ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

000
URNT12 KNHC 092256
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 09/22:10:50Z
B. 26.34 deg N 086.46 deg W
C. 700 mb 2705 m
D. 955 mb
E. 170 deg 15 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C22
H. 105 kt
I. 057 deg 13 nm 22:07:00Z
J. 138 deg 111 kt
K. 056 deg 16 nm 22:06:00Z
L. 85 kt
M. 231 deg 12 nm 22:14:30Z
N. 308 deg 99 kt
O. 231 deg 12 nm 22:14:30Z
P. 9 C / 3041 m
Q. 17 C / 3047 m
R. NA / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF301 1114A MICHAEL OB 11
MAX FL WIND 111 KT 056 / 16 NM 22:06:00Z
;

[chaser1]

Looking at the satellite it looks like is getting ready to start making that anticipated N to NNE heading fairly soon.

Yup its about to cross 86W again soon to the east. Its been inching back that way. It will be interesting how sharp the turn is.

Last hour or so sure has teased a couple east of north wobbles. Question is, when are wobbles no longer wobbles? Here's food for thought.... official NHC forecast position for 0600Z later tonight (well, okay technically early tomm. a.m.) is 27.6 and 86.6. Tomm. afternoon at 1800Z it is 29.7 and 85.9. All I know is that i'm keeping one eye on whether Michael crosses that 86 W line before midnight. That's aside from any chance he may be south of it's early a.m. forecast point as well. Both however certainly wouldn't bode well for those east of Apalach. given the even greater extreme storm surge that could pile up further east.

[hurricaneCW]

Big question will be whether or not he maintains the Cat 3-4 intensity up till landfall. I think based on the model data, there's a good chance he will.

Landfall is less than a day away now.

[Highteeld]

Have you guys ever seen an Atlantic storm at this latitude firing off such consistent -80-90*C cloud tops?

I sure haven't lol.

[xironman]

124 kt sfc wind in NE eyewall dropsonde. I really hope that this is a measurement error.

No way that's legit.

Those are instantaneous winds, so no problem

[KWT]

Looks like the system is about to go up another level, very derp convection in the eyewall and warm spot developing through the derp conv ction in classic major hurricane style.

Given how far north it idls, that really is amazing convection, more like WPAC or derp Caribbean ...

[ColdMiser123]

955 with a 16 KT surface wind gives an actual pressure closer to 953-954.

[SunnyThoughts]

124 kt sfc wind in NE eyewall dropsonde. I really hope that this is a measurement error.

No way that's legit.

Those are instantaneous winds, so no problem

Yeah I see others discussing this on other message boards and saying gust. But geeze

[chaser1]

A few run cycles ago, the NAM was throwing out numbers like 898 mb !!! Thank heaven, NAM has trended MUCH WEAKER and now only dropping down to a flacid 935 mb

Go the opposite of the NAM and you will be ok.

Whew, that's a relief !! I'm sure pressures in 'ol Mikey are gonna jump 10 mb or more. Yep, that eye should be filling any moment now

[ronyan]

Thought 22:10z was 4:10 central. If so that VDM is almost 2 hours old.

[eastcoastFL]

Looking at the satellite it looks like is getting ready to start making that anticipated N to NNE heading fairly soon.

Yup its about to cross 86W again soon to the east. Its been inching back that way. It will be interesting how sharp the turn is.

Last hour or so sure has teased a couple east of north wobbles. Question is, when are wobbles no longer wobbles? Here's food for thought.... official NHC forecast position for 0600Z later tonight (well, okay technically early tomm. a.m.) is 27.6 and 86.6. Tomm. afternoon at 1800Z it is 29.7 and 85.9. All I know is that i'm keeping one eye on whether Michael crosses that 86 W line before midnight. That's aside from any chance he may be south of it's early a.m. forecast point as well. Both however certainly wouldn't bode well for those east of Apalach. given the even greater extreme storm surge that could pile up further east.

Thats exactly the same observations Im making. I feel like its going to head a bit further east. We will see if the nhc is still calling it due N.

[wxmann_91]

Thought 22:10z was 4:10 central. If so that VDM is almost 2 hours old.

It's 5:10 central. About an hour old.

[PavelGaborik10]

124 kt sfc wind in NE eyewall dropsonde. I really hope that this is a measurement error.

No way that's legit.

Those are instantaneous winds, so no problem

Definitely makes sense now.

[chaser1]

Yup its about to cross 86W again soon to the east. Its been inching back that way. It will be interesting how sharp the turn is.

Last hour or so sure has teased a couple east of north wobbles. Question is, when are wobbles no longer wobbles? Here's food for thought.... official NHC forecast position for 0600Z later tonight (well, okay technically early tomm. a.m.) is 27.6 and 86.6. Tomm. afternoon at 1800Z it is 29.7 and 85.9. All I know is that i'm keeping one eye on whether Michael crosses that 86 W line before midnight. That's aside from any chance he may be south of it's early a.m. forecast point as well. Both however certainly wouldn't bode well for those east of Apalach. given the even greater extreme storm surge that could pile up further east.

Thats exactly the same observations Im making. I feel like its going to head a bit further east. We will see if the nhc is still calling it due N.

And there you have it. Eye wobbles right, eye wobbles left lol. Still looks to be maintaining an overall due north motion.... for the moment

[MacTavish]

Whats up with that flight path the NOAA plane took?..

[meriland29]

Did the flight leave at 111kt?

[SunnyThoughts]

Whats up with that flight path the NOAA plane took?..

Going back in for another pass?

[MidnightRain]

Wonder if the convection is "pulling" the center so to speak. Took a east jog and now almost looped back to the NW in the last few frames on IR.

[northjaxpro]

Looking at the satellite it looks like is getting ready to start making that anticipated N to NNE heading fairly soon.

That could be NDG. I do anticipate that turn tonight.

[MacTavish]

Whats up with that flight path the NOAA plane took?..

Going back in for another pass?

looks like they did a little loop in the eyewall and didnt go for a fix on the center. I dont know anything about how their flight plans work though.