ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland29]

Microwave pass

[NativeFloridaGirl]

And my Panhandle family are already saying "hype" and such nonsense. I am trying to talk some sense into them

Here in SE Alabama people are calling it nonsense. That it's exaggerated and a non-issue.

[SouthFLTropics]

This is definitely not looking good for the Panhandle and Big Bend area. I would expect areas even further South to see significant coastal flooding. The Gulf Coast is very prone to storm surge due to the shallow waters offshore. I'm worried about my relatives vacation home in Crystal River. During Hermine they had almost 2 feet of water in the house. This looks to be just as bad or maybe worse. A large and powerful storm is going to stack tons of water up in the Big Bend area.

SFT

[meriland29]

And my Panhandle family are already saying "hype" and such nonsense. I am trying to talk some sense into them

Here in SE Alabama people are calling it nonsense. That it's exaggerated and a non-issue.

When the NHC ups the predicted MPH at landfall every single advisory by 5-10mph, you can be sure that it is definitely not something to take lightly..

[moja.ram]

Will this hit Washington DC, this weekend?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

artist,

Thanks for the link to the floater loops.

[meriland29]

Out of curiosity, will running over the western bit of Cuba disrupt its current RI?

[tolakram]

Will this hit Washington DC, this weekend?

Forecast to pass by Thursday night or Friday morning according to the NHC forecast.

[Aric Dunn]

Out of curiosity, will running over the western bit of Cuba disrupt its current RI?

nope it is just flat marsh/swamp.

[moja.ram]

Will this hit Washington DC, this weekend?

Forecast to pass by Thursday night or Friday morning according to the NHC forecast.

Horrible, i fly into DC Thursday night 11pm. If of course the flight doesnt get cancelled.

[ScottNAtlanta]

If anyone needs a reference for how bad this will be in the Panhandle...3 words

Stronger Than Opal

That ought to put a fire under them

[wxman57]

One thing to consider is that Michael will not likely strike Florida while at peak intensity. It would be rare for a recurving hurricane not to weaken prior to landfall. I think Michael will peak in 24-36 hours, followed by some weakening prior to landfall. Perhaps 125-130 mph then down to 110-115 mph at landfall. Still a powerful hurricane, but a bit weaker.

[otowntiger]

How fast is he moving, he will be near shore in less than 3 days...is that enough time to really get to a M?

12 hrs (or less) is enough time to strengthen to 100 kts. Wilma went from a TS to a Cat 5 in under 24 hours. It's not moving fast now, but by the time it makes landfall it will be moving at 15+ mph and at closer to 20-25 mph across GA and the Carolinas.

wxman57: what are your thoughts on the ultimate intensity at landfall? I know a couple days ago you were saying this would be a sheared t.s. wtih max winds of 50 knots, but I'm sure conditiosn have caused that opinion to change somewhat. I'm still skeptical of the cat 3 prediction at landfall. I know storms in this area almost always begin to dramatically weaken prior to lanldfall. Is there anything different going on here?

edit: just read your post above. Just what i was asking regarding the weakening prior to landfall, lol!

[psyclone]

Looks like our system is beginning to gain a touch of longitude as has been forecast by the eggheads at the NHC.

[ScottNAtlanta]

One thing to consider is that Michael will not likely strike Florida while at peak intensity. It would be rare for a recurving hurricane not to weaken prior to landfall. I think Michael will peak in 24-36 hours, followed by some weakening prior to landfall. Perhaps 125-130 mph then down to 110-115 mph at landfall. Still a powerful hurricane, but a bit weaker.

Like I said...just like Opal

[EquusStorm]

Historical record shows almost certain weakening before landfall with these sort of storms but I doubt that helps much if any at all with the surge threat

[Frank P]

One thing to consider is that Michael will not likely strike Florida while at peak intensity. It would be rare for a recurving hurricane not to weaken prior to landfall. I think Michael will peak in 24-36 hours, followed by some weakening prior to landfall. Perhaps 125-130 mph then down to 110-115 mph at landfall. Still a powerful hurricane, but a bit weaker.

Like I said...just like Opal

Even if the winds go down, the surge will not.. going to be quite a massive surge at that as well... hope everyone who is in surge prone areas gets the heck out.. a storm like this is not the one to ride out.... good luck Fl... prayers for you guys from the MS coast...

[psyclone]

Historical record shows almost certain weakening before landfall with these sort of storms but I doubt that helps much if any at all with the surge threat

yeah it would be exceptional if the system comes in at peak intensity. that would be a tall order at any point in the season but especially at this latitude this late. Nevertheless this system may be downshifting from a high baseline and therefore still has the potential to be a rather high end event.

[floridasun78]

hurricane opal did weaking a bit before land fall was cat3 before land fall want cat 3 but did alot damage 47 billion likely going do landfall same area as opal did 1995

[ScottNAtlanta]

One thing to consider is that Michael will not likely strike Florida while at peak intensity. It would be rare for a recurving hurricane not to weaken prior to landfall. I think Michael will peak in 24-36 hours, followed by some weakening prior to landfall. Perhaps 125-130 mph then down to 110-115 mph at landfall. Still a powerful hurricane, but a bit weaker.

Like I said...just like Opal

Even if the winds go down, the surge will not.. going to be quite a massive surge at that as well... hope everyone who is in surge prone areas gets the heck out.. a storm like this is not the one to ride out.... good luck Fl... prayers for you guys from the MS coast...

A little history lesson for everyone on Opal
Opal was a Cat4 after rapidly intensifying overnight catching a lot of people by surprise. It weakened a little on approach due to an EWRC to 115mph. I worked at Bellsouth in Atlanta which had hurricane force winds. The damage was so extensive I could not drive to work (I walked 2 miles...I lived close).
Not that Atlanta will see the same situation, but this will have effects not just at the coast. 110-115 is splitting hairs. The NHC is predicting a 120mph landfall. Coastal GA/SC will probably see hurricane force winds if this is moving fast on landfall