2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
18z FV-3 GFS has a strengthening 982mb hurricane heading north just east of Jamaica @ 384hrs.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
boca wrote:gatorcane wrote:Hurricaneman wrote:Its trying to pull a Wilma on the GFS if you account for truncation. If something that strong happens the Western Caribbean is the place to do it unfortunately
Classic Western Caribbean October monster on simulated IR...thankfully 384 hours out:
But it could be a large storm if it develops, the model expands it as it pulls out of the NW Caribbean:
https://i.postimg.cc/bvkTL36d/gfs_ir_watl_53.png
How do you get that superimposed pic from the GFS model?
On the Tropical Tidbits model page go to the GFS model and under the Upper Dynamics section click Simulated IR Satellite.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
canes92 wrote:What general path do the models show the storms taking? Towards Gulf, TX or FL?
Of course this is way too far out to have even the slightest bit of certainty, but generally speaking, the beginning of October, Texas starts getting cool fronts, slowly closing the door to Texas threats. It does and has happened though, but as we creep closer to October, a Texas threat decreases. Factually, Texas has historically only had two hurricanes between 1900 and 2000 in October.
Last edited by SoupBone on Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Looks like no development on the 00Z but the EPAC now has a major.
EDIT: Actually timing for development has been pushed back, now has a strengthening TS heading NW towards the Cayman Islands and Cuba.
EDIT: Actually timing for development has been pushed back, now has a strengthening TS heading NW towards the Cayman Islands and Cuba.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Tue Sep 18, 2018 12:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Growing consensus on something forming in the W. Caribbean moving North.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Though not as active as the very active Happy Hour GEFS (no surprise), the 0Z GEFS still has a decent # of TS+s
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
GFS 06z now has something crossing over from the EPAC and intensifying moving N towards the Florida Keys.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- SFLcane
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
06z gfs has a sheared mess over SFL this might be the outcome when it’s all said and done. That’s the hope at least we will take a rainy few days
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
SFLcane wrote:06z gfs has a sheared mess over SFL this might be the outcome when it’s all said and done. That’s the hope at least we will take a rainy few days
Way too early. But nothing wrong with a little hope lol.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
SFLcane wrote:06z gfs has a sheared mess over SFL this might be the outcome when it’s all said and done. That’s the hope at least we will take a rainy few days
Yeah I can’t help but think we will either see a repeat performance of Hurricane Nate or short-lived TS Philippe from last October.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
6z GEFS Ensembles signaling low pressure beginning at 294 hours
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Could very easily end up in the eastern pacific... i understand the pattern is favorable but i'am just not a big fan of 200+hr models especially the bias the gfs has with the caribbean at this time of the year. We shall see
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Would this be the K storm? It's been woefully hot on the northern gulf coast. Heat index stays at about 106. Could use some rain in Biloxi just to cool down.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
FV3 GFS with a hurricane into the Southern Lesser Antilles:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Just for laughs really, the 6z GFS has a cyclone in the same spot as the 6z FV3-GFS at 384 hours off the SE US coast BUT from completely different origins LOL
GFS brings up a system from the SW Caribbean and the FV-3 brings in a African system from the E
GFS brings up a system from the SW Caribbean and the FV-3 brings in a African system from the E
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
That 06z FV3 is eerily reminiscent of Matthew. I think it's becoming very clear that the Caribbean is going to have to be closely monitored beginning midweek next week.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Climatologically it would make sense for at least 1-2 more Cape Verde storms to form before it all shuts down. So the FV3 seems reasonable.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Emmett_Brown wrote:Climatologically it would make sense for at least 1-2 more Cape Verde storms to form before it all shuts down. So the FV3 seems reasonable.
Euro also shows a weak MDR storm at the end of the run. The unreliable CMC shows two but it should not be taken seriously. MDR development in the last 10 days of September is not as rare as one might think, so it's certainly possible we squeeze out one more named storm from the MDR.
Last edited by CyclonicFury on Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
CyclonicFury wrote:Emmett_Brown wrote:Climatologically it would make sense for at least 1-2 more Cape Verde storms to form before it all shuts down. So the FV3 seems reasonable.
Euro also shows a weak MDR storm at the end of the run. The unreliable CMC shows two but it should not be taken seriously. MDR development in the last 10 days of September is not as rare as one night think, so it's certainly possible we squeeze out one more named storm from the MDR.
The FV3 shows the wave (that it later develops) moving off of Africa in about 72 hours at a very low latitude, looks below 10N. Plenty of warm water there too.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Emmett_Brown wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:Emmett_Brown wrote:Climatologically it would make sense for at least 1-2 more Cape Verde storms to form before it all shuts down. So the FV3 seems reasonable.
Euro also shows a weak MDR storm at the end of the run. The unreliable CMC shows two but it should not be taken seriously. MDR development in the last 10 days of September is not as rare as one night think, so it's certainly possible we squeeze out one more named storm from the MDR.
The FV3 shows the wave (that it later develops) moving off of Africa in about 72 hours at a very low latitude, looks below 10N. Plenty of warm water there too.
So, this is a much earlier wave than the one the Euro/EPS has been developing just off Africa near 9/25. This run ends on 10/4 with a H recurving NNE near 30N, 75W. Climowise, this FV3 scenario is quite possible.
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