ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2201 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:57 pm

What happened to recon? No report in almost 30 minutes.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2202 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:58 pm

toad strangler wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
rickybobby wrote:It’s going west for the past 20 mins. Is that normal?
Hurricanes wobble, totally normal



This. A couple of us noticed the wobble which is NOT a change of direction.
Wobbles at landffall can be the difference of getting the eyewall or not which is a big deal in a major hurricane...can be the difference of your roof staying on vs not
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Recon Discussion

#2203 Postby Chris90 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:58 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:Recon data from AF302 stopped updating right before they entered the NE eyewall...


I don't know if I've ever hit refresh so many times in my life. I really want to know what they've found!
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2204 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:00 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:What happened to recon? No report in almost 30 minutes.


Over in the recon discussion thread, apparently they lost communication just as they were entering the NE eyewall. Hope all is well with them.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2205 Postby sgastorm » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:00 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:What happened to recon? No report in almost 30 minutes.


I was wondering that myself. Must be a comms issue.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Recon Discussion

#2206 Postby dukeblue219 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:00 pm

Here you go:
URNT15 KNHC 110057
AF302 0506A FLORENCE HDOB 37 20180911
003130 2556N 06131W 6969 03024 9894 +101 +100 131085 086 073 005 01
003200 2554N 06132W 6966 03013 9882 +102 +101 130088 089 073 006 00
003230 2553N 06133W 6969 02999 9873 +098 +096 131088 088 072 006 00
003300 2552N 06135W 6969 02988 9858 +099 +096 130092 095 070 006 00
003330 2551N 06136W 6973 02968 9832 +104 +103 131097 099 070 004 01
003400 2550N 06137W 6965 02958 9804 +111 +100 131095 096 073 004 00
003430 2548N 06139W 6969 02936 9784 +118 +099 134099 102 076 004 00
003500 2547N 06140W 6966 02916 9753 +115 +109 134101 102 078 003 00
003530 2546N 06141W 6967 02892 9722 +122 +103 132102 105 085 001 00
003600 2545N 06142W 6965 02862 9682 +131 +086 133110 112 088 000 00
003630 2544N 06144W 6969 02822 9636 +134 +088 132115 117 094 003 00
003700 2543N 06145W 6961 02780 9592 +135 +134 129111 117 101 009 00
003730 2542N 06146W 6971 02716 9539 +129 //// 132100 111 106 002 01
003800 2540N 06147W 6966 02685 9461 +156 +128 134076 091 095 003 00
003830 2539N 06149W 6971 02655 9425 +173 +104 137052 067 065 002 00
003900 2538N 06150W 6967 02652 9409 +179 +097 141028 043 040 001 03
003930 2537N 06152W 6966 02650 9424 +160 +106 136011 022 022 002 00
004000 2536N 06153W 6966 02650 9436 +152 +102 145003 009 020 001 00
004030 2534N 06154W 6970 02653 //// +125 //// 294007 010 022 002 01
004100 2533N 06156W 6973 02663 //// +127 //// 297021 026 028 002 01
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2207 Postby dukeblue219 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:01 pm

sgastorm wrote:
FLpanhandle91 wrote:What happened to recon? No report in almost 30 minutes.


I was wondering that myself. Must be a comms issue.

It's coming in now. Latest update are through 8:41 EDT and include the center pass:

URNT15 KNHC 110057
AF302 0506A FLORENCE HDOB 37 20180911
003130 2556N 06131W 6969 03024 9894 +101 +100 131085 086 073 005 01
003200 2554N 06132W 6966 03013 9882 +102 +101 130088 089 073 006 00
003230 2553N 06133W 6969 02999 9873 +098 +096 131088 088 072 006 00
003300 2552N 06135W 6969 02988 9858 +099 +096 130092 095 070 006 00
003330 2551N 06136W 6973 02968 9832 +104 +103 131097 099 070 004 01
003400 2550N 06137W 6965 02958 9804 +111 +100 131095 096 073 004 00
003430 2548N 06139W 6969 02936 9784 +118 +099 134099 102 076 004 00
003500 2547N 06140W 6966 02916 9753 +115 +109 134101 102 078 003 00
003530 2546N 06141W 6967 02892 9722 +122 +103 132102 105 085 001 00
003600 2545N 06142W 6965 02862 9682 +131 +086 133110 112 088 000 00
003630 2544N 06144W 6969 02822 9636 +134 +088 132115 117 094 003 00
003700 2543N 06145W 6961 02780 9592 +135 +134 129111 117 101 009 00
003730 2542N 06146W 6971 02716 9539 +129 //// 132100 111 106 002 01
003800 2540N 06147W 6966 02685 9461 +156 +128 134076 091 095 003 00
003830 2539N 06149W 6971 02655 9425 +173 +104 137052 067 065 002 00
003900 2538N 06150W 6967 02652 9409 +179 +097 141028 043 040 001 03
003930 2537N 06152W 6966 02650 9424 +160 +106 136011 022 022 002 00
004000 2536N 06153W 6966 02650 9436 +152 +102 145003 009 020 001 00
004030 2534N 06154W 6970 02653 //// +125 //// 294007 010 022 002 01
004100 2533N 06156W 6973 02663 //// +127 //// 297021 026 028 002 01

