
Texas Winter 2018-2019
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Well, it looks like we'll hit 150 pages before Jan 15. 300 pages, here we come!! 

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
bubba hotep wrote:Ntxw wrote:LaLaLand GFS tips the hat to McFarland
Interesting, true McFarland events are almost exclusively during -ENSO. With AAM rising, the atmospheric is taking on a more +ENSO look.
That's true, there are a few exceptions like 1964 sort of. We will see an easterly wind burst here soon over the IDL. Also the Nino weekly reading dipped to 0.4C which is off the Nino threshold. We're kind of playing the best of both worlds. I sure wish NOAA research sites would come back online.
The major SSW has definitely thrown a wrench into it.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Ntxw wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Ntxw wrote:LaLaLand GFS tips the hat to McFarland
Interesting, true McFarland events are almost exclusively during -ENSO. With AAM rising, the atmospheric is taking on a more +ENSO look.
That's true, there are a few exceptions like 1964 sort of. We will see an easterly wind burst here soon over the IDL. Also the Nino weekly reading dipped to 0.4C which is off the Nino threshold. We're kind of playing the best of both worlds. I sure wish NOAA research sites would come back online.
The major SSW has definitely thrown a wrench into it.
The cooling of ENSO is a bit interesting as the atmosphere appears to have never fully coupled with the Pacific. Yet we are now seeing another rise in AAM (not totally ENSO driven) with a quasi +ENSO atmospheric response looking to carry forward.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Rgv20 wrote:Ntxw wrote:LaLaLand GFS tips the hat to McFarland
Grey Goose shipping label created....Destination Austin![]()
![]()
http://i67.tinypic.com/200u2kl.png
That is an eye popping chart.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
For any Kansas City Chief fans traving to the game this Sunday, the current forecasted high is 18. I'm expecting it to be close to 9 for game time. 

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Brrr. Just hope we can keep the vestigates of an El Nino storm train while the cold is here. I think we can this time. Fingers crossed.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Plenty of cold. Not too much moisture at the right times for Louisiana and Texas. It looked more promising a day or two ago in the operational runs. Someone enlighten me.



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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
harp wrote:Plenty of cold. Not too much moisture at the right times for Louisiana and Texas. It looked more promising a day or two ago in the operational runs. Someone enlighten me.![]()
This has already been posted...but models are going to flip flop when it comes to features that far in advance as they try to resolve the very complex pattern unfolding. You'll go crazy if you live and die by each model run. lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
rwfromkansas wrote:Brrr. Just hope we can keep the vestigates of an El Nino storm train while the cold is here. I think we can this time. Fingers crossed.
STJ, Arctic Air in place, a building snowpack across the Plains and PV in process of establishing itself by the end of the month.
Yeah, I would say ingredients are all in place for potential Texas and Southern U.S. wintry precip oppotunities in the coming weeks.
It is funny how Mother Nature/Old Man Winter works. You all over there have had this snowless streak in DFW I believe from seeing the posts for more than 3 years there now right?
Now, there is a rather respectable prognosis for many out there seeing quite a bit of snow in the next 10 days potentially. The latest GFS and Canadian really look quite interesting, especially the Canadian, showing a big, classic Southern Plains Winter Storm by the 24th.
To end one extreme, you go into another. That's Weather 101......
Last edited by northjaxpro on Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Euro is really close Saturday again maybe a dusting along the Red River
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
northjaxpro wrote:rwfromkansas wrote:Brrr. Just hope we can keep the vestigates of an El Nino storm train while the cold is here. I think we can this time. Fingers crossed.
STJ, Arctic Air in place, Building snowpack across the Plains and PV in process of establishing itself by the end of the month.
Yeah, I would say ingredients are all in place for potential Texas and Southern U.S. wintry precip oppotunities in the coming weeks.
It is funny how Mother Nature/Old Man Winter works. You all over there have had this snowless streak in DFW I believe from seeing the posts for more than 3 years there now right?
Now, there is a rather respectable prognosis for many out there seeing quite a bit of snow in the next 10 days potentially. The latest GFS and Canadian really look quite interesting, edpecially the Canadian showing a big, classic Southern Plains Winter Storm by the 24th.
To end one extreme, you go into another. That's Weather 101......
Yep, I believe DFW is currently under the longest snowless streak in recorded history....1412 days and counting, last measurable snow (over 0.01 inch) was in March 2015
To say we're getting antsy around here is an understatement!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
harp wrote:Plenty of cold. Not too much moisture at the right times for Louisiana and Texas. It looked more promising a day or two ago in the operational runs. Someone enlighten me.![]()
As far as precipitation goes, try not to pay attention to where the placement of the precipitation is at on the global operationals more than 2 days out..even if it’s with in two days, sometimes it can change by up to 100 miles. Forecasting precipitation this far out is a complete shot in the dark. Also, pay more attention to the ensemble means. They lend more credence than the ops. It’s also wiser to just pay more attention to the upper air pattern on the models when talking about anything more than 3-4 days out. If you study and learn that then you could basically see for yourself where precipitation would be most likely to occur. And remember, the first thing we need for wintry weather is the cold (which we should have plenty of). We can worry about the precipitation later. That will work itself out eventually, as long as the cold stays around, which it should.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Glad I bought my two young boys a sled last week. This will be their first snow if we get any. 1 and 3.5 years old. Fun times and hopefully some memories ahead.
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Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
orangeblood wrote:northjaxpro wrote:rwfromkansas wrote:Brrr. Just hope we can keep the vestigates of an El Nino storm train while the cold is here. I think we can this time. Fingers crossed.
STJ, Arctic Air in place, Building snowpack across the Plains and PV in process of establishing itself by the end of the month.
Yeah, I would say ingredients are all in place for potential Texas and Southern U.S. wintry precip oppotunities in the coming weeks.
It is funny how Mother Nature/Old Man Winter works. You all over there have had this snowless streak in DFW I believe from seeing the posts for more than 3 years there now right?
Now, there is a rather respectable prognosis for many out there seeing quite a bit of snow in the next 10 days potentially. The latest GFS and Canadian really look quite interesting, edpecially the Canadian showing a big, classic Southern Plains Winter Storm by the 24th.
To end one extreme, you go into another. That's Weather 101......
Yep, I believe DFW is currently under the longest snowless streak in recorded history....1412 days and counting, last measurable snow (over 0.01 inch) was in March 2015
To say we're getting antsy around here is an understatement!!!
Not only snowless, but sleetless as well.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
While the mid week storm next week looks best I would not sleep on the potential for this Saturday. We could See a transition from heavy rain and storms to sleet and maybe end as snow. Key will be how much can the trough dig SW and as we all know this year's trend has been for storms to dig SW before kicking out over TX.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Another thing about Saturday will be the wind and associated wind chills. Temps in the 25 to 30 range with winds gusting to over 40 mph along with clouds and possible precip equals a brutally cold afternoon with wind chills dropping to near 10 at times possibly NW of DFW
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Op runs of the models aren’t very enthusiastic about another Artic blast coming through mid part of next week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Cpv17 wrote:Op runs of the models aren’t very enthusiastic about another Artic blast coming through mid part of next week.
??? Not sure what Ops you're looking at but the GFS, CMC and Euro are all showing -10 to -20 C below Normal middle of next week. That fits my definition of Arctic Blast
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
I have lost my bookmarks for ensembles and its been so long that I don't remember which site I got them from. Any suggestions for a good site would be appreciated.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
orangeblood wrote:Yep, I believe DFW is currently under the longest snowless streak in recorded history....1412 days and counting, last measurable snow (over 0.01 inch) was in March 2015
To say we're getting antsy around here is an understatement!!!
That didn't sound right to me. I checked DFW's reports and they reported 0.1" of snow on January 6th, 2017. That's only 738 days. Of course, Houston reported 0.7" of snow in December of 2017, and another 0.1" last January. You need to move down south to Houston where we get 10 times the snow of D-FW.

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