Florida Weather

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Patrick99
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Re: Florida Weather

#13481 Postby Patrick99 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:13 pm

northjaxpro wrote:I posted a thread I created earlier from 2017, to reflect earler this year on the Silver Anniversary of the Great March 1993 Superstorm. Truly an awesome weather event of a lifetime..........................

Link
viewtopic.php?f=24&t=118655


For us in South Florida, it came less than a year on the heels of hurricane Andrew, too. Obviously, the winds were not at Andrew levels, but they were significant enough to bring up some less than comfortable memories.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13482 Postby Patrick99 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:17 pm

boca wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Guess the Euro was right yet again with the setup of the squall-line and where the heaviest rains occur. We’ll be lucky to pickup an inch of rain here, meanwhile folks in the north Florida who don’t need anymore rain will get waterlogged again.


We will be lucky to get 1/2 an inch with this system.Its very rare to get a squall line coming thru this part of Florida. We used to get squall lines back in the 70s and 80s but not any more.


Why is that....why does it seem these systems always want to cut in near the Big Bend and Panhandle, rather than cutting across the peninsula further south? Is it the influence of typical strong Caribbean/SW Atlantic ridging that doesn't let these systems ride just a little further south?
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Re: Florida Weather

#13483 Postby psyclone » Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:34 pm

already raining here...well ahead of schedule.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13484 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:07 pm

For those downplaying the severe threat for S.Fla check out the latest outlook from the SPC, East Central and parts of SE Fla are now in a enhanced risk for severe weather.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
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Re: Florida Weather

#13485 Postby psyclone » Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:13 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:For those downplaying the severe threat for S.Fla check out the latest outlook from the SPC, East Central and parts of SE Fla are now in a enhanced risk for severe weather.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html


This is what I suspected we'd get. An upgrade to ENH for straight line wind threat. Looks like Volusia county down to Broward.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13486 Postby chaser1 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:13 pm

psyclone wrote:already raining here...well ahead of schedule.


Hadn't even looked at radar yet until you mentioned that. Looks like a pretty deep swath that you're getting. Is it coming down fairly moderate or strong??

Cells are obviously moving N.E. but I cant tell if the overall broad area to your west and WSW is spreading eastward or also in an overall N.E. motion? I'm guessing that it's more or less showing where the leading edge of the advancing warm front is possibly draping. If that's the case, then it should slowly spread generally northward. I wouldn't have thought that we (closer to the E. Coast) would see much advance precip. Maybe i'm wrong there?
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Re: Florida Weather

#13487 Postby psyclone » Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:17 pm

chaser1 wrote:
psyclone wrote:already raining here...well ahead of schedule.


Hadn't even looked at radar yet until you mentioned that. Looks like a pretty deep swath that you're getting. Is it coming down fairly moderate or strong??

Cells are obviously moving N.E. but I cant tell if the overall broad area to your west and WSW is spreading eastward or also in an overall N.E. motion? I'm guessing that it's more or less showing where the leading edge of the advancing warm front is possibly draping. If that's the case, then it should slowly spread generally northward. I wouldn't have thought that we (closer to the E. Coast) would see much advance precip. Maybe i'm wrong there?


It's light to moderate but noteworthy since my NWS forecast had a 30% rain chance after 4pm. instead we got 100% by noon. We're going to really stack up the rain here and we don't need it
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Re: Florida Weather

#13488 Postby chaser1 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:23 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:For those downplaying the severe threat for S.Fla check out the latest outlook from the SPC, East Central and parts of SE Fla are now in a enhanced risk for severe weather.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html


Yep, this pretty much say's it all.....

"The slow eastward movement of the storms may
allow for heating to occur and some diurnal uptick in intensity especially over eastern FL
Damaging winds appears most likely given
the strong wind fields and likelihood of boundary layer mixing
during the afternoon. Storms will likely be oriented along lines
with some areas of embedded rotation...."
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Re: Florida Weather

#13489 Postby HurricaneBelle » Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:37 pm

chaser1 wrote:
psyclone wrote:already raining here...well ahead of schedule.


Hadn't even looked at radar yet until you mentioned that. Looks like a pretty deep swath that you're getting. Is it coming down fairly moderate or strong??

Cells are obviously moving N.E. but I cant tell if the overall broad area to your west and WSW is spreading eastward or also in an overall N.E. motion? I'm guessing that it's more or less showing where the leading edge of the advancing warm front is possibly draping. If that's the case, then it should slowly spread generally northward. I wouldn't have thought that we (closer to the E. Coast) would see much advance precip. Maybe i'm wrong there?


