Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Ralph's Weather]

Here is your first sign the Pacific is changing below with the SOI crash. Tahiti's pressures is lowering while Darwin's is rising. These mean tropical convection is moving out of the Maritimes/WPAC and into the Central Pacific. Continuous retrogression of the Aleutian low to follow the convection pullback from the IO which raises heights over western North America. SSW is a very slow process as the MSLP configuration changes from warmer Arctic to colder Continents. We like to think of SSW as instant game changers but top down events are not. It took heat fluxes from October to November to get the vortex perturbed then split didn't happen until this past week. The circulations will take a few weeks longer to propagate downward as it is not a bottom-up event.

https://images2.imgbox.com/ee/d6/sUXJflyd_o.png

There is a small set of years with warm ENSO and a flip from +Dec soi to -Jan since 1950. Those years are 2003-2004, 1993-1994, 1969-1970, 1968-1969, 1965-1966. These are not all analogs only the complete reversal of the SOI in a particular ENSO state.

It’s strange because I saw many winter forecasts that called for below average rain for the NW and it’s been anything but that. They’ve been getting slammed with deluge after deluge and some of the higher elevated areas around there and in far SW Canada have measured snow totals by the dozens.

We have had a lot of storms slamming the NW then diving south into the SW before slicing NE. As the NE Pacific pattern retrogrades then the NW should dry out and our storms will come more from Baja as a more El Nino like pattern sets up. The December pattern is not indicative of the overall winter pattern as it was really the loading month for the atmosphere, this load is just now beginning to show signs of being unleashed.

[Cpv17]

This is not a bad look at all...gives us some hope.

[Ntxw]

Here is your first sign the Pacific is changing below with the SOI crash. Tahiti's pressures is lowering while Darwin's is rising. These mean tropical convection is moving out of the Maritimes/WPAC and into the Central Pacific. Continuous retrogression of the Aleutian low to follow the convection pullback from the IO which raises heights over western North America. SSW is a very slow process as the MSLP configuration changes from warmer Arctic to colder Continents. We like to think of SSW as instant game changers but top down events are not. It took heat fluxes from October to November to get the vortex perturbed then split didn't happen until this past week. The circulations will take a few weeks longer to propagate downward as it is not a bottom-up event.

https://images2.imgbox.com/ee/d6/sUXJflyd_o.png

There is a small set of years with warm ENSO and a flip from +Dec soi to -Jan since 1950. Those years are 2003-2004, 1993-1994, 1969-1970, 1968-1969, 1965-1966. These are not all analogs only the complete reversal of the SOI in a particular ENSO state.

It’s strange because I saw many winter forecasts that called for below average rain for the NW and it’s been anything but that. They’ve been getting slammed with deluge after deluge and some of the higher elevated areas around there and in far SW Canada have measured snow totals by the dozens.

Those forecast relied heavily on -EPO (warm Pacific blob HP) which didn't truly occur. The El Nino had other plans with its usual GOA trough, hosing them. I'm not sure why most would forecast a dry Pacific NW in an El Nino as that is more prevalent during Ninas.

That being said, it will change with the retraction of the North Pacific Low back to the Aleutians.

[Ntxw]

This will happen. Simply because in the past 3 years DFW is owed snow. Everyone else around has gotten it so it's time to pay up.

[Cerlin]

This will happen. Simply because in the past 3 years DFW is owed snow. Everyone else around has gotten it so it's time to pay up.

https://images2.imgbox.com/62/5a/8PNyxZE1_o.jpg

I can get behind this...

[gboudx]

This will happen. Simply because in the past 3 years DFW is owed snow. Everyone else around has gotten it so it's time to pay up.

To paraphrase the late Egyptian Pharoah Ramses, “So let it be posted. So let it be done.”

[Cpv17]

This will happen. Simply because in the past 3 years DFW is owed snow. Everyone else around has gotten it so it's time to pay up.

https://images2.imgbox.com/62/5a/8PNyxZE1_o.jpg

We need some colder air already! That looks to be another borderline system as far as temps go.

