ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- meriland29
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Imma gonna be watching the live feeds starting when i get hone tonight. In many spots, it already looks like it is only an hour offshore based on the flooding and winds... but is really almost a day away.
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- Condor
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_14L/web/basicGifDisplay.html
Microwave looks to have a well developed eye that is just being hidden by the convection when looking at satellite.. anyone else see the same?
Microwave looks to have a well developed eye that is just being hidden by the convection when looking at satellite.. anyone else see the same?
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Looking at the satellite it looks like is getting ready to start making that anticipated N to NNE heading fairly soon.
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Condor wrote:http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_14L/web/basicGifDisplay.html
Microwave looks to have a well developed eye that is just being hidden by the convection when looking at satellite.. anyone else see the same?
Based on that the eye is as good as it has been so far.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
NDG wrote:Looking at the satellite it looks like is getting ready to start making that anticipated N to NNE heading fairly soon.
Yup its about to cross 86W again soon to the east. Its been inching back that way. It will be interesting how sharp the turn is.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Have you guys ever seen an Atlantic storm at this latitude firing off such consistent -80-90*C cloud tops?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
A few run cycles ago, the NAM was throwing out numbers like 898 mb !!! Thank heaven, NAM has trended MUCH WEAKER and now only dropping down to a flacid 935 mb
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Andy D
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
chaser1 wrote:A few run cycles ago, the NAM was throwing out numbers like 898 mb !!! Thank heaven, NAM has trended MUCH WEAKER and now only dropping down to a flacid 935 mb
The way this is intensifying right now... the 935mb may not be strong enough.
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- Extratropical94
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
124 kt sfc wind in NE eyewall dropsonde. I really hope that this is a measurement error.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Category 5 may be possible
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 938.7mb/115.0kt
According to Dvorak it's already 4
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 938.7mb/115.0kt
According to Dvorak it's already 4
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Hurricane Andrew wrote:Have you guys ever seen an Atlantic storm at this latitude firing off such consistent -80-90*C cloud tops?
Not that I can think of. But if there have been IR imagery available back in 1969 I would imagine Camille to have some ridiculous satellite presentation in the Gulf.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
txwatcher91 wrote:chaser1 wrote:A few run cycles ago, the NAM was throwing out numbers like 898 mb !!! Thank heaven, NAM has trended MUCH WEAKER and now only dropping down to a flacid 935 mb
The way this is intensifying right now... the 935mb may not be strong enough.
Im inclined to agree. Its at 951 right now and hasn't even cleared its eye out yet. Once it does, I could see the pressure dropping more than just another 16mb...
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
chaser1 wrote:A few run cycles ago, the NAM was throwing out numbers like 898 mb !!! Thank heaven, NAM has trended MUCH WEAKER and now only dropping down to a flacid 935 mb
Go the opposite of the NAM and you will be ok.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
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- gfsperpendicular
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
reds37win wrote:The last few visible satellite frames kinda look like someone lost control of a fire hose. No good ever comes of that.
This is actually a great analogy
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Extratropical94 wrote:124 kt sfc wind in NE eyewall dropsonde. I really hope that this is a measurement error.
No way that's legit.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
PavelGaborik10 wrote:Extratropical94 wrote:124 kt sfc wind in NE eyewall dropsonde. I really hope that this is a measurement error.
No way that's legit.
Probably a gust.....hopefully.
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