ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[edu2703]

[meriland29]

NHC predicts the sheer to move out and she would have 1 last chance at strengthening...but cause of the state she is in currently, don't exlect her to respond in time

[ozonepete]

Something else to watch. While the current ERC makes it more difficult to track, it sure looks like it is turning more westward. If so, it may loop or stall way before it reaches the coast - a whole 'nother twist to consider. Look at the current steering winds from CIMSS for a TC of Florence's strength. It may be starting its southward turn way before we thought it would. Just another thought.

[url=https://imgur.com/4nZNNit][url]http://i.imgur.com/4nZNNit.gif[

Any chance that could cause it to get ejected out to sea without coming ashore, or would it simply delay landfall and push it further south?

The latter, unfortunately. This doesn't have many offshore options but any delay in coming ashore could possibly have it arrive weaker when it landfalls.

[Laminar]

Hope they managed to get the next of kin details for the yacht crew.
Nice job trying to help.

[MrStormX]

You can see towers firing as she tries to fire up, but she's being crushed by that front to the south.

My intermediate eyes can't see how she's a cat 3 now let alone in the morning.

I know its academic at this point for the rain threat and a large portion of the surge threat. But, the WIND looks like its falling apart and has for quite some time now.

Even the pros here seem to think she's going to weaken most if not all the way in.

I REALIZE its still a TERRIBLE storm and will certainly cause people to lose their lives in historic flooding and trees in basically wet mud will be toppling like bowling pins.

I'm just asking for someone knowledgeable to tell me I'm wrong and why.

Please don't listen to anything I say. Rely on NHC producs for decision making.

Sure, the wind in the eyewall is decreasing, but on the whole the wind is spreading farther out from the core. This could mean a greater wind impact over a wider area, depending upon the storm's structure at landfall.

Yes, at the moment it appears that this is a borderline category 2/3 based on recon and the rising pressures that we have been a witness too, but it could easily strengthen again as convection continues to reform around the weakness in the eye.

As for the pros in this thread who have been saying that this storm is going to continue to weaken, I would like to hear their rationale behind this. It is not that I doubt them, but I would like to hear the science behind their reasoning. From what I can see, the SSTs are still strong enough to support a major hurricane, the storm still has good outflow channels, the wind shear is not extreme, and the eye wall continues to have fresh bursts of convection. I am a professional Geographer, not a meteorologist, but my novice meteorological skills leads me to believe that there aren't any blatant reasons to believe that this storm will continue to rapidly weaken as it approaches land.

[Rail Dawg]

Am giving thought now to bailing out from Wilmington.

It’s a tough decision.

[hurricaneCW]

She's trying something right now, core looks a lot healthier than a few hours ago, not sure if it'll make a difference though.

[psyclone]

Look how slow the movement is predicted to be over se nc. a full day pounding

[jaxfladude]

[quote="ozonepete"]Something else to watch. While the current ERC makes it more difficult to track, it sure looks like it is turning more westward. If so, it may loop or stall way before it reaches the coast - a whole 'nother twist to consider. Look at the current steering winds from CIMSS for a TC of Florence's strength. It may be starting its southward turn way before we thought it would. Just another thought.

Yikes and this is from one of our Pro-Mets
This hurricane is weird, stay tuned....Prayers....hope this hurricane is not as bad it is feared to be in all possible aspects....

[Cuda]

Something else to watch. While the current ERC makes it more difficult to track, it sure looks like it is turning more westward. If so, it may loop or stall way before it reaches the coast - a whole 'nother twist to consider. Look at the current steering winds from CIMSS for a TC of Florence's strength. It may be starting its southward turn way before we thought it would. Just another thought.

Yikes and this is from one of our Pro-Mets
This hurricane is weird, stay tuned....Prayers....hope this hurricane is not as bad it is feared to be in all possible aspects....

Any idea what a stalling further off shore would do in terms of intensity and damages?

[Michele B]

Thank you for your warm welcome Michelle B! Yes, that "O No, Charley isn't going to Tampa" moment is burned into my memory. My home was (emphasis on was) on the water in Bokeelia, right on the Gulf. There was an older meteorologist with NBC-2 (Fort Myers) at the time, who bravely broke with the NHC Tampa forecast for Charley and correctly predicted the sharp right turn and intensity increase. Don't remember his name, but I know he saved lives, probably mine. With all the technology at our fingertips, hurricanes outsmart us every time

That was Jim Ferrell (WINK 11) for us. HE was the one who knew what was happening when it made the right turn, and told everyone it was! I saw it, too, and knew he was right.