[Brent]

This will happen. Simply because in the past 3 years DFW is owed snow. Everyone else around has gotten it so it's time to pay up.

https://images2.imgbox.com/62/5a/8PNyxZE1_o.jpg

Thats right lol

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, i have a question. What will a +EAMT event do for us? Just curious. Been hearing alot about that lately.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, i have a question. What will a +EAMT event do for us? Just curious. Been hearing alot about that lately.

This is a very complex question. Mountain torque events (as one that is happening now) alter the Polar jet stream and speed of Earth's rotation (AAM). A +EAMT since the Himalayas is the largest mountain chain on land reflects high latitude blocking. Descending Siberian High pressure slows the orbit ->increasing Aleutian low influence retrogression ->-NAM (AO/NAO). We'll see the fruits of labor in mid January from the event more likely. Of course it's happening likely at the hands of the SSW one influencing the other in a harmonic conundrum.

Of course this stuff is way out of my league . There are some tough papers to read on it.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493%282003%29131%3C2608%3AMTGFTA%3E2.0.CO%3B2

[Texas Snow]

This will happen. Simply because in the past 3 years DFW is owed snow. Everyone else around has gotten it so it's time to pay up.

https://images2.imgbox.com/62/5a/8PNyxZE1_o.jpg

I love how it hugs the Red River with rain to the North. “Oklahoma, you’ve had enough, NO SNOW FOR YOU!”

[wxman57]

If you believed the 18Z FV3 GFS, then you have to believe the 00Z and 6Z runs which show snow confined to the NORTHERN TX panhandle and northern OK.

[orangeblood]

Wow!! the Northern latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are cooling off quite dramatically by Week 2. The Expansion of the Stratosphere and subsequent compression of the Tropo caused by the SSW event is really cooling the surface above 45-50 N. Now we sit back and wait for the teleconnections to align to deliver the goods....AO is tanking, still waiting on EPO tank

[EnnisTx]

If you believed the 18Z FV3 GFS, then you have to believe the 00Z and 6Z runs which show snow confined to the NORTHERN TX panhandle and northern OK.

http://wxman57.com/images/nazi.jpg

It is with deep regreat that we announce the lifetime ban of wxman57 from the Texas Snow League. His continued unsportsman like conduct and taunting has led to this decision. We wish him well in his future heatmiser Endeavour's.......

[gboudx]

If you believed the 18Z FV3 GFS, then you have to believe the 00Z and 6Z runs which show snow confined to the NORTHERN TX panhandle and northern OK.

That’s fake news. Lots of people are saying it’s a sad, fake model run.

[EnnisTx]

If you believed the 18Z FV3 GFS, then you have to believe the 00Z and 6Z runs which show snow confined to the NORTHERN TX panhandle and northern OK.

That’s fake news. Lots of people are saying it’s a sad, fake model run.

I just watched a news conference where President Trump condemned wxman57 for being involved with the fake news network. He used the words axis of evil and vowed to build a wall around his house.

[missygirl810]

If you believed the 18Z FV3 GFS, then you have to believe the 00Z and 6Z runs which show snow confined to the NORTHERN TX panhandle and northern OK.

That’s fake news. Lots of people are saying it’s a sad, fake model run.

I just watched a news conference where President Trump condemned wxman57 for being involved with the fake news network. He used the words axis of evil and vowed to build a wall around his house.

But will the wall be made of concrete and will be Mexico be paying for it? Hehehe

[EnnisTx]

That’s fake news. Lots of people are saying it’s a sad, fake model run.

I just watched a news conference where President Trump condemned wxman57 for being involved with the fake news network. He used the words axis of evil and vowed to build a wall around his house.

But will the wall be made of concrete and will be Mexico be paying for it? Hehehe

I think we could persuade the good people of North Texas to pitch in and build the wall.

[orangeblood]

This Strat Warming Event just hit record territory for this date, very interesting year/analog it just dethroned...

The strat. vortex is currently weaker than all other years in the ERA interim record!!! The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -8.7 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -7.0 m/s 1985

[wxman57]

A wall? Good idea! Let's build one on the norther U.S. border to keep the cold air out.