Texas Winter 2018-2019

[ThunderSleetDreams]

This is just me thinkin out loud... I think our new normal for severe cold outbreaks are weak Nina, -SOI years...

[bubba hotep]

As others have said, there is still a lot of winter left and I give us two months to go with the end point being mid-March. However, I did voice my concerns way back that, while the long range indicators all looked good, that we are still trying to step down from the Super Nino heat spike. Until we can discharge that OHC, it will be hard to get a sustained large scale pattern shift.

[spencer817]

As others have said, there is still a lot of winter left and I give us two months to go with the end point being mid-March. However, I did voice my concerns way back that, while the long range indicators all looked good, that we are still trying to step down from the Super Nino heat spike. Until we can discharge that OHC, it will be hard to get a sustained large scale pattern shift.

Have other years succeeding super Ninos been somewhat lackluster in terms of snowfall?

[bubba hotep]

Not much change in the Euro Weeklies, late January into February still looks good for Texas.

[orangeblood]

Coldest air relative to average on the euro weeklies is centered over the great lakes, well north and east of us. Think I'm in the process of closing the book on this winter. Time to bring on the severe weather, at least we can somewhat rely on that climotogically.

Man, they’re still 2-3 deg C below normal over a 46 day period and they’re still in catch up mode (some of the coldest I’ve seen for a Euro weekly 46 day mean)... Plus 45 of 51 members show accumulating snowfall. Give me that any winter 10 out of 10 times!!!

[gboudx]

I don't think it is fair for those to just say busted winter blah blah. Most of you don't post or come to this board to read that it is going to be a warm winter, every year. This thread would ceast to exist. Hard truth, but most winters are going to be warm these days. We look for the maybes.

No one is to blame, mother nature does what she does regardless of forecasts or models.

Sometimes people just need to vent.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

WINTER SHUTDOWN

[Brent]

just remember sometimes a bunch of winter cancel posts isn't a bad thing

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ntx is right though. Thats why its the weather. We enjoy the inconsistency. Sometimes it works in your favor, like Houston as of late, sometimes it doesnt. Often crying about rain on here too when it's not winter. Always something! I will say its a relief when the snow drought or rain drought is broken. Have to be patient though folks. The models are showing a favorable pattern for cold at least. Just hang tight.

[Haris]

I love all of you all. So smart. And there is absolutely no one to blame on here, at least, if we do not see any cold or snow. I can see everyone tries their best. We should appreciate the effort and the learning experience through all of this. We still don't have enough tech to perfectly forecast everything correct all the time. At the end, ma nature will do whatever she wants and no one can control except the lord.

I can understand the disappointment. I love snow to death. But as others have mentioned, it's a different time with a warmer climate at least temporarily (wont speak more on that ) than before and it's Texas after all... Snow is not something that's common here regardless if it is an El Nino or La nina year etc... We all do our best effort to find clues for a pattern change. At the very end, all we can do is pray and hope.

[snowballzzz]

0Z NAM giving us hope on the back end of the storm this sat..

[TheProfessor]

Lol the NAM just went "No Storm for you!" towards Ohio. No one gets above 4.5" the Name was dropping 10-12" of snow for northern Ohio on the 18z...

[HockeyTx82]

I think I know where all the snow went......

Sierra resorts can count snowfall totals in feet. Here's what they look like on Thursday. https://a.msn.com/r/2/BBSopZl?m=en-us&r ... InAppShare

Just curious, anyone ever look at models for that part of the country and see how well they perform?

[bubba hotep]

Here we go! Go NAM! Go!

[Brent]

I love all of you all. So smart. And there is absolutely no one to blame on here, at least, if we do not see any cold or snow. I can see everyone tries their best. We should appreciate the effort and the learning experience through all of this. We still don't have enough tech to perfectly forecast everything correct all the time. At the end, ma nature will do whatever she wants and no one can control except the lord.

I can understand the disappointment. I love snow to death. But as others have mentioned, it's a different time with a warmer climate at least temporarily (wont speak more on that ) than before and it's Texas after all... Snow is not something that's common here regardless if it is an El Nino or La nina year etc... We all do our best effort to find clues for a pattern change. At the very end, all we can do is pray and hope.

and that is exactly why snow is so magical and special when it does happen, if we were used to it it wouldn't be the same I bet.

Here we go! Go NAM! Go!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019011800/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_36.png

ha the winter cancel posts are working already?

[Cerlin]

in that case...WINTER CANCEL WINTER CANCEL!!!!!

[bubba hotep]

00z 3k NAM actually looks really good with the surface 34-32F and the entire column below freezing.

[TheProfessor]

3K NAM is actually way better for me and drops 5.6"of snow. I might need to take that and run lol.

[Captmorg70]

It’s seems like the 3K NAM is showing just a little stronger and little further south version of what EURO has for last 48hrs

[Cerlin]

let’s hope the NAM 3k isn’t Lucy...