Yeah, it's the warm front - dew point shot up from 52 to 60 in an hour at TPA - and the rain area is spreading northward.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13490 Postby chaser1 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:39 pm

So weird......? I don't quite understand our local WSO out of Melbourne. Tomorrow's public official Thursday/Thursday night forecast calls for "Showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Rain chance 100%. No mention of potential Storm threat or severe conditions.

Meanwhile, if one dig's to click on Small links toward the top of the page showing Hazardous Weather Outlook, THAT link will then display threat potential text ".....strengthening winds and favorable shear will bring the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening. Strong or damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and local flooding from torrential rainfall are likely to accompany these storms......"

Does Walt Disney's great grandson work for the NWS LOL? Just sayin'
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Re: Florida Weather

#13491 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:51 pm

Jax WFO has expanded the Flood Watch to include the entire Northeast Florida region. The forecast is now for 2- 4 inches of additional rainfall. They are focusing on the area potentially seeing severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon across the North Central peninsula, mainly areas well south of Interstate 10. The heaviest storms are expected from late morning into early afternoon tomorrow.

The warm front is forecast to lift north overnight and be across extreme North Florida by midday tomorrow. The strong, warm air southerly advection ahead of the deep trough will bring the threat of possible strong to severe storms. I was checking the helicity indices and analysis and it looks quite impressive for the threat of possible tornadic activity across the state tomorrow. This type of dynamic set-up definitely lends itself to lots of wind shear, therefore it would not take much for small-scaled twisters to get spawned on tomorrow.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13492 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:00 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
psyclone wrote:already raining here...well ahead of schedule.



Yeah, it's the warm front - dew point shot up from 52 to 60 in an hour at TPA - and the rain area is spreading northward.



It is. It is advancing just a tad quicker than expected. The isentropic lifting process is already well underway over the Southeast GOM and now across the West-Central peninsula.

Image


The warm front will spread a steady rain across North Florida later tonight into tomorrow morning. However, once that strong southerly advection kicks in, that very moist, unstable airmass ensuing will fire up those storms and they individual storm cells will move from southwest to northeast tomorrow. It is going to be quite an active day it appears.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:28 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13493 Postby SFLcane » Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:01 pm

Here we go folks! Stay alert tommorow the last time portions of SFL were in enhanced was 1/22/17 so it’s quite rare.

Image
Last edited by SFLcane on Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13494 Postby chaser1 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:01 pm

Boy, looking at present radar and then among the various models and i'd have to guess that Tampa (or some point within 50 miles) may just win the Rainfall award. Might just see 5" + of rain between now and Friday.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13495 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:26 pm

Interesting that the Tallahassee and Jacksonville WFOs are keeping forecast inland wind just below advisory threshold ( sustained wind 25-30 mph to wind gusts over 35 mph) Thursday afternoon and evening for their forecast zones. They have released their afternoon packages. For now, just keeping the small craft advisories across inland areas. Gale Watch for the coastal Gulf and Atlantic regions remain in effect.

EDIT: Tampa and Melbourne WFOs are also following suit as they are not issuing inland wind advisories for their zones as of this time, per their afternoon forecast packages.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13496 Postby gatorcane » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:53 pm

SFLcane wrote:Here we go folks! Stay alert tommorow the last time portions of SFL were in enhanced was 1/22/17 so it’s quite rare.

http://i68.tinypic.com/flwrjp.png


A little surprised to see the orange shading so far south given the GFS doesn’t show the best dynamics this far south.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13497 Postby SFLcane » Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:14 pm

That’s a rather healthy looking squall line :eek:

https://twitter.com/johnmoralesnbc6/status/1075490739285622786?s=21
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Re: Florida Weather

#13498 Postby SFLcane » Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:18 pm

Nice....Friday forecast for pompano beach


A 50 percent chance of showers, mainly before 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 73. Windy, with a west wind 30 to 34 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13499 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:21 pm

SFLcane wrote:Nice....Friday forecast for pompano beach


A 50 percent chance of showers, mainly before 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 73. Windy, with a west wind 30 to 34 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.



Based on this, I would expect NWS Miami WFO to issue a inland wind advisory for Thursday night into Friday for their forecast zone region.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13500 Postby chaser1 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:28 pm

Looks like Orlando to Melbourne, north to probably Jax now invited to the "Enchanced Risk" party.
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