Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Ntxw]

The 0z FV3 isn't really that far off either. It is basically what the 12z Euro was.

[utweather]

0z Euro has mixed precipitation all over DFW by Wednesday afternoon

Definitely a winter storm on the Euro lol there's gonna be accumulations this run

lmao 3-6" of snow metrowide on the Euro

http://i68.tinypic.com/10i8pax.png

Cool! I'll be coming up there new years eve with family to visit family for several days. Do what you gotta do to make a snowstorm. I dont want them out there shopping the whole time:-)

[Cpv17]

GFS is trending more towards the Euro. Good sign!

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like West Texas got some snow overnight. Some pretty videos outta El Paso.

[EnnisTx]

Morning discussion from NWS FW

A cold start to the New Year can be expected with Tuesday high
temperatures ranging from the mid 30s across the northwest to the
mid and upper 40s across the southeast behind the Monday night
front. Another southern-stream low will translate the Desert
Southwest and Northern Mexico Tuesday night before reaching
Northwest Texas on Wednesday. The airmass on Wednesday may be a
little colder than this weekend, but the atmosphere will be
substantially drier. POPs will remain fairly low ahead of and
during the passage of the upper level low, with the exception of
the far southeast where 50 POPs will remain.

The low will remain cut-off as it passes over North Texas, and
partial thicknesses may allow for a transition to a wintry
mix before the system moves off to the east. However, model
discrepancies still remain too significant to justify the addition
of winter weather in the grids at this time, but will need to
keep an eye on how models handle the evolution of the system over
the next few days, and take note if future guidance advertises
colder air or deeper moisture.

Dry weather will follow during the second half of next week,
followed by a developing ridge aloft and a warm-up to near normal
temperatures as we head into next weekend.

[Portastorm]

You late nighters caught first wind of it but yeah ... LOL ... that 0z Euro sure raises an eyebrow or two. It would even give us some icing here in Austin for a six-hour period with temperatures just below freezing Wednesday morning. Interesting.

[DFWLady]

If the Euro verifies, all us in DFW and we'll pretty much every where in Texas will be VERY happy!

[Ntxw]

The more the merrier.

[bubba hotep]

For the Wednesday system, one of the things we need to watch is the Northern Steam wave. It was much stronger on the 00z Euro and eventually overruns the system coming out of New Mexico. On the 12z today, it is barely there and stays a lot farther north allowing our system to come out of New Mexico with more amplitude.

00z Euro with strong Northern Stream wave.

https://i.ibb.co/m6HdFM9/us-model-en-087-0-modez-2018122800-108-5436-457.png

12z Euro with just a ripple in the Northern Stream

https://i.ibb.co/9vk5z4L/us-model-en-087-0-modez-2018122812-96-5436-457.png

Obviously, the 00z Euro was an even better run for N. Texas and the 3 run trend since yesterday has been moving in the right direction.



The Northern Stream vort is a bit stronger than 12z but the ULL over the Northern Hudson Bay is a bit stronger and the ridging over the NE US is adequate to produce strong confluence out over the NE. Spacing on the waves looks good as well. Below is for N. Texas December snows and would be rolled 24hrs forward from the 00z Euro image at the top of this new post, I need to add the early January events to this later today but I doubt it changes much. Pretty solid match at H5 to our analogs.

[bubba hotep]

The Northern Stream wave that I have been harping on is currently out over the N. Pacific. The system that it is associated with plays a big role in the N. American wave break that will also play a key role in the development of our potential system. We need it to do magic over the N. Pacific and then quietly slide out of the way once it is over Canada lol

[bubba hotep]

Anyone seeing this?

10 AM Update: We have received a few reports of some light snow pellets falling in areas north and west of the Metroplex. This should be very brief and there are no measurable accumulations expected. #txwx #texomawx #dfwwx #abilene

[Ntxw]

There is some radar reflection going on so not surprised some have seen flurries.

[Cpv17]

The 12z GFS is much slower allowing for more precipitation to build further west. Much more precip across the state and it hangs out over SETX for quite a while. San Antonio area could even get in on the action. Decent amount of freezing rain towards Austin on this run.

[bubba hotep]

Also, there was a big shift towards a winter wx system on the 00z Euro EPS with the Control Run and about 50% of the members showing some kind of event for N & NE Texas.

[Ntxw]

With decent cold air advection and heavy cloud cover, DFW may not make it to 40 today.

[bubba hotep]

While we wait on the 12z Euro to run, lets take a quick look at the minor differences in the 12z GFS, 06z FV3, and 00z Euro - all images 00z Wednesday.

12z GFS



06z FV3



00z Euro



Start in WCAN and work your way East paying attention to the orientation of the WCAN ridge, our system in the SW, PV lobe over the Northern Hudson Bay, the Northern Stream wave, and ridging over the SE into the NE. Minor differences but they make a world of difference in our potential weather next Wednesday. Hopefully, over the next 24 to 36 hrs things will start to lock in as the models process the wave break into WCAN.

[bubba hotep]

I wasn't planning on running today due to the cold but the chance to see some snow pellets might get moving lol

From FWD:

10:37 AM: Areas N of I-20 and W of a Bonham/Rockwall line may see light showers or snow pellets through mid afternoon. Temps are in the low to mid 30s, but the ground is a little warmer, so these pellets should melt quickly. No road impacts expected. #texomawx #dfwwx #Abilene

[bubba hotep]

Last post until the Euro, we were on pace for 100 pages in December but have fallen behind. We have 3 days to rally and a potential winter wx event to track, lets go! :snow:

[Portastorm]

The 12z GFS is much slower allowing for more precipitation to build further west. Much more precip across the state and it hangs out over SETX for quite a while. San Antonio area could even get in on the action. Decent amount of freezing rain towards Austin on this run.

Yeah, 12z GFS with an ugly icing event for Austin. Has a sharp gradient for precip as well. My takeaway is GFS trending colder for next week per the Euro.

[Ntxw]

The CMC and GFS group (compared to the Euro) are not as amped. See Bubba's posts above.

Really the Euro is kind of doing its thing right now mostly, will it win with its medium range prowess? 12z Ukmet looks more like the Euro than the prior bunch. Guess we'll find out in an hour if it was a fluke run or something possible.