ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[EquusStorm]

Guess it's a good thing that South Carolina has taken evacuations for this pretty seriously given trends

[artist]

[GTStorm]

12z Euro 120 hrs in Savannah GA....Didnt see that coming.

Apologies for the off-topic response...but you've gotta be kidding me.

what's the Euro picking up on?

[SouthFLTropics]

Stop the presses...I can't imagine anyone saw this coming. This potentially changes everything and just goes to show that when a system falls into a weak steering environment that it can lead to major ramifications and uncertainties in the track. I can't recall what time the Euro ensembles come out...Anyone have anything on those yet?

[mcheer23]

Stop the presses...I can't imagine anyone saw this coming. This potentially changes everything and just goes to show that when a system falls into a weak steering environment that it can lead to major ramifications and uncertainties in the track. I can't recall what time the Euro ensembles come out...Anyone have anything on those yet?

About an hour til those come out

[bamajammer4eva]

How does the Euro also show what will become 96L travel south THROUGH Helene then come out the other side and turn west? It may be a fluke run all around.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[chaser1]

We don't know if there's no landfall, the images are 24 hours apart.

Actually, it is run twice a day, so 12 hours, but your point is well taken.

I am in N FL. Could my area come back into play??

Unlikely but possible. If you're around Daytona to Jax, your odds might have increased from 1.4532 % to possibly 6%. It's such a blocky pattern that if the EURO were on to something, there's not a world of difference between a stall and southwest motion toward Savannah and a motion that might drive Florence a but further south. Still, I wouldn't cancel Uncle Barth's 101st Birthday outdoor lunch quite yet though. Now, if the infamous (does it really still even exist?) FSU model, and/or latter GFS, UK, or Canadian models chime in with a stall further offshore before a due west (WSW or SW) drift occurs then you might wanna book some indoor go-cart track for Uncle Barth as a back-up plan

[Blinhart]

Actually, it is run twice a day, so 12 hours, but your point is well taken.

I am in N FL. Could my area come back into play??

Unlikely but possible. If you're around Daytona to Jax, your odds might have increased from 1.4532 % to possibly 6%. It's such a blocky pattern that if the EURO were on to something, there's not a world of difference between a stall and southwest motion toward Savannah and a motion that might drive Florence a but further south. Still, I wouldn't cancel Uncle Barth's 101st Birthday outdoor lunch quite yet though. Now, if the infamous (does it really still even exist?) FSU model, and/or latter GFS, UK, or Canadian models chime in with a stall further offshore before a due west (WSW or SW) drift occurs then you might wanna book some indoor go-cart track for Uncle Barth as a back-up plan

The FSU computer models do still exist, but only pro meteorologist are allowed to see them.

[chaser1]

12z Euro 120 hrs in Savannah GA....Didnt see that coming.

Apologies for the off-topic response...but you've gotta be kidding me.

what's the Euro picking up on?

Someone must've snagged a couple of those extra weather balloons to huff the helium out of 'em - Gulfstream, get back up there!!

[ChucktownStormer]

12z EC all the way to Savannah?

Oh, that's just the place I'm evacuating to...

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Stop the presses...I can't imagine anyone saw this coming. This potentially changes everything and just goes to show that when a system falls into a weak steering environment that it can lead to major ramifications and uncertainties in the track. I can't recall what time the Euro ensembles come out...Anyone have anything on those yet?

About an hour til those come out

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... rence.html

[PTPatrick]

This would’ve a positive development from a surge perspective. If the storm doesn’t fully move onshore in NC the full surge likely wouldn’t come in yet...although it would still be a large surge just east where the center parks for a bit and it wouldn’t go down for a couple days due to continuous onshore fetch. So I guess the trade of it stopping short of landfall would be slightly lower overall level, but probably longer duration surge event. But the surge in SC on that track would be minimal due to prolonged offshore fetch for days.

[SunnyThoughts]

Unbelievable, usually when we get to 3 days from landfall, there is at least some agreement with all the models. I guess some may say anywhere from NC to GA is "some" agreement, but sheesh. Hopefully this run had a glitch or some sort...but with all the new information being fed into the models with all the high altitude flights, dropsondes, etc...This may turn out to be correct.

[BobHarlem]

This would’ve a positive development from a surge perspective. If the storm doesn’t fully move onshore in NC the full surge likely wouldn’t come in yet...although it would still be a large surge just east where the center parks for a bit and it wouldn’t go down for a couple days due to continuous onshore fetch. But the surge in SC on that track would be minimal due to prolonged offshore fetch for days.

If the eye diameter is as big as the HWRF indicates, I'm not so sure about that

[tolakram]

12Z Euro

[chaser1]

Guess it's a good thing that South Carolina has taken evacuations for this pretty seriously given trends

That model run could bring hurricane force gusts to Virgina, N.C., S.C., & GA. Heck, any further shift and you'd minimally have Gale Warnings for extreme N. Fla. offshore waters too. Be quite interesting to see the ensembles as well as tonight's EURO run

[Ken711]

So is the ridging that much stronger inland to the west forcing the SW track this run?

[Raebie]

Guess it's a good thing that South Carolina has taken evacuations for this pretty seriously given trends

Yeah, but a lot of the SC folks have evacuated to northern GA.

[northjaxpro]

So is the ridging that much stronger inland to the west forcing the SW track this run?

Based on the 12Z EURO run, yes!!

[chaser1]

This would’ve a positive development from a surge perspective. If the storm doesn’t fully move onshore in NC the full surge likely wouldn’t come in yet...although it would still be a large surge just east where the center parks for a bit and it wouldn’t go down for a couple days due to continuous onshore fetch. But the surge in SC on that track would be minimal due to prolonged offshore fetch for days.

If the eye diameter is as big as the HWRF indicates, I'm not so sure about that

I disagree. On that track and with a very slow motion, I'd thing that there could be a tremendous surge in the northern quad. as the center were to slide southward (especially if timed with the seasonal high tides anticipated later this week)