Texas Winter 2018-2019

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Cerlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1182
Age: 23
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:06 am
Location: Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2541 Postby Cerlin » Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:09 pm

harp wrote:Well, still, there is absolutely NOTHING showing up on the GFS.

The GFS is weird—I don’t really trust the GFS much, especially for individual events.
3 likes   
Graduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma!
All opinions independent of employers and the university.

harp
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 517
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:01 am
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2542 Postby harp » Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:21 pm

Cerlin wrote:
harp wrote:Well, still, there is absolutely NOTHING showing up on the GFS.

The GFS is weird—I don’t really trust the GFS much, especially for individual events.

I understand. But, there isn't even a HINT of anything. If anything, it's trending warmer.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cerlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1182
Age: 23
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:06 am
Location: Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2543 Postby Cerlin » Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:26 pm

harp wrote:
Cerlin wrote:
harp wrote:Well, still, there is absolutely NOTHING showing up on the GFS.

The GFS is weird—I don’t really trust the GFS much, especially for individual events.

I understand. But, there isn't even a HINT of anything. If anything, it's trending warmer.

That’s pretty typical from the GFS. The FV3 has some nice promising looking cold shots and the CMC has multiple days with freezing weather for DFW. I don’t know anything about technical weather terms but things are looking promising.
2 likes   
Graduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma!
All opinions independent of employers and the university.

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1477
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: S of Weimar, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2544 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:28 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:True, but I love the cold as much as the snow. Without the week long cold spells here and there throughout the season it just doesn’t feel like winter. I also feel with the way our weather and temps have been over the past numerous winters, that outside of the panhandle and the further from the western and central part of the river, getting snow seems harder and harder. I’ve been rooting for y’all the last two chances there have been but let’s also see what we can do to get some true cold into Texas.


Houston had 3 separate snow events last year. Some of y’all get so frustrated that statements come out that simply aren’t based in fact.

This decade has been so much better than the 90s and before that the 50s and 30s.

The winters of 2008-2014/15 were great. DFW is going through a mini drought now. It happens.

It got down to 3 degrees in the Davy Crockett Nationl forest last year outside of Crockett and Alto. It can still get as cold as it always has and some winters it can be 80... that’s nothing new either. It’s happened at least once a decade since we started recording temps.

This “new normal” is something constructed in your heads. I’m not singling you out YC, just something I wanted to rant on.

I’m not really complaining, more making an observation regarding the last few winters. Overall this winter has been pretty decent so far. We’ve had a dusting and 2.5-3” of snow so far and we aren’t even to our snowiest period. My only wish is for some actual cold, cold cold. Not this mid 20s for lows bs, single digit lows that we’ve had for the last 3 winters. Like I said, I like extremes.
:thermo:



I’m with you my friend. With that said, we aren’t in a background state to get extreme cold. We very rarely see that in El Niño years.
4 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2544
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2545 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:34 pm

It's like the sign at the bar, "free beer tomorrow" problem is tomorrow never comes............

New name for website, Storm 2-3 Weeks Away
Last edited by HockeyTx82 on Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
5 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

harp
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 517
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:01 am
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2546 Postby harp » Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:35 pm

I'm in Louisiana, but many times, what Texas gets heads our way the next day.
2 likes   

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5026
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2547 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:39 pm

harp wrote:I'm in Louisiana, but many times, what Texas gets heads our way the next day.


Hey Harp, good to see you here! We just need the Pacific to cooperate with us. The +EPO is killing us this winter. The question is, when will it flip to negative?
3 likes   

harp
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 517
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:01 am
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2548 Postby harp » Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:44 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
harp wrote:I'm in Louisiana, but many times, what Texas gets heads our way the next day.


Hey Harp, good to see you here! We just need the Pacific to cooperate with us. The +EPO is killing us this winter. The question is, when will it flip to negative?


I'll try not to be as annoying on here as that one guy said I was on the Houston forum! :wink: :wink: Never been accused of that before, ever. :eek:
1 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23018
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2549 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:43 pm

I told you guys, if I can't build my wall to keep the cold air in Canada then I'm shutting winter down. ;-)

On a more serious note, the pattern really is one that could bring snow to much of Texas - IF some colder air can slip out of Canada. My cold-mongering coworker is still seeing a pattern change coming after mid-month. I don't see anything in the 500mb pattern in the GFS through Jan 21st that suggests a pattern change. If anything, it looks like a warm-up after mid-month. Low to mid 70s here in Houston today. Nice day (though a bit cool) for a bike ride.
2 likes   

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1704
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2550 Postby MississippiWx » Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:31 pm

wxman57 wrote:I told you guys, if I can't build my wall to keep the cold air in Canada then I'm shutting winter down. ;-)

On a more serious note, the pattern really is one that could bring snow to much of Texas - IF some colder air can slip out of Canada. My cold-mongering coworker is still seeing a pattern change coming after mid-month. I don't see anything in the 500mb pattern in the GFS through Jan 21st that suggests a pattern change. If anything, it looks like a warm-up after mid-month. Low to mid 70s here in Houston today. Nice day (though a bit cool) for a bike ride.


