail Dawg wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
When are you heading towards the expected landfall area?

Were you the one driving around helping people during Irma?


Leaving early Tuesday morning from Houston.

And yes that was me.


I thought it was you! I was talling to you between my runs from one side ofbace state to the other and back.

Best of luck and be safe with this one.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1557 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:32 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1558 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:38 pm

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1559 Postby rickybobby » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:43 pm

Is it still moving west?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1560 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:00 am

Image

Nice LG CDO with a B ring trying to form. Getting to the fun part.
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