Texas Fall 2018

[Haris]

Many rounds of heavy rain today across Austin!

1.93" today now at my place.

October 2018 is now up to 4.62" !

17.8" since Labor day!!

[funster]

Big Rainy in Dallas, Flash Flood Warning issued

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 715 PM CDT.. * AT 418 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO EXCESSIVE WATER RUNOFF AND CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. LOW-LYING AREAS ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO RAPIDLY RISING WATER. SOME LOW-WATER CROSSINGS MAY FLOOD AND BECOME IMPASSABLE. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... DALLAS, IRVING, GRAND PRAIRIE, CARROLLTON, RICHARDSON, COPPELL, DUNCANVILLE, FARMERS BRANCH, UNIVERSITY PARK, ADDISON, HIGHLAND PARK, COCKRELL HILL AND BUCKINGHAM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. &&

[Ntxw]

The base change regime looks real. Once the remnants of Sergio (Pacific) crosses us, the trough associated will swing through and bring the broad temperature regimes back down to what it should be for October if not a little cooler. The out of season warmth is going to come to an end.

[Brent]

The warmest high in Dallas on the EPS is 75 after tomorrow

Pretty similar on the GEFS

[JDawg512]

Today was a great day to be outdoors. Got some vine trimming done along with some other odds and ends in the back yard. Just lovely weather.

[weatherdude1108]

It was heavy around 2pm and again around 6pm here. Got 2.5 inches since yesterday. Two of those inches just today! Wet times around here!

Big flood waving moving down the Llano River making its way into Lake Travis. Biggest since 2007 and 2004 they said. People lost their lives. Sad.

https://floodstatus.lcra.org

[Haris]

Round 5

[Brent]

Nice widespread steady rain in DFW

Hoping for the same tomorrow the 3km NAM has a squall line around midnight

[Ntxw]

Dew points along and east of I-35 corridor from Texas to the border is 70+. That is quite anomalous for October, heck this seems to be a broken record for this year. All this warm air is holding a lot of water well late into the year. Once the QLCS makes its way through we'll likely see some good rainfall rates quickly. Luckily things are moving faster than the system last month. A lot of this activity on and off is aided by the very juicy, water filled air.

We'll have to watch and see what Sergio does near the end of the week. If it comes in with a faster front, then the axis of heavy rain then might shift south and east.

[Ntxw]

Also 40s for lows forecast for some end of weekend to early next week. . Next Monday may be spent in the 50s for many.

[Brent]

Also 40s for lows forecast for some end of weekend to early next week. . Next Monday may be spent in the 50s for many.

I'm headed to Chicago for a short trip Saturday and well I need to find my winter clothes...

Absolutely pouring here right now

[Haris]

Very heavy rain in W Austin.

Now up to 2.97" for today!

[Haris]

Summary...


Discussion...The radar imagery is showing a small cluster of very
slow-moving showers and thunderstorms across portions of
south-central TX, with an emphasis on Frio county. Cloud tops over
the last 45 minutes have tended to cool a bit and the convection
is focusing within a moderately unstable airmass with MUCAPE
values of 1500 to 2000 j/kg. Meanwhile, persistent low-level
southeast flow continues to maintain plenty of moisture in off the
Gulf of Mexico, and the PWATS across the region are near or
slightly above 2 inches.

The upper-level flow across south-central TX is rather diffluent
as a result of a deep layer trough over the Four Corners region
which is edging out into the southern High Plains. This is
providing at least some modest deep layer ascent over the region
that is helping to sustain the convective threat given otherwise
favorable thermodynamics.

The last couple runs of the HRRR have been showing some very heavy
rainfall potential, with the idea of seeing a rather small scale
area of very slow-moving convection. Given the deep layer moisture
profiles, it certainly appears quite plausible to see enhanced
rainfall totals as the rainfall rates will be very high with
hourly amounts of as much as 2 to 3 inches.

Expect storm totals to locally be as much as 4 to 6 inches given
the high rain rates and slow movement. This will likely result in
some flash flooding. Will continue to closely monitor through the
night.

[Ntxw]

FV3 (GFS replacement mid winter) shows many barely getting out of the 40s on Monday due to lingering rain and chill. Some snow in the panhandle Sun night.

[Brent]

Euro has 30s at DFW next Tuesday morning.

Winter is coming fast guys

[gpsnowman]

I can handle some 30s.
Nice wall of rain out west moving this way.

[Haris]

This thread is awful lot quiet considering some very significant weather is possible today...

*crickets* LOL

[gboudx]

40s? Time to get some firewood.

[Ntxw]

Forecast looks "chilly". Most of us may spend next week in the 60s for highs after Monday (50s that day). Sweater weather.

[Ntxw]

Once this rain shield passes, cooler air filters in. Regime change, real Fall is here!