Texas Winter 2018-2019

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5027
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2921 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:38 pm

Ntxw wrote:Of note, beware of the GFS and FV3 OP models. The past week it's been correcting to the EPS and GEFS (ensembles) of lowering the PNA and perhaps even some negative PNA from the very current values after the 23rd. Thus if you see runs where cold is thrown off the southeast coast, is likely to correct itself in time.


Hmmm..that’s pretty interesting..
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23021
Age: 68
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2922 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:52 pm

Cerlin wrote:
Ntxw wrote:EPS (Euro ensembles). I will say, collectively as a group our posters together may not always get right the individuality of events, but through experience we are pretty good at picking out major changes for upcoming periods when discussing wholesale change.

https://images2.imgbox.com/cf/5c/xOcAReoM_o.png

Heat Miser has been quiet the past several days. Usually on cue he would be giving us the pessimistic view by now. Good sign.

I appreciate his pessimism as it keeps us in check when we’re grasping for signs of winter life in desperate times...but these times ahead are far from desperate by the looks of it!


I prefer to think of it as realism. I do love it when it snows, I just hate cold weather. If it's not snowing then I'd rather the temperature stay above 80 degrees. I do see a pattern change that would bring colder air out of northern Canada by next weekend. I'd be careful believing models for specifics that far out, though. Time to increase the height of my southern Canada wall...
11 likes   

weatherdude1108
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4228
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2923 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:DFW airport's high today was 41F a little past midnight over night. Since then most of today hovered around 37-39 all day.

On Thursday and Friday the GFS runs had highs in the afternoon today 48-50F. What's a 10F temperature bust among friends?


I am in Grapevine today at Great Wolf Lodge for my daughtet's birthday. Great place! Cold here! Glad the water park is inside! :cheesy: We leave tomorrow back for Austin.
6 likes   
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38117
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2924 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:22 am

The GEFS mean is getting more and more impressive by the run it appears :cold:

Image
3 likes   
#neversummer

harp
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 517
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:01 am
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2925 Postby harp » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:23 am

Brent wrote:The GEFS mean is getting more and more impressive by the run it appears :cold:

http://i68.tinypic.com/2r2yg07.png

Has a dusting of snow all the way to the coast! :) :D
1 likes   

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5027
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2926 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:24 am

Brent wrote:The GEFS mean is getting more and more impressive by the run it appears :cold:

http://i68.tinypic.com/2r2yg07.png


Snow for the entire Gulf Coast :lol:
1 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38117
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2927 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:27 am

not much support for the weekend(though I wouldn't close the door entirely up here anyway for at least some flakes) but a huge storm starting around day 10 looks like where most of it comes from
Last edited by Brent on Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
#neversummer

harp
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 517
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:01 am
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2928 Postby harp » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:31 am

Brent wrote:The GEFS mean is getting more and more impressive by the run it appears :cold:

http://i68.tinypic.com/2r2yg07.png


Doesn't really show up in the operational model runs.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38117
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2929 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:36 am

harp wrote:
Brent wrote:The GEFS mean is getting more and more impressive by the run it appears :cold:

http://i68.tinypic.com/2r2yg07.png


Doesn't really show up in the operational model runs.


I wouldn't worry about the op runs much... watch the ensembles, as long as they look good plenty of reason to be optimistic
2 likes   
#neversummer

harp
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 517
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:01 am
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2930 Postby harp » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:39 am

Yeah, the last several runs, it comes and goes.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38117
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2931 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:43 am

The Euro is so close to having some snow in DFW Saturday as the precip ends, the 0z has one frame with maybe a few flakes

and yes I'm grasping at straws :lol:
3 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22796
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2932 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:48 am

1049mb HP on the Euro for the weekend. Prior runs had it weaker.

Lows in the teens, highs barely cracks 30 Sunday on the run. Lows in the mid teens Monday morning.
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22796
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2933 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:55 am

Brent wrote:The Euro is so close to having some snow in DFW Saturday as the precip ends, the 0z has one frame with maybe a few flakes

and yes I'm grasping at straws :lol:


I wouldn't give up on it yet. Still 120+ hours out and storm is still way out in the Aleutians in the far North Pacific. If the model sees more cold air, the baroclinic zone will eventually shift south with it, the more dense it is.
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38117
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2934 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:57 am

mid teens Monday Morning in the metro on the Euro :cold:
1 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2935 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:17 am

Euro EPS keeps the northern burbs of DFW below 50 from the 18th until the end of the run. Also, there is a a very cold cluster that gets DFW below 10F around the 26th.
2 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22796
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2936 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:33 am

0z EPS. Keep in mind this is the euro ensembles and as time goes out there is smoothing. Very cold period up ahead. I think a 1050hp+ system will eventually show up after the weekend blast. As impressive as last year's Jan 1st-15th chill was, source region may be colder than that.

Image
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23021
Age: 68
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2937 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:41 am

Definitely looking colder for next weekend, though I'm not seeing anything to indicate any significant precip in the cold air (i.e., snow). In fact, it may be so cold next Sunday that I won't be running the Houston marathon (again). I always run the January marathon if the high temperature tops 90. Oh well, maybe next year...
4 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2938 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:15 am

wxman57 wrote:Definitely looking colder for next weekend, though I'm not seeing anything to indicate any significant precip in the cold air (i.e., snow). In fact, it may be so cold next Sunday that I won't be running the Houston marathon (again). I always run the January marathon if the high temperature tops 90. Oh well, maybe next year...


Poor fella ... I *almost* feel sorry for you. :wink:

But we all must give you props as you told us about a month ago that our weather would likely turn much colder at some point in the latter half of January. The Grey Goose-swilling mets at the Portastorm Weather Center are working hard to get you some snow in Houston.
2 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

Brandon8181
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 424
Age: 42
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2011 4:52 pm
Location: Tyler, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2939 Postby Brandon8181 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:18 am

wxman57 wrote:Definitely looking colder for next weekend, though I'm not seeing anything to indicate any significant precip in the cold air (i.e., snow). In fact, it may be so cold next Sunday that I won't be running the Houston marathon (again). I always run the January marathon if the high temperature tops 90. Oh well, maybe next year...


That is okay! Let's get the cold air in place and the snow will come. It may not be over the next coming weeks, but if we can just have the cold air we will be set eventually! :cold: :lol: :froze: :flag:
0 likes   
I am not a meteorologist. Any post from me should be taken as hobby or fun educational information, but not an accurate source for weather information. Please, refer to your local weather station or National Weather Service for the most up to date information. :flag:

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2940 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:22 am

The 00z Euro EPS has the coldest D15 mean I have ever seen for NAM! Holy cow...
2 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 20 guests