New Vortex message as well:
URNT12 KNHC 110058
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062018
A. 11/00:40:10Z
B. 25.59 deg N 061.89 deg W
C. 700 mb 2613 m
D. 945 mb
E. 180 deg 11 kt
F. OPEN SW
G. C16
H. 106 kt
I. 049 deg 8 nm 00:37:30Z
J. 131 deg 117 kt
K. 049 deg 11 nm 00:36:30Z
L. 92 kt
M. 221 deg 8 nm 00:42:30Z
N. 292 deg 96 kt
O. 221 deg 8 nm 00:42:30Z
P. 14 C / 3053 m
Q. 18 C / 3043 m
R. 11 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF302 0506A FLORENCE OB 15
MAX FL WIND 117 KT 049 / 11 NM 00:36:30Z
Last edited by dukeblue219 on Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2208 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:03 pm

definitely more of wnw motion the last few hours. 275 to 280 ish.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Recon Discussion

#2209 Postby Chris90 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:09 pm

NE eyewall seems to have come down a bit with the max flight level of 117kts and SFMR of 106kts. The eyewall drop measured a 135kt gust only 1mb above the surface though, so she's still packing quite a punch.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2210 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:09 pm

Although FL and SFMR winds don't indicate strengthening, the dropsonde in the NE eyewall just recorded 135 kt winds 1 mb (~25 feet) above the surface.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2211 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:13 pm

The ongoing EWRC is the reason for its lapse in strengthening this evening. It should resume tomorrow.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Recon Discussion

#2212 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:15 pm

At least at this moment,the pressure is not dropping as it has stabilized for now as it goes thru the replacement cycle.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2213 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:16 pm

Hello eyewall replacement.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2214 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:17 pm

In the clear rain rate: 55mm/hr
I think that is the highest so far for Flo

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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2215 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:19 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:Hurricanes wobble, totally normal



This. A couple of us noticed the wobble which is NOT a change of direction.
Wobbles at landffall can be the difference of getting the eyewall or not which is a big deal in a major hurricane...can be the difference of your roof staying on vs not


Yes sir. But we are a thousand or so miles out. A few of us noticed a possible wobble. Which we know is NOT a change of direction. Just to clarify for the ones who thought we were saying otherwise.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2216 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:23 pm

not sure that is a ERC>. looks like dry air got pulled..
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2217 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:24 pm

Definitely has lost a small bit of its impressive core structure since this afternoon when it finished the round of explosive strengthening; I expect a jaw-dropping structure to resume once it finishes ERC and contracts a bit.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2218 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:24 pm

toad strangler wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
toad strangler wrote:

This. A couple of us noticed the wobble which is NOT a change of direction.
Wobbles at landffall can be the difference of getting the eyewall or not which is a big deal in a major hurricane...can be the difference of your roof staying on vs not


Yes sir. But we are a thousand or so miles out. A few of us noticed a possible wobble. Which we know is NOT a change of direction. Just to clarify for the ones who thought we were saying otherwise.
Correct, its tracking around 280, nhc doing well as usual, maybe nc gets lucky and it stays offshore, unlikely
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2219 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:24 pm

The upcoming EWRC is pretty much expected and Flo may go through multiple EWRCs in the future. More strengthening is expected after this EWRC finishes, which likely will be a quick and smooth one as aided by favorable conditions.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2220 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:26 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:not sure that is a ERC>. looks like dry air got pulled..


Recon didn't mention anything in their last vortex message
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