Texas Winter 2018-2019

[bubba hotep]

http://i63.tinypic.com/2lc3dwk.jpg
love the FV3 trend, plus i finally figured out how to upload photos! It's a good night!

That 18z run was pretty nice, one close call and 2 other winter wx events.

[dhweather]

If its behind a paywall then no but if its something he put on on Twitter or another public forum then yes.

Thanks, I changed it. Not taking any risks, the ECMWF maps are always a murky area.

yep.. those maps are not allowed.. I just read up on it. Otherwise

2.2 You may elect to purchase a Personal Forecaster subscription. An active Personal Forecaster subscription entitles one (1) user (“Personal Forecaster”) to use the Site and its contents and services for the Personal Forecaster’s personal, non-commercial use. A Personal Forecaster may re-publish Site Content on personal, non-commercial websites or social media channels, not to exceed five (5) maps per day, provided that the Personal Forecaster retains (i) identification of the creator of the Content, (ii) any resident copyright notices, (iii) a notice that refers to these Terms and Conditions, (iv) a URL or hyperlink to the page on which the Content is available from WeatherOK, and (v) the Site logo. A Personal Forecaster shall not crop the Content or remove the Site logo from the Content. A Personal Forecaster may download, view, print, and copy the Content and other downloadable items displayed on the Site for personal use only, provided that the Personal Forecaster maintains all copyright and other notices contained therein. Notwithstanding the terms of this Section, all use or sharing of ECMWF maps and content is strictly limited in accordance with Section 2.7.

Funny, I was reading this exact information today for the exact same reason.

Bottom line - you can't post an ECMWF chart UNLESS its one of the ones from Tropical Tidbits, which ECMWF basically considers public domain freebies.

If you want to "buy" the ECMWF, you still have to be a value added reseller, they won't sell to the general public.

The worst part? The cap (limit) per monthly charges they have is 160,000 euros, or roughly $182,000 USD.

[Cpv17]

Always a possibility with these situations.

It's possible. If the polar vortex comes to the Ohio river valley, while brutally cold there, we may not get below freezing here in SE Tx. I believe this was the case in Jan 2014.

I remember that miserable stretch. I'll have to look and see what kind.of blocking was in place but inam thinking it was +PNA which ruined it.

+PNA is what always kills our winters, it seems.

[rwfromkansas]

I would think weather.us or similar sites that have Euro charts for free would be fair game.

[bubba hotep]

Waiting on the Hi-Res models to do magic but until then we have this from FWD:

[dhweather]

+PNA is what always kills our winters, it seems.

I'm particularly resentful of the dry wedge, which ALWAYS seems to pass through North Texas.

[TheProfessor]

0z NAM says North Texas folks should keep an eye on this weekend's system. WPC has been discarding the NAM right now, but it does have somewhat of a support from the Ukie and another model I haven't heard of(Thunder model). We'll see.

[spencer817]

0z NAM says North Texas folks should keep an eye on this weekend's system. WPC has been discarding the NAM right now, but it does have somewhat of a support from the Ukie and another model I haven't heard of(Thunder model). We'll see.

Here comes hour 84 NAM to troll NTX again

[bubba hotep]

0z NAM says North Texas folks should keep an eye on this weekend's system. WPC has been discarding the NAM right now, but it does have somewhat of a support from the Ukie and another model I haven't heard of(Thunder model). We'll see.

Get that to roll negative and watch out!

[Cpv17]

0z NAM digs the trough more and is less progressive with this weekends system.

[Ralph's Weather]

0z NAM digs the trough more and is less progressive with this weekends system.

Its always the ones you write off that end up doing it. Temps will be cold so if the low can slow down and dig a bit who knows. I do like seeing a shortwave trailing the Arctic front. Maybe that will be enough to overcome the post frontal dry air. At least it is a different set up than what has typically failed us lately.

[OKMet83]

00Z Nam run is a very encouraging trend for N TX folks.. We shall see if this holds and what the other models do....

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Always a possibility with these situations.

It's possible. If the polar vortex comes to the Ohio river valley, while brutally cold there, we may not get below freezing here in SE Tx. I believe this was the case in Jan 2014.

I remember that miserable stretch. I'll have to look and see what kind.of blocking was in place but inam thinking it was +PNA which ruined it.

It started mid Jan 2014. Something about the dynamics under the PV. Typically the surface pressure is very high when its cold, its not very high under the PV. Why, i havent actually looked into it myself. Maybe some mets will help here, but its different. Not like a big HP coming down, more of the upper atmosphere coming down towards the surface.

[spencer817]

I certainly wouldn't give up on it, the last 4 runs of the 12z EURO certainly aren't a bad trend:



Interestingly enough, the first of those runs (with the similar 500 mb height pattern; 12z Jan.12th) had snow for NTX

[HockeyTx82]

I certainly wouldn't give up on it, the last 4 runs of the 12z EURO certainly aren't a bad trend:

http://i65.tinypic.com/2ewczk4.gif

Interestingly enough, the first of those runs (with the similar 500 mb height pattern; 12z Jan.12th) had snow for NTX

Ok, finally going to ask, what is this type of map showing? It's one of the few I don't quite understand.

[spencer817]

I certainly wouldn't give up on it, the last 4 runs of the 12z EURO certainly aren't a bad trend:

http://i65.tinypic.com/2ewczk4.gif

Interestingly enough, the first of those runs (with the similar 500 mb height pattern; 12z Jan.12th) had snow for NTX

Ok, finally going to ask, what is this type of map showing? It's one of the few I don't quite understand.

500 mb height anomalies, hard to explain what we want, some of the guys like Ntwx are better at wording

[spencer817]

@hockeytx82 the NAM is a good example of what we want at the 500 mb level



On another note, 0z GFS is better, but still not there...baby steps. Seems like we need it to slow down, as the NAM suggests.

[dhweather]

I certainly wouldn't give up on it, the last 4 runs of the 12z EURO certainly aren't a bad trend:

http://i65.tinypic.com/2ewczk4.gif

Interestingly enough, the first of those runs (with the similar 500 mb height pattern; 12z Jan.12th) had snow for NTX

Ok, finally going to ask, what is this type of map showing? It's one of the few I don't quite understand.

This is showing the thickness - the height difference between 1000 millibars and 500 millibars.

Here's a good write up from the NWS: https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/thickness

[Haris]

GFS better be wrong. Really losing the steam with the first front. I don't have as much knowledge regarding model biases as others so I'll trust the fact it always does this.

[Brent]

GFS better be wrong. Really losing the steam with the first front. I don't have as much knowledge regarding model biases as others so I'll trust the fact it always does this.

even the Euro has gone warmer this weekend but I feel like we've seen this song before from the globals at this range

The CMC lol