Unfortunately, I believe your cold mongering coworker is going to be incorrect. Seems like El Niño doesn’t want to allow Arctic plunges to occur, despite some favorable analogs. The pattern is a wet one overall, so maybe we can get lucky one time across the South with perfectly-timed cold air.
3 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5026
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2551 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jan 06, 2019 1:38 am

harp wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
harp wrote:I'm in Louisiana, but many times, what Texas gets heads our way the next day.


Hey Harp, good to see you here! We just need the Pacific to cooperate with us. The +EPO is killing us this winter. The question is, when will it flip to negative?


I'll try not to be as annoying on here as that one guy said I was on the Houston forum! :wink: :wink: Never been accused of that before, ever. :eek:


Yeah, I’m not really sure what that was about. I was about to comment on that, but then thought better of it lol
1 likes   

Lagreeneyes03
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 558
Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 10:53 am
Location: Luxurious Lake Grapevine

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2552 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Sun Jan 06, 2019 4:20 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:True, but I love the cold as much as the snow. Without the week long cold spells here and there throughout the season it just doesn’t feel like winter. I also feel with the way our weather and temps have been over the past numerous winters, that outside of the panhandle and the further from the western and central part of the river, getting snow seems harder and harder. I’ve been rooting for y’all the last two chances there have been but let’s also see what we can do to get some true cold into Texas.


Houston had 3 separate snow events last year. Some of y’all get so frustrated that statements come out that simply aren’t based in fact.

This decade has been so much better than the 90s and before that the 50s and 30s.

The winters of 2008-2014/15 were great. DFW is going through a mini drought now. It happens.

It got down to 3 degrees in the Davy Crockett Nationl forest last year outside of Crockett and Alto. It can still get as cold as it always has and some winters it can be 80... that’s nothing new either. It’s happened at least once a decade since we started recording temps.

This “new normal” is something constructed in your heads. I’m not singling you out YC, just something I wanted to rant on.

I’m not really complaining, more making an observation regarding the last few winters. Overall this winter has been pretty decent so far. We’ve had a dusting and 2.5-3” of snow so far and we aren’t even to our snowiest period. My only wish is for some actual cold, cold cold. Not this mid 20s for lows bs, single digit lows that we’ve had for the last 3 winters. Like I said, I like extremes.
:thermo:


But those extreme temps don't bring snow, they tend to be "too cold to snow" and that's just a waste. Mid 20's would be perfect.
0 likes   
I'm a Princess, not a forecaster.

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3193
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2553 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Jan 06, 2019 5:55 am

A couple of warm days ahead with highs near 70 then back to the 50's for highs for several days. Cloud cover could keep the lows stuck in the 40's so maybe we get some rain this next week.
Wife and I are talking about heading to Santa Fe for spring break. Might be my only chance to see some snow this year. :( Still have plenty of time for something to show up here though.
0 likes   

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2544
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2554 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sun Jan 06, 2019 8:22 am

gpsnowman wrote:A couple of warm days ahead with highs near 70 then back to the 50's for highs for several days. Cloud cover could keep the lows stuck in the 40's so maybe we get some rain this next week.
Wife and I are talking about heading to Santa Fe for spring break. Might be my only chance to see some snow this year. :( Still have plenty of time for something to show up here though.


Right there with you. The other night when the radar showed snow right on me yet nothing was falling was the worst.
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2555 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:04 am

Models are actually building some decently cold air in WCAN over the next few days but we only get a glancing blow as it looks like the majority of the deep cold will stay well NE of Texas. Then it is followed up by a pretty wet system for next weekend. As stated above, it looks pretty raw for DFW with a wet weekend with temps in the 40s.

If you want to chase miracles, the Euro does show snow in Eastern OK with accumulation as far south as the Red River. Maybe a few flakes can sneak in the NE burbs? One thing to watch, can we get some of that colder air from the cold front to sneak around the Ozarks and into N. Texas?
3 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

User avatar
GalvestonWXGeek
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 32
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 1:16 pm
Location: Galveston, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2556 Postby GalvestonWXGeek » Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:37 am

I'm up in Bethel Alaska for business purposes. Presently 3 degrees and heavy snowfall. Talk about a shock to your system! I've attempted to attach a couple of photos from my walk to the store yesterday.ImageImage

Sent from my SM-J337U using Tapatalk
10 likes   
I am not a professional meteorologist. Please do NOT consider any of my comments to be a "forecast".

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6059
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2557 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:37 am

This is what winter in Texas is all about!

 https://twitter.com/JohnRichTX/status/1081931912913059840


3 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2558 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:49 am

1900hurricane wrote:This is what winter in Texas is all about!

https://twitter.com/JohnRichTX/status/1081931912913059840


Just watching that makes my eyes water!
3 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

harp
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 517
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:01 am
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2559 Postby harp » Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:17 pm

The 12Z GFS now starts dumping cold air out of Canada southward towards the end of the run. The January 21st/22nd time frame.
1 likes   

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5026
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2560 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:18 pm

harp wrote:The 12Z GFS now starts dumping cold air out of Canada southward towards the end of the run. The January 21st/22nd time frame.


Yep.

Image
3 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 29 guests