ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[seahawkjd]

Savannah was placed back just inside the cone of uncertainty by NHC for direct landfall on the very extrerme southern edge per 11 a.m. advisory for a subtle adjustment.

Not seeing Savannah in the cone?

[bcargile]

I just wanted to jump in quickly to say how much I appreciate this site and the insight and expertise from all of you posters. I am in NC with a house in Raleigh and condo in North Topsail Beach, so obviously I am quite nervous right now...

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/DanLindsey77/status/1039166532906049536

[PavelGaborik10]

Recon guesses?
Mines 950mb 125kt, 140kt max FL

My guess is Recon finds a slightly stronger than 115 MPH Storm. I gander Recon finds Florence around 125 MPH, with a pressure around 956.

[northjaxpro]

Charleston. I meant. An oversight I apologize to my Savannah neighbors. The cone line hovers just to their north. Beaufort lies inside of it though.

[ronjon]

NHC gives initial motion of 280 degrees, which is actually slightly north of due west. Due west being 270 degrees.

6 hour average motion would be 280 that do to all the convective wobbling that happened overnight. the hurricane has stablized and resumed the west motion it appears ,... now we watch and see how long this lasts.

From NHC at the 11 am disc:

During the last several hours, Florence has turned westward again, estimated at 11 kt.

[supercane4867]

5 storms soon? History in the making?

[seahawkjd]

Charleston. I meant. An oversight I apologize to my Savannah neighbors. The cone line hovers just to their north. Beaufort lies inside of it though.

Well aware. Watching the governor's press conference right now.

[northjaxpro]

Let me add ,however that it would not shock me one bit to see the Savannah area placed inside that cone later today if that west movement by Florence right now continues the rest of the day.

[Ken711]

I noticed the TVCN and TVCX lines have been adjusted slightly northeast of the NHC track. Is that an indication the NHC may adjust their track east as well?

[ronjon]

Dr. Jeff Masters blog on Florence this morning.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Hurricane-Florence-Rapidly-Intensifying-Likely-Hit-North-or-South-Carolina-Thursday

[BobHarlem]

I noticed the TVCN and TVCX lines have been adjusted slightly northeast of the NHC track. Is that an indication the NHC may adjust their track east as well?

It actually shifted closer to the NHC track at 12z, 6z was further away. Use http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 8&title=06 to see the history of those plots.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Florence is strengthening a lot quicker than anticipated, I wouldn't be surprised if recon finds a 110kt+ storm. Florence is taking full advantage of its excellent structure, increasing SSTs, and low wind shear. The satellite presentation reminds me of a WPAC super typhoon. This *could* hit 140 knots.

[jlauderdal]

Savannah was placed back just inside the cone of uncertainty by NHC for direct landfall on the very extrerme southern edge per 11 a.m. advisory for a subtle adjustment.

No surprise as the system makes westward progress

[Dean4Storms]

A note of interest, if you want to see how the models have suffered forecasting Florence so far just go back to the NHC 5 Day Cone Archive and look at the 3 day cone for Florence back at the 5am Advisory from back on Friday. The Advisory from 3 days ago had Florence at the bottom edge of the 3 day cone at 60W 25N basically where she sits now. So far for the forecast cone, Florence has ridden the southern edge of the 3 day cone forecast from last Friday's Graph at 5am.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/FLORENCE_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

[dspguy]

Charleston. I meant. An oversight I apologize to my Savannah neighbors. The cone line hovers just to their north. Beaufort lies inside of it though.

Ever since the 5 day cone has touched land (8 advisories thus far) Charleston has been in the cone. Savannah has been out of the cone for a few advisories now.

I'm starting to get the feeling that with the lack of true WNW movement (something greater than 280°), the models and NHC track are going to start a slow jog down towards Charleston. However, it is weird that so many models had what I thought was a consensus yesterday - all focused on the area around Wilmington. I don't know the finer details of these model algorithms, but I can only guess that what the Euro picked up on this morning might start to be relfected in other models and that track is going to make a SW shift over time.

[jdjaguar]

Savannah was placed back just inside the cone of uncertainty by NHC for direct landfall on the very extrerme southern edge per 11 a.m. advisory for a subtle adjustment.

No surprise as the system makes westward progress

Savannah is NOT in the latest cone.

[KWT]

A note of interest, if you want to see how the models have suffered forecasting Florence so far just go back to the NHC 5 Day Cone Archive and look at the 3 day cone for Florence back at the 5am Advisory from back on Friday. The Advisory from 3 days ago had Florence at the bottom edge of the 3 day cone at 60W 25N basically where she sits now. So far for the forecast cone, Florence has ridden the southern edge of the 3 day cone forecast from last Friday's Graph at 5am.

That seems to be carrying on as well for the moment with only a hint of northward motion being seen. Needs to get some northerly motion soon if its to hit the next forecast point.

PS, also a 130kts cane in the location it is forecasted is pretty exceptional, regardless of whether it goes one better or not, also scary forecast from the NHC in general, could be yet another cat-4 US landfall, after so many years of not having any...

[Shell Mound]

Florence is strengthening a lot quicker than anticipated, I wouldn't be surprised if recon finds a 110kt+ storm. Florence is taking full advantage of its excellent structure, increasing SSTs, and low wind shear. The satellite presentation reminds me of a WPAC super typhoon. This *could* hit 140 knots.

https://i.imgur.com/IjdvUxr.jpg

If Florence were to attain Cat-5 status, it would represent the northernmost Cat-5 in the Atlantic basin since 1851. As climate change induces warmer SSTs globally, Florence could further confirm the northward shift in intense tropical cyclones over the past several decades. At this point, given the faster-than-expected short-term intensification, I think low-end Cat-5 status is increasingly probable. I think the indications are that the landfall will occur in NC between Oak Island and Morehead City.

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1039173830248484866