What I DIDN'T know at the time, was, every time a storm comes up on the west coast of FL, IT IS GOING TO DO THE SAME EXACT THING! Why? Because that's where the Peace River dumps out, and it's very WARM WATER and hurricanes loooove warm water! So it follows it right on up!

[curtadams]

This is reminding me some of Francis 2004, which was also a strong Cat 4 which weakened due to unfavorable air conditions and landfell on the US as a big and slow-moving Cat 2. It didn't do much if any of the photogenic catastrophic damage of roofs ripped off by wind or houses stripped to the foundation by surge but it still did billions in property damage and killed 6 people directly according to Wiki.

[jaxfladude]

Something else to watch. While the current ERC makes it more difficult to track, it sure looks like it is turning more westward. If so, it may loop or stall way before it reaches the coast - a whole 'nother twist to consider. Look at the current steering winds from CIMSS for a TC of Florence's strength. It may be starting its southward turn way before we thought it would. Just another thought.

Yikes and this is from one of our Pro-Mets
This hurricane is weird, stay tuned....Prayers....hope this hurricane is not as bad it is feared to be in all possible aspects....

Any idea what a stalling further off shore would do in terms of intensity and damages?

I don know, but, one of the Pro-Mets might....hard to tell about anything when dealing Florence

[NDG]

First sign that it is starting to slow down, per the latest fix by the recon it moved at average of 13.5 mph, down from 17 mph from the previous fix.

[Steve]

Look how slow the movement is predicted to be over se nc. a full day pounding

That’s the thing. Power lines and poles are done for at least a few days to a week. Trees come down. Roofs rip. Endless projectiles smashing into everything. Consider Baton Rouge catching an hour or two of Gustav’s northern eyewall 60-70 miles inland and multiply that time by 10 and pile on much stronger winds. Gonna be some wind damage in those areas regardless of wind speed though obviously correlated to how strong the winds are.

[Michele B]

Something else to watch. While the current ERC makes it more difficult to track, it sure looks like it is turning more westward. If so, it may loop or stall way before it reaches the coast - a whole 'nother twist to consider. Look at the current steering winds from CIMSS for a TC of Florence's strength. It may be starting its southward turn way before we thought it would. Just another thought.

[url]http://i.imgur.com/4nZNNit.gif [/url]

Uh, THAT would definitely NOT be good for Florida!

BTW, on another forum today - talking about the hurricane, but NOT scientific in any way - but anyway, someone was saying that ANTS are crawling into their house and CLIMBING. That that's never happened before.

It came from two different posters in Orlando AND Sanford, FL. Why should we care? Because NATURE has a way of knowing things we can't figure out with all the sophisticated equipment we pour lots and lots of money into!

Maybe FL will be getting lots of rain? Not saying it's from Florence, but I know critters and Mother nature have ways of knowing things that we'll never understand.

[SouthFloridawx]

Is your residence in a mandatory evacuation zone?

Am giving thought now to bailing out from Wilmington. It’s a tough decision.

[FLeastcoast]

Yes I remember the old hurricane maps and you wouid plot them. Things have really changed.!

"Ditto"! One of my fondest memories was the anticipation for June 1 to approach, and excitedly waiting for my dad to come home with the Sunday Miami Herald "Hurricane Edition"! A whole section exclusively designed with hurricane related articles and of course a map insert. I think a number of local restaurant chains may have also distributed hurricane maps at the beginning of the season too.

As for Florence, I'm just getting caught up on today's advisories and updates. Just looking at satellite late this evening, i'd say that Flo's weakening trent has stopped and am seeing what looks like a decent contraction of her eye along with it becoming better imbedded within a larger and more symmetric eye wall/CDO

I remember those plotting maps too. I also remember that whenever there was a hurricane, my grandma and great aunts would come stay with us. They had a bunch of small dogs and they used to pay me and my brother a quarter to walk them outside during the hurricane! I recall many, many times hanging on to my brother so we wouldn't get blown over. aaah the good old days. lol

[GeneratorPower]

Is your residence in a mandatory evacuation zone?

Am giving thought now to bailing out from Wilmington. It’s a tough decision.

I think he’s a storm chaser who is in Wilmington and wishing he wasn’t.

[Michele B]

Am giving thought now to bailing out from Wilmington.

It’s a tough decision.

Lots of factors. How strong is your home? Can you board up? Are you in a flood zone? Were you asked to evacuate (even voluntarily)?

Will you be able to handle it without power - maybe without water or other services - for possibly several days (or more)?