ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Here’s an interesting scenario, as Florence approaches the Carolinas what would happen if it stalls like 100miles SE of landfall does a loop there and ends up making landfall well south of what is forecast, that would not be good, and some 18zGFS ensembles do just that so we need to watch for that

The gfs seems to be an outlier and I think thats why they are discounting those solutions. Are any other models predicting this?

[Hurricaneman]

Here’s an interesting scenario, as Florence approaches the Carolinas what would happen if it stalls like 100miles SE of landfall does a loop there and ends up making landfall well south of what is forecast, that would not be good, and some 18zGFS ensembles do just that so we need to watch for that

The gfs seems to be an outlier and I think thats why they are discounting those solutions. Are any other models predicting this?

The 0zCanadian is somewhat and some ensembles of the 12zEPS aka Euro ensembles but those are closer to the OBX

[PavelGaborik10]

con

Is the shear increasing to her NW just too weak to have an effect?

Unfortunately I just don't think Shear will ever become a significant issue for Florence looking at those maps.....Maybe it'll pull a Hurricane Bill from nearly a decade ago and just continue to attempt to complete an EWRC on a daily basis and fail. P

[Vdogg]

Is the shear increasing to her NW just too weak to have an effect?

NHC said the sheer will affect it, but they still expect it to be a major at landfall.

[meriland29]

Does anyone have a recent microwave pass of her? That would be the most telling...

[ncbird]

Sat Sept 15 will mark my 15th anniversary with Storm2k. I most likely will be without electric or internet that day, so figured I would post this now.

It was Hurricane Isabel back in 2003 that led me to to this wonderful website. Here I am, almost 15 yrs later, with yet another hurricane that has it's eye set upon paying me a visit.

To all the mods and those who put in the time and hard work to keep this wonderful informative site up and running, to the many pro mets who freely share their vast wealth of knowledge , and to the regular posters who reach out to others to answer questions and bring a little comfort and peace of mind during very stressful times, I just want to say thank you, for all you do.

To all my many friends in the path of this monster of a storm, stay safe. My thoughts are with you all as we weather out this force of mother nature.

[eastcoastFL]

Wow I just saw what you were talking about. The gfs FV3 lands on OBX comes back out hits SC and its still over western NC 7 days from now. Talk about worse case!

Here’s an interesting scenario, as Florence approaches the Carolinas what would happen if it stalls like 100miles SE of landfall does a loop there and ends up making landfall well south of what is forecast, that would not be good, and some 18zGFS ensembles do just that so we need to watch for that

The gfs seems to be an outlier and I think thats why they are discounting those solutions. Are any other models predicting this?

The 0zCanadian is somewhat and some ensembles of the 12zEPS aka Euro ensembles but those are closer to the OBX

[aperson]

Is the shear increasing to her NW just too weak to have an effect?

The outflow of the system will show up as shear on these maps. If you track back through the 3hr intervals on that map you can watch it step alongside the system. So unfortunately that's not going to count as real shear.

[arkestra]

Florence still heading to Florence...

[ConvergenceZone]

It definitely looks like it's about to make a run at a Cat 5. Looks better than it did several hours ago.

[eastcoastFL]

Does anyone have a recent microwave pass of her? That would be the most telling...

[emeraldislenc]

Well said ncbird this is such a great site. Thanks to everyone who makes it possible!

[eastcoastFL]

Is the shear increasing to her NW just too weak to have an effect?

The outflow of the system will show up as shear on these maps. If you track back through the 3hr intervals on that map you can watch it step alongside the system. So unfortunately that's not going to count as real shear.

I never knew that. Thanks!

[eastcoastFL]

Well said ncbird this is such a great site. Thanks to everyone who makes it possible!

Are you evacuating tomorrow?

[emeraldislenc]

No I will not be evacuating tomorrow. I will not be able too.

[ncbird]

Well said ncbird this is such a great site. Thanks to everyone who makes it possible!

Are you evacuating tomorrow?

Yes, I am going to run for safer ground with this one. She is a little to much for my cone of comfort.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

No I will not be evacuating tomorrow. I will not be able too.

Good luck then. Our thoughts are with you. Hopefully, something good will yet happen.

[galaxy401]

No I will not be evacuating tomorrow. I will not be able too.

Be very careful. If that GFS model is true, it will be a living nightmare over there. Best wishes.

[eastcoastFL]

No I will not be evacuating tomorrow. I will not be able too.

Well I hope you're safe during the storm. Silver lining...maybe you get to meet Jim Cantore.

[TheDreamTraveler]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_06L/web/gifsBy12hr_12.gif

Does anyone have a recent microwave pass of her? That would be the most telling...

That's gonna be a huge eye :o