ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/TwisterChasers/status/1050131530394157057

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/LouisH_18/status/1050120464037793792

[Ken711]

More damage from Michael.

 https://twitter.com/wsvn/status/1050112141909463040

[ScottNAtlanta]

They might actually upgrade this to Cat 5 in post season analysis. Depending on the damage it causes

[Texas Snowman]

As noted above. Good news for Jeff, now let’s hope and pray that the massive search-and-rescue finds few if any casualties.

@TwisterChaser — @Jeff_Piotrowski is Ok! Thank God. #verizon cell service went down Jeff’s location icon disappeared. He just called from a persons #TMobile Catastrophic Damage like Hurricane Andrew at Springfield, Callaway,Mexico Beach. Massive search and rescue underway! #HurricaneMichael2018

[Cyclenall]

Good one! Some people make comments without looking at the evidence & reports available.
Nothing against cycloneall, but there was a lot proof that Michael was going to continue to intensify despite the "windshear maps" and dry air to its west:
1. Continuing Dropsondes sampling the atmosphere indicated that there was no windshear or very little around its circulation for the dry air to get induced into its core.
2. Global Models (excluding the crappy CMC) were persistent in continuing intensification until landfall.
3. Michael was intensifying even faster than what the global models were forecasting.
4. Strong MJO is currently in our side of the world.
5. Very warm SSTs on its track.
6. No cool dry continental surface air on its way to the north.
7. And most important, the NHC forecasters forecasted that it was going to continue to intensify through the night.

I was aware of the pros in favor of intensification to landfall but for dozens of others in the past there was too (Katrina). I also leaned towards climo this time. Didn't know the MJO was on the ATL side currently. I do recall though Hurricane Gustav in 2008 looked pretty bad for the Gulf coast but was forecast to not be too devastating because of increasing windshear and some other factors.

[Ken711]

They might actually upgrade this to Cat 5 in post season analysis. Depending on the damage it causes

Very possible.

[supercane4867]

Michael is about to enter GA as its first major hurricane for over a century

[Ken711]

Michael is about to enter GA as its first major hurricane for over a century

From inland!

[Texas Snowman]

@philklotzbach — #Michael had maximum sustained winds of 155 mph at landfall - only three continental US #hurricanes have had stronger winds at landfall: Labor Day (1935-185 mph), Camille (1969-175 mph), Andrew (1992-165 mph).

[johngaltfla]

Michael is about to enter GA as its first major hurricane for over a century

And NO ONE is ready. I was worried about this last night. The homes are not built for this and red Georgia clay saturated then hit with high winds is not a good formula for pine trees standing for long.

[dhweather]

Considering that it usually takes the wind some time to catch up with the pressure drops, imagine if Michael had another 3-4 hours over water.

[Kingarabian]

Oh Michael will find a way, there is already some "wind shear" in place somewhere ready to do what happens every time a hurricane is moving northwards towards the gulf coast. They have to be really tight hurricanes (small like Humberto) to peak as they're making LF around that zone. Think how many times a hurricane has peaked or met the NHC's LF intensity on the northern Gulf coast, very few and even less that are expected to be over major status. I don't believe it until its 2 hours away from LF, and despite what Michael is doing right now I'm firmly holding to that "rule of thumb". Michael will be lethal for water like all the rest of them so by no means does this indicate I think he will bust. Everyone should evacuate in Michael's path for sure and he will certainly live up to the hype water wise. I just never believe the LF windspeed intensity when predicted to be over 100 knots, like Florence I couldn't understand the CAT4/5 predictions on that one! I'm waiting for that ERC (Michael's structure may not allow for one before LF though IMO) to occur and postings of the usual cliches "dodged a bullet" and "could've been worse!". You can bet the farm on it.

So, what kind of farm did you lose?

https://i.imgur.com/9WhPOxa.png

Good one! Some people make comments without looking at the evidence & reports available.
Nothing against cycloneall, but there was a lot proof that Michael was going to continue to intensify despite the "windshear maps" and dry air to its west:
1. Continuing Dropsondes sampling the atmosphere indicated that there was no windshear or very little around its circulation for the dry air to get induced into its core.
2. Global Models (excluding the crappy CMC) were persistent in continuing intensification until landfall.
3. Michael was intensifying even faster than what the global models were forecasting.
4. Strong MJO is currently in our side of the world.
5. Very warm SSTs on its track.
6. No cool dry continental surface air on its way to the north.
7. And most important, the NHC forecasters forecasted that it was going to continue to intensify through the night.

Or simply, any disturbance in the GOM/WCARIBB stands a chance and should ALWAYS be taken seriously no matter what models or current environmental analysis say.

[caneman]

Good one! Some people make comments without looking at the evidence & reports available.
Nothing against cycloneall, but there was a lot proof that Michael was going to continue to intensify despite the "windshear maps" and dry air to its west:
1. Continuing Dropsondes sampling the atmosphere indicated that there was no windshear or very little around its circulation for the dry air to get induced into its core.
2. Global Models (excluding the crappy CMC) were persistent in continuing intensification until landfall.
3. Michael was intensifying even faster than what the global models were forecasting.
4. Strong MJO is currently in our side of the world.
5. Very warm SSTs on its track.
6. No cool dry continental surface air on its way to the north.
7. And most important, the NHC forecasters forecasted that it was going to continue to intensify through the night.

I was aware of the pros in favor of intensification to landfall but for dozens of others in the past there was too (Katrina). I also leaned towards climo this time. Didn't know the MJO was on the ATL side currently. I do recall though Hurricane Gustav in 2008 looked pretty bad for the Gulf coast but was forecast to not be too devastating because of increasing windshear and some other factors.

Nobody expected it to bomb the way it did. Regardless of what the models said, intensity forecast are still 50/50 at best. If I were a betting man, I would have bet on weakening based on history. Having said all of that, I most certainly would have bolted based on the info provided. Did you decide to stay?

[jaxfladude]

Watch out Albany, Georgia!!!! Last I saw it looked like Michael was going to hit them as a landfall...how unusual is it fie the eye to stay detectable so far inland?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

[DestinHurricane]

What a day it has been! We saw about 4-5 feet of surge in the bay. A few trees down and roads are covered with debris but it looks like my area survived with no structural damage, I dont know why they even issued evac orders for my county, I didn't leave and I'm glad I didn't. My prayers are with our neighbors to the east, looks like lots and lots of destruction. What a storm that was crazy to track, I remember when people were doubting it to even become a cat 1. Remember when we all laughed at the HWRF model?

[Visioen]

One thing I did come across was an ERC was apparently beginning but it didn't do anything in time this time.

I never saw any indication of double wind maxima or a concentric outer eyewall throughout Michael's development. The only inner structural weakness was the eyewall struggling to fully close in the SW quadrant for most of its life. I'm not sure where this discussion about a possible ERC is coming from.

That was my thinking also, but NHC mentioned it in one of their discussions. So that's where it's coming from.

[supercane4867]

The eye has crossed GA border on satellite

[supercane4867]

Some serious structural damage

 https://twitter.com/StormVisuals/status/1050118658717040640

[Siker]

What a day it has been! We saw about 4-5 feet of surge in the bay. A few trees down and roads are covered with debris but it looks like my area survived with no structural damage, I dont know why they even issued evac orders for my county, I didn't leave and I'm glad I didn't. My prayers are with our neighbors to the east, looks like lots and lots of destruction. What a storm that was crazy to track, I remember when people were doubting it to even become a cat 1. Remember when we all laughed at the HWRF model?

Because of forecast uncertainty. Unfortunately when things don’t pan out for an area people think “I’m glad I didn’t leave” or “Why did I leave” and are less likely to evacuate next time. Then there’s a storm that DOES verify or turns out even worse than expected (e.g. your neighbors) and people wish they had left if they’re not dead.