ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MetsIslesNoles]

Going to be a lovely late part of the week in Tallahassee I see. Hermine, which never saw a hurricane force gust had power out 3 days minimum and 7 days for many. I imagine that even with the trimming programs in place and a better recovery plan than last time we'll see that kind of time frame again.

[cycloneye]

Good point from him.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1049287348310163456

[caneman]

The center keeps jogging NE on the second VDM.

Yep inside or east of the 85 parallel now. I dont think any models initialized that far east. Implications down range? I don't know.

[deltadog03]

Yes once it can wrap in the feeder band energy, if you will, that will allow this to get stronger quicker. Shear keeps lessening so we shall see

[gfsperpendicular]

Looks like the eye is starting to become visible on vis sat. It's a pretty large eye, RI taken into account...

[KWT]

Looking likely we are going to see a Cuba landfall given the size of the developing eye. Wouldn't have expected that 18hrs ago.

Remember, as I've kept saying, track will nearly always be too far west in these systems, seen it way too many times.

[caneman]

Looking likely we are going to see a Cuba landfall given the size of the developing eye. Wouldn't have expected that 18hrs ago.

Remember, as I've kept saying, track will nearly always be too far west in these systems, seen it way too many times.

Agree. I've been saying same. No models initialized this far east. Heads up Perry. My opinion only

[otowntiger]

Is it too early to tell possible impacts on Valdosta GA??

It will also be flying so no sharp drop in intensity.

This is the silver lining. Move in, move out.

Yeah, but aside from not having the longer rain and wind event it could be a much more intense, wind event for a shorter duration, just like Charley was for us in Orlando. We had less than an hour of very intense wind but the damage was pretty significant. I think people over estimate the 'good news' of storms from this stand point that are trucking. Yes prolonged tropical heavy rain is obviously a much more widespread and devastating effect in flood prone areas, which thankfully may not come to fruition here, but for inland areas this kind of wind can take them by surprise and act like a large tornado whipping thru. This of course if the intensity is as projected at landfall. I will have to see it to believe it at this point becuase historically storms drop significantly prior to landfall is this area.

[blp]

So it finally crossed 85W. I think only the Ukmet had it crossing 85W. If the models are right it should bend back to the NW in the next 24hrs.

A couple 70mm/hr cells east of the CoC.
Warm core looks a bit wide

http://i64.tinypic.com/wh1ird.png

http://i66.tinypic.com/fasi6u.png

[Buck]

It will also be flying so no sharp drop in intensity.

This is the silver lining. Move in, move out.

Yeah, but aside from not having the longer rain and wind event it could be a much more intense, wind event for a shorter duration, just like Charley was for us in Orlando. We had less than an hour of very intense wind but the damage was pretty significant. I think people over estimate the 'good news' of storms from this stand point that are trucking. Yes prolonged tropical heavy rain is obviously a much more widespread and devastating effect in flood prone areas, which thankfully may not come to fruition here, but for inland areas this kind of wind can take them by surprise and act like a large tornado whipping thru. This of course if the intensity is as projected at landfall. I will have to see it to believe it at this point becuase historically storms drop significantly prior to landfall is this area.

Yeah, there's a good side to the moving fast, but also a bad side. See Opal and Charley. Even Wilma's FL landfall.

[gfsperpendicular]

Also worth noting is the way that outflow has expanded well to the W in the face of shear. However, I don't think Michael has completely escaped the shear yet which is good

[blp]

The center keeps jogging NE on the second VDM.

Yep inside or east of the 85 parallel now. I dont think any models initialized that far east. Implications down range? I don't know.

Yeah no way this misses Cuba now. It supposed to take the NW job later tonight but I don't think it will happen and a more N movement will occur.

[GCANE]

Eye coming up on IR as well.
30nm diameter per last VDM.

[KWT]

It's got that SE quadrant blob, I seem to remember a few strong hurricanes presenting with a similar blob of convection..

[blp]

At least if we can track the eye we don't need recon for position fixes.

Eye coming up on IR as well.
30nm diameter per last VDM.

http://i68.tinypic.com/vy6pm8.gif

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If Michael hits Cuba then it’s only going to graze the tip unless he goes way off track. Right now though it’s further east than the UKMET had him.

[MGC]

Wow, Michael is putting on a show this morning. Almost looks like any eye on the visible loop too. Looks like its going to be a large hurricane.....30 mile wide eye. Gonna be a October Nightmare. Expect huge storm surge....MGC

[psyclone]

Look at that huge lightning filled convective mass on the east side. It is about to pound the isle of youth and western cuba. If the system maintains this configuration and doesn't gain it's anticipated longitude some rather heavy weather could make it onto or just graze the west coast. The latest QPF output keeps the heavy stuff just west of here but it's going to be a close shave. Perhaps Dennis 05 might be an analog for the west coast as the system transits the eastern gulf. we escaped significant impacts here but I strongly prefer a bigger margin of safety.

[GCANE]

Lotsa towers firing all around the northern eyewall now.
Recon just going thru them now.
A bumpy ride.

[caneman]

Look at that huge lightning filled convective mass on the east side. It is about to pound the isle of youth and western cuba. If the system maintains this configuration and doesn't gain it's anticipated longitude some rather heavy weather could make it onto or just graze the west coast. The latest QPF output keeps the heavy stuff just west of here but it's going to be a close shave. Perhaps Dennis 05 might be an analog for the west coast as the system transits the eastern gulf. we escaped significant impacts here but I strongly prefer a bigger margin of safety.

If it tracks just 50-100 miles further east, we're in some deep do do on the west coast