Texas Winter 2018-2019

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3701 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:43 am

Cerlin wrote:
Brent wrote:62 degrees out, why am I just not feeling it lol

Not feeling like it’s 62 degrees out or not feeling like snow is gonna happen this time?


it definitely felt warm earlier, I guess its just weird this is trending towards something at the last second
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3702 Postby Captmorg70 » Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:44 am

TheProfessor wrote:Good luck to you north Texas folks. The Deform band on this storm could be very impressive. Someone was throwing thundersnow around up here if the band reaches its potential.


Thanks. You too up in Columbus! Tonight will be very fun to see how hrrr does
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3703 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:47 am

Cerlin wrote:
Brent wrote:62 degrees out, why am I just not feeling it lol

Not feeling like it’s 62 degrees out or not feeling like snow is gonna happen this time?


From 62 to snow in a few hours is hard to believe.

Unless you've lived in the southern plains long enough to see it happen :lol:. One of the few places from one extreme to another.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3704 Postby Captmorg70 » Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:49 am

Ntxw wrote:
Cerlin wrote:
Brent wrote:62 degrees out, why am I just not feeling it lol

Not feeling like it’s 62 degrees out or not feeling like snow is gonna happen this time?


From 62 to snow in a few hours is hard to believe.

Unless you've lived in the southern plains long enough to see it happen :lol:. One of the few places from one extreme to another.


Honestly I feel like I’ve seen more snow when it does change drastically like that compared to the 38 degree day that we’re hoping it drops a few more degrees
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3705 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:55 am

Captmorg70 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Not feeling like it’s 62 degrees out or not feeling like snow is gonna happen this time?


From 62 to snow in a few hours is hard to believe.

Unless you've lived in the southern plains long enough to see it happen :lol:. One of the few places from one extreme to another.


Honestly I feel like I’ve seen more snow when it does change drastically like that compared to the 38 degree day that we’re hoping it drops a few more degrees


Oh I know. Christmas Eve blizzard 2009 it was 75 degrees before it hit. Almost 80F before the 2013 ice storm. Not that we're getting anything like that but the swings are not unprecedented.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3706 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:58 am

Ntxw wrote:
Captmorg70 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
From 62 to snow in a few hours is hard to believe.

Unless you've lived in the southern plains long enough to see it happen :lol:. One of the few places from one extreme to another.


Honestly I feel like I’ve seen more snow when it does change drastically like that compared to the 38 degree day that we’re hoping it drops a few more degrees


Oh I know. Christmas Eve blizzard 2009 it was 75 degrees before it hit. Almost 80F before the 2013 ice storm. Not that we're getting anything like that but the swings are not unprecedented.


I tell people about the temps before the 2009 blizzard and it's always hard for them to believe lol.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3707 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:01 am

Ntxw wrote:
Cerlin wrote:
Brent wrote:62 degrees out, why am I just not feeling it lol

Not feeling like it’s 62 degrees out or not feeling like snow is gonna happen this time?


From 62 to snow in a few hours is hard to believe.

Unless you've lived in the southern plains long enough to see it happen :lol:. One of the few places from one extreme to another.


yeah I've only been here a few years still lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3708 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:05 am

It's interesting that the HRRR has another band after the initial one, line coming in from Oklahoma. If that is real, or any of this is real, then maybe it might snow for a few hours up until 9am-ish.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3709 Postby Captmorg70 » Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:09 am

Ntxw wrote:It's interesting that the HRRR has another band after the initial one, line coming in from Oklahoma. If that is real, or any of this is real, then maybe it might snow for a few hours up until 9am-ish.


I’m really curious if stuff will start strengthening like the HRRR is showing. It has stuff around Vernon to Lawton popping up and heading this way. Yea that second band is interesting. The 00z Euro kinda has it too, but it’s centered further east than what the Nam/hrrr has been showing
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3710 Postby Captmorg70 » Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:13 am

Captmorg70 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:It's interesting that the HRRR has another band after the initial one, line coming in from Oklahoma. If that is real, or any of this is real, then maybe it might snow for a few hours up until 9am-ish.


I’m really curious if stuff will start strengthening like the HRRR is showing. It has stuff around Vernon to Lawton popping up and heading this way. Yea that second band is interesting. The 00z Euro kinda has it too, but it’s centered further east than what the Nam/hrrr has been showing


Actually looking at radar now. Looks like something is forming around Lawton... I don’t want to get too hyped or buy into the HRRR too much, but if this storm finds a way to pop up thunderstorms and then turn it to snow I’d be pretty excited
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3711 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:16 am

Captmorg70 wrote:
Captmorg70 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:It's interesting that the HRRR has another band after the initial one, line coming in from Oklahoma. If that is real, or any of this is real, then maybe it might snow for a few hours up until 9am-ish.


I’m really curious if stuff will start strengthening like the HRRR is showing. It has stuff around Vernon to Lawton popping up and heading this way. Yea that second band is interesting. The 00z Euro kinda has it too, but it’s centered further east than what the Nam/hrrr has been showing


Actually looking at radar now. Looks like something is forming around Lawton... I don’t want to get too hyped or buy into the HRRR too much, but if this storm finds a way to pop up thunderstorms and then turn it to snow I’d be pretty excited


It's the birth of the deformation band that will rip snow up the Ohio River Valley into the interior northeast. We're at the very razor edge beginning of it. If the models underestimate it and it blows up more, maybe a surprise. Or it could do so northeast of us and we see little.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3712 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:23 am

0z Euro (1-hourly) shows basically similar to the HRRR.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3713 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:27 am

no wintry weather Wednesday on the Euro anywhere
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3714 Postby spencer817 » Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:32 am

Not sure if true, but there was some lightning up near WF associated with snow banding.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3715 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:40 am

spencer817 wrote:Not sure if true, but there was some lightning up near WF associated with snow banding.


I wouldn't be surprised. Some thunderstorms embedded in the band.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3716 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:50 am

arctic front next Saturday with some light snow on the Euro
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3717 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:52 am

Brent wrote:arctic front next Saturday with some light snow on the Euro


The models this evening have shifted the very cold air slightly to the east in the 6-10 day period. But as a settlement because we are on the fringes that increases the chance for passing snow showers.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3718 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:55 am

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:arctic front next Saturday with some light snow on the Euro


The models this evening have shifted the very cold air slightly to the east in the 6-10 day period. But as a settlement because we are on the fringes that increases the chance for passing snow showers.


yeah its not that cold really(although Dallas is in the 20s at mid afternoon Saturday) but I'd gladly trade the cold for snow :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3719 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:00 am

Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:arctic front next Saturday with some light snow on the Euro


The models this evening have shifted the very cold air slightly to the east in the 6-10 day period. But as a settlement because we are on the fringes that increases the chance for passing snow showers.


yeah its not that cold really(although Dallas is in the 20s at mid afternoon Saturday) but I'd gladly trade the cold for snow :lol:


It'll change again at 12z tomorrow. :lol:. We've touted things start changing around and after the 20th. Hopefully in a few hours we kick that off and stay below normal for some time.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3720 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:04 am

HRRR (6z now) still showing moderate to heavy rates of snowfall at DFW and northern counties in a couple of hours.

The airport has fallen to 55F from 60. Looks to fall about 5 degrees per hour for the next 4-5 hours.
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