
ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
700mb, Flight-Level winds, obviously expanding out now.


0 likes
- ConvergenceZone
- Category 5
- Posts: 5194
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
- Location: Northern California
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
Just my opinion only, but just as I said yesterday, I think this will make landfall as a Cat 2 or Cat 3. But that is still an incredibly strong storm. So I hope everyone is prepared.
0 likes
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
ConvergenceZone wrote:Just my opinion only, but just as I said yesterday, I think this will make landfall as a Cat 2 or Cat 3. But that is still an incredibly strong storm. So I hope everyone is prepared.
Seems more likely at this point, but with a Cat 4 surge.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 65
- Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2011 1:14 pm
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
panamatropicwatch wrote:WYNweather wrote:Buoy 41002 today
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 10.2 ft
Watch Buoy station 41002 Yesterday at 10am was only 5.2
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41002
Was just looking at that buoy. It will be interesting to watch the readings. Almost in the direct path of Florence.
Been watching for a few days. There is one north " As of 13:10Z, 08/30/2018, the buoy at station 41048 has gone adrift. Data will be restored during our next service visit to this location."
The one to the south watched last night. #41047
Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 260 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.85 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.10 in ( Rising Rapidly )
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
- Location: Nags Head, NC
- Contact:
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
The only concern that I have now is if Flo is so powerful and has created it own environment that it's momentum allows for a more north track. I'm sure that the Mets here will tell me why that won't happen.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 222
- Age: 79
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 8:13 am
- Location: Amelia Island Florida
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
sponger wrote:Guess we are getting ready to find out how seriously the NHC takes 2 Euro runs in a row. If they verified, TS watch would need to be issued all the way to Fernandina Beach FL. At the very least to Brunswick GA. Certainly Savannah is well in play.
If forward speed slows, or if the NHC thinks it will, you will probably be correct.
0 likes
- ConvergenceZone
- Category 5
- Posts: 5194
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
- Location: Northern California
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
sponger wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:Just my opinion only, but just as I said yesterday, I think this will make landfall as a Cat 2 or Cat 3. But that is still an incredibly strong storm. So I hope everyone is prepared.
Seems more likely at this point, but with a Cat 4 surge.
I agree. And a Cat 2 is still dangerous. And the flooding itself is going to be really really bad.
0 likes
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
Ken711 wrote:
Don't want to be anywhere close to Florence on a ship that's for sure.
First clue that your day is really gonna suck? The point when you lose your paddle while attempting to read a sea-salt encrusted altimeter, as your tandem kayak begins to crest yet another 83' wave. hashtag #peanutbutterandjellysandwichanyone

2 likes
Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
ConvergenceZone wrote:sponger wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:Just my opinion only, but just as I said yesterday, I think this will make landfall as a Cat 2 or Cat 3. But that is still an incredibly strong storm. So I hope everyone is prepared.
Seems more likely at this point, but with a Cat 4 surge.
I agree. And a Cat 2 is still dangerous. And the flooding itself is going to be really really bad.
It depends on the exact location of initial landfall. If she makes landfall near Wilmington with faster foward speed it would likely remain a strong CAT3. If she stalls offshore and doesn't make the landfall until SC then it could weaken to a CAT1
1 likes
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
Mouton wrote:sponger wrote:Guess we are getting ready to find out how seriously the NHC takes 2 Euro runs in a row. If they verified, TS watch would need to be issued all the way to Fernandina Beach FL. At the very least to Brunswick GA. Certainly Savannah is well in play.
If forward speed slows, or if the NHC thinks it will, you will probably be correct.
Looks like not biting yet! Lets see what the 2pm Euro brings.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
NHC 11 a.m. advisory has the NC/SC border as the landfall area for now. But this is very subject to change given the recent trends.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
WYNweather wrote:Buoy 41002 today
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 10.2 ft
Watch Buoy station 41002 Yesterday at 10am was only 5.2
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41002
84 F water temperature ? That is a hot day in summer for us

1 likes
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
chaser1 wrote:Ken711 wrote:
Don't want to be anywhere close to Florence on a ship that's for sure.
First clue that your day is really gonna suck? The point when you lose your paddle while attempting to read a sea-salt encrusted altimeter, as your tandem kayak begins to crest yet another 83' wave. hashtag #peanutbutterandjellysandwichanyone
I think that report is a strong indicator that the surge is going to be at extreme levels.
1 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 222
- Age: 79
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 8:13 am
- Location: Amelia Island Florida
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
Slowing at 11am advisory but heading increased a few degrees to the north, heading NW now. Don't know what to make of that. Just about at 30 n latitude.
0 likes
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
northjaxpro wrote:NHC 11 a.m. advisory has the NC/SC border as the landfall area for now. But this is very subject to change given the recent trends.
And it keeps the center offshore for another day. Very small change in terms of mileage, but obviously a huge change in terms of effects.
0 likes
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 23
- Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:09 pm
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
Did you all see the lady and her 3 little girls interviewed on MSNBC saying they are going to stay because most of her neighbors are staying because there’s “strength in numbers”?
This is starting to remind of that idiot who took her kids to the Sea Wall in Galveston the day Ike made landfall.
This is starting to remind of that idiot who took her kids to the Sea Wall in Galveston the day Ike made landfall.
1 likes
- FLpanhandle91
- Category 5
- Posts: 1033
- Age: 34
- Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
- Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
NHC bit on the Euro's guidance although not as far of a SW drift.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
The exact location that the center comes onshore really doesn't matter at this point. The huge eye will cover parts of the entire southen NC/northern SC coastline as shown by HWRF. NC coast will likely recive major hurricane conditions whether it stalls offshore or not.


1 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests