ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Kermit HDOB
942.8mb
25.083N 60.267W

[meriland29]

This RI is usually limited, right?

[FLpanhandle91]

Pressure down almost 3mb since last pass.

[NDG]

Latest recon's pass does not find higher winds but pressure continues to drop another 2-3 mb.

164200 2505N 06016W 7166 02428 9428 +191 +130 139022 027 046 003 03

[plasticup]

Kermit HDOB
942.8mb
25.083N 60.267W

Down 3 mb in the last hour?

[MJGarrison]

Kermit HDOB
942.8mb
25.083N 60.267W

Seems to finally gaining a little latitude? More than a wobble.


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[plasticup]

114 kt unflagged SFMR in the north eastern eyewall. She's a monster, for sure.

[galaxy401]

Did recon find a double wind maxima as well?

[plasticup]

163930 2513N 06009W 7354 02388 9667 +152 +137 132124 124 104 014 00
164000 2511N 06011W 7311 02377 9608 +147 +143 132124 125 114 023 00
164030 2510N 06012W 7227 02421 9537 +149 //// 131108 121 113 016 01
164100 2509N 06013W 7233 02374 9471 +177 +146 127066 077 099 006 03
164130 2507N 06014W 7186 02409 9439 +187 +124 132040 047 048 004 00
164200 2505N 06016W 7166 02428 9428 +191 +130 139022 027 046 003 03
164230 2504N 06018W 7178 02413 9431 +191 +110 125006 010 029 004 00
164300 2502N 06018W 7221 02368 9442 +187 +111 286007 013 030 004 00
164330 2500N 06018W 7185 02420 9447 +187 +123 273026 034 036 005 00

[GCANE]

Kermit HDOB
942.8mb
25.083N 60.267W

Down 3 mb in the last hour?

Previous HDOB was 945.0

Really need to get the drop data and vortex message.
Will be interesting to see the eyewall diameter.
On the verge of a pinhole.

Wish Kermit was transmitting their radar data.

[FLpanhandle91]

Did recon find a double wind maxima as well?

Doesn't look like it.

[plasticup]

Did recon find a double wind maxima as well?

Initially I thought so, but I wonder if that was just them moving out a little to approach from the NE

[seahawkjd]

114 kt unflagged SFMR in the north eastern eyewall. She's a monster, for sure.

I think even the emergency managers around here are getting a bit frazzled. (Look at the name for the storm in this official

[FLpanhandle91]

Did recon find a double wind maxima as well?

Initially I thought so, but I wonder if that was just them moving out a little to approach from the NE

Drop in pressure and MSLP is when they turned east I believe.

[NDG]

Amazing satellite presentation.

[SconnieCane]

She's gone full on STY (although the winds don't quite meet the criteria to apply that superlative, yet).

I take back what I said a few days ago about the GFS "Irma-ing" (drastically overdeepening) Florence in this area (although it's now doing it with ~900mb off the OBX). It looks JUST like Irma did as she was gearing up for her assault on the northern Leewards.

[FLpanhandle91]

Flagged 123kt SFMR in southern eyewall.

[chaser1]

Turning..... finally. Fortunately there's no eye reformation or vort max as the cause. I'd be shocked for Flo to revert back to a 270 motion until perhaps shortly prior to landfall maybe.

[FLeastcoast]

Individual models may be flopping around but notice what isn't...the NHC track. it's shown remarkable consistency since it began depicting landfall.

Why do you think that is?

I think it's because, despite having such a tight consensus at this time, landfall is still 4 days away, and there are still some unresolved factors in play. Most importantly, is when do the steering currents break down. If its after landfall, we will see a straight shot in followed by a stall. However, if steering currents break down before landfall, a meandering path like the gfs's could take place. That said, intensity and structural changes could play a significant role in track as well, let alone severity of impact.

Thank you for your reply.

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[plasticup]

Flagged 123 kt SFMR? That's on the south side too.

Does not correlate with flight level winds or the surrounding unflagged values. Unlikely to be real.