Florida Weather
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Re: Florida Weather
Enjoy this morning’s temperatures because that’s it on the cold fronts for S Fl for the time being. I saw that the NAO is supposed to tank so why isn’t the weather cooperating.
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Re: Florida Weather
boca wrote:Enjoy this morning’s temperatures because that’s it on the cold fronts for S Fl for the time being. I saw that the NAO is supposed to tank so why isn’t the weather cooperating.
I'm guessing it will but chances are that we'll have to wait until after Thanksgiving to see it. Models are every bit as inconsistent as they were during hurricane season LOL?! Well, at least there will be another fire in my fireplace this evening! Enjoying it while we've got it.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather
SFLcane wrote:Just like that the GFS drops low pressure in the gulf..it also looks like back to summertime as soon as this weekend with no real cold air in sight for Florida.
Seems there is some possible development but once the area is east of Florida on the Atlantic side. The Euro has picked up on this as well.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Florida Weather
This could be a case where models are lagging to notice the negative NAO/AO. Also, the PNA is really not forecasted to go positive (if at all) until week two. So the SE/Western Atlantic Ridge is probably likely to stick around for sometime longer until the PNA goes fully positive.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather
Looks like a huge temp gradient from Panhandle to SE Florida tonight with around low 30s in the panhandle and mid 60s for coastal SE Florida. Even a decent gradient from SW Florida to SE Florida with about a 10F difference and about a 15F+ difference between SE Florida and Central Florida. Looks like the brisk north winds across coastal SE Florida mix in some warmth from the Gulf Stream plus there are some clouds around to help moderate the temps.
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Re: Florida Weather
Scandinavian ridge is going to coalesce to become a legit west-based -NAO/Greenland block. Still probably 2-3 weeks away from seeing the effects in Florida, but I suspect in about a week or so, colder air might begin to show up in models making a move at the sunshine state, in moderated form.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Florida Weather
In the low 60’s in NE Palm Beach County right now, but I’m sure things will moderate some once the winds veer more Northeasterly overnight.
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- FlaWeatherDude
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Re: Florida Weather
In Orlando I expect mostly average highs/lows next week(upper 70's/upper 50's) since the Pacific won't play ball(with the -AO/NAO) until the following week and beyond. The pattern could very well get real convoluted down the road!
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- SFLcane
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Re: Florida Weather
Looks like back to the beaches across FL next week during thanksgiving but wait it actually never feels like the holidays in Florida.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Florida Weather
Oh, patience good Storm2k neighbor down south of me. I see decent potential of cold snaps headed for the Deep South and Florida as we turn the calendar to December.
Patience is always the best virtue as the script always tells us....
BTW. bottomed out at 36.7 degrees back on Friday morning. The coldest of the early season at my home locale thus far...
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Florida Weather
I can remember multiple years in recent memory of cool/cold Thanksgiving's here in S.FL. 2012, 2013, and 2014 all were I believe cooler than average at least here in S.FL on Thanksgiving Day.
Now this year probably will be about average for Turkey Day but there are hints of a pattern change starting at the earliest late next weekend, it may finally get colder in time for the holiday season.
The latest 00z NAEFS Temperature Probability Outlook for 11/26-12/3 shows the cooler probabilities spreading south towards FL, the CPC usually follows this in making their afternoon temperature outlooks.
Now this year probably will be about average for Turkey Day but there are hints of a pattern change starting at the earliest late next weekend, it may finally get colder in time for the holiday season.
The latest 00z NAEFS Temperature Probability Outlook for 11/26-12/3 shows the cooler probabilities spreading south towards FL, the CPC usually follows this in making their afternoon temperature outlooks.
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:54 am, edited 3 times in total.
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- SFLcane
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Re: Florida Weather
northjaxpro wrote::uarrow:
Oh, patience good Storm2k neighbor down south of me. I see decent potential of cold snaps headed for the Deep South and Florida as we turn the calendar to December.
Patience is always the best virtue as the script always tells us....
BTW. bottomed out at 36.7 degrees back on Friday morning. The coldest of the early season at my home locale thus far...
Hey northjaxpro, I will believe it when I see it. Models trend colder only to bring back summertime. It’s kinda hard to get into holiday spirit in SFL
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Florida Weather
SFLcane wrote:northjaxpro wrote::uarrow:
Oh, patience good Storm2k neighbor down south of me. I see decent potential of cold snaps headed for the Deep South and Florida as we turn the calendar to December.
Patience is always the best virtue as the script always tells us....
BTW. bottomed out at 36.7 degrees back on Friday morning. The coldest of the early season at my home locale thus far...
Hey northjaxpro, I will believe it when I see it. Models trend colder only to bring back summertime. It’s kinda hard to get into holiday spirit in SFL
Yeah I am with you about that. It is very tough to get in the holiday spirit with summer-like conditions.
But, I am hopeful with the pending -NAO. that cooler to colder weather is coming within the next couple of weeks
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Florida Weather
FWIW, the -NAO and +PNA period might be shorter than originally anticipated as of this mornings update.
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Re: Florida Weather
By the time we get a cool front not a cold front the NAO will be back to positive. The result will be weak fronts which drop our temps into the 60s at night and upper 70s during the day because as the front which is decaying by the time it reaches South Florida the wind is already out of the NE, not NW which would give us lower temps.I’m just frustrated over the dry and warm winters we get here and I want a change which apparently by the graph that the Storm Expert posted is not happening.
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Re: Florida Weather
I was looking why the models do not show much of cool down for FL over the next 7-14 days despite a -NAO, -AO & +PNA
The reason is the EPO going positive which will make the pattern to stay progressive across the US, good news is that it will bring much needed rains to the NW US and at least the northern half of CA!
BTW, you will never see me look at the CMC, that model is cold biased.
The reason is the EPO going positive which will make the pattern to stay progressive across the US, good news is that it will bring much needed rains to the NW US and at least the northern half of CA!
BTW, you will never see me look at the CMC, that model is cold biased.
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Re: Florida Weather
northjaxpro wrote::uarrow:
Oh, patience good Storm2k neighbor down south of me. I see decent potential of cold snaps headed for the Deep South and Florida as we turn the calendar to December.
Patience is always the best virtue as the script always tells us....
BTW. bottomed out at 36.7 degrees back on Friday morning. The coldest of the early season at my home locale thus far...
That's because you only live just a few miles from GA
You should go by GA's winter forecast not FL's, j/k
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Florida Weather
NDG wrote:northjaxpro wrote::uarrow:
Oh, patience good Storm2k neighbor down south of me. I see decent potential of cold snaps headed for the Deep South and Florida as we turn the calendar to December.
Patience is always the best virtue as the script always tells us....
BTW. bottomed out at 36.7 degrees back on Friday morning. The coldest of the early season at my home locale thus far...
That's because you only live just a few miles from GA
You should go by GA's winter forecast not FL's, j/k
Yeah lol.. You have a good point NDG. Ir took you to make me realize this reality in winter. I am ony 25 miles literally. from the. Florida- Georgia state line after all
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:17 am, edited 2 times in total.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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- gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather
I would prefer warm, balmy weather than the freezing temps I am seeing up north. Isn’t that is why we are in Florida?!?
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Florida Weather
Well, gatorcane, for most of you, that what you are saying is true. However, I like the novelty of having some cooler weather for a change in winter down here. We get the warm and muggies 10 months a year down our way. Plus, we need freezes to combat the mosquito population we deal with otherwise.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
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Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
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