ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1761 Postby KWT » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:26 pm

Hurrilurker wrote:I don't recall ever seeing so much indifference to a potentially-Cat-4 storm this close to the US coast. Obviously if you're in the target area it's different, but normally it would be 24/7 freak-out coverage at this point (and days before) and I've seen very little of that. Maybe Flo fatigue? I dunno, it's weird, everything seems relatively calm on a national level and I hope that doesn't mean preparations are gotten to too late for residents and disaster response.


I will think it's kind of sneaking up on people. Once it goes offically cat 3 with maybe cat 4 forecast things will start to ramp up.

The structure looked crud about 9hrs ago but it's really improved markedly...worrying it strengthened almost throughout that time...
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1762 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:27 pm

Last edited by BobHarlem on Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1763 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:28 pm

meriland29 wrote:
tolakram wrote:
meriland29 wrote:I thought Michael was disorganizing an hour ago (?)


Why? Recon has been almost constant and pressure has been steadily dropping?



Cause the eye is filling in...


Intense convection has blown up and temporarily covered the eye. It will clear out again.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1764 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:28 pm

meriland29 wrote:
tolakram wrote:
meriland29 wrote:I thought Michael was disorganizing an hour ago (?)


Why? Recon has been almost constant and pressure has been steadily dropping?



Cause the eye is filling in...

Not really 'filling in'. More just the tops of hot tower bursts obscuring a portion of the eye. This is normal with storms intensifying quickly.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1765 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:29 pm

meriland29 wrote:
tolakram wrote:
meriland29 wrote:I thought Michael was disorganizing an hour ago (?)


Why? Recon has been almost constant and pressure has been steadily dropping?



Cause the eye is filling in...


Look for yourself. This is the IR view. A new round of convection is firing, partially obscuring the eye. We may get a smaller eye or it will clear out again when this pulse finishes.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-13-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1766 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:31 pm

The strongest winds in the NW quadrant so far.

202530 2614N 08633W 6964 02906 9749 +309 +309 077077 082 077 030 00
202600 2613N 08632W 6962 02888 9708 +235 +233 078076 083 080 036 00
202630 2611N 08632W 6966 02856 9696 +117 +010 069068 083 078 040 03
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1767 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:31 pm

There it goes to the eye.969 mbs at this point.

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1768 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:32 pm

Central pressure likely sub-960mb this pass
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1769 Postby KWT » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:33 pm

NDG wrote:The strongest winds in the NW quadrant so far.

202530 2614N 08633W 6964 02906 9749 +309 +309 077077 082 077 030 00
202600 2613N 08632W 6962 02888 9708 +235 +233 078076 083 080 036 00
202630 2611N 08632W 6966 02856 9696 +117 +010 069068 083 078 040 03


Still very high winds aloft, likely sub 960 based on that.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1770 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:34 pm



Incredible that tides are so high in SW when winds have actually being blowing parallel to the coast if not offshore.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1771 Postby MacTavish » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:34 pm

Looks like its still moving just west of N
Last edited by MacTavish on Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1772 Postby bella_may » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:34 pm

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1773 Postby MGC » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:36 pm

Looking at the IR loop...would not be surprised if recon finds the eye wall closed or very close....MGC
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1774 Postby meriland29 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:37 pm

Ok, thank you for the clarification. I was away for a half hour and it was rampant on here how it looked a little off due to filling in. I can see now that it is a illusion.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1775 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:39 pm

Extrapolated pressure from center pass: 957.7 mb
Given the recent low bias, the actual pressure is likely around 960 mb.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1776 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:39 pm

Looks like pressure of 960 or a couple of mb lower.

202930 2603N 08626W 6967 02784 9577 +160 +001 077006 014 022 000 00
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1777 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:39 pm

A few friends and I are already collecting relief and recovery supplies to bring north from Tampa Bay this weekend to help those affected by Michael. We are planning on heading into the Big Bend area with a caravan of trucks filled with supplies. I also plan on bringing a chain or two to help clear the road as we go if we encounter any knocked over trees we can address.
Does anyone work with local churches serving surge prone areas up around the bend? With a huge surge expected, and yet the eye not going over directly, we suspect the Bend will be underserved in many of the smaller towns and we want to help where we can make a real impact!
Please message me if you would like us to meet up with you and your group. Heading up early Saturday morning. More members of the caravan welcome!
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1778 Postby sponger » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:39 pm

MGC wrote:Looking at the IR loop...would not be surprised if recon finds the eye wall closed or very close....MGC


Certainly appears so or well on its way. Not good.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1779 Postby Raebie » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:40 pm

meriland29 wrote:Ok, thank you for the clarification. I was away for a half hour and it was rampant on here how it looked a little off due to filling in. I can see now that it is a illusion.


It was one poster and he was immediately corrected. Listen to the experts.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1780 Postby Condor » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:40 pm

Anybody have any links for chasers or webcams that will be in the path of the storm ?
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