Texas Winter 2018-2019
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
12z Euro dropping the hammer with plenty of energy hanging back in the SW.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
euro has heavy rain this weekend. Ill take anything at this point !
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
bubba hotep wrote:12z Euro dropping the hammer with plenty of energy hanging back in the SW.
Not enough digging, WC ridge position too far east...going towards GFS OP (NO BUENO). Moisture return is becoming extremely problematic looking at Upper Level Pattern
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- Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
euro has a hurricane off of Florida LMAO
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Models keep showing everything east what gives 
Other than maybe another predawn flizzard Wednesday

Other than maybe another predawn flizzard Wednesday
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#neversummer
- Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
It's always been the case. The E has no issue with moisture at any time of the year. It's texas points W.
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
How would this setup not produce anything? Please enlighten me.


I mean, how would it look any better than that?


I mean, how would it look any better than that?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Brent wrote:Models keep showing everything east what gives
Other than maybe another predawn flizzard Wednesday
Starting to feel like we're in the movie "Groundhog Day", models showing the same song and dance over and over and over and over and over again!!!


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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Cpv17 wrote:How would this setup not produce anything? Please enlighten me.
I mean, how would it look any better than that?
Trough is too far east and positively titled, need mean axis out towards NM/AZ not Texas and neutral/negative tilted!....there is no mechanism for moisture return and/or lift. The only thing I see if this UL Pattern were to verify is getting light QPF squeezed under N/W flow!
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- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
You folks up in the D-FW area may need to head south to Pensacola, FL to see some snow next week. 

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Still time for a shift west but DA**, I feel like we've been saying that for 3 straight years now!!!
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
orangeblood wrote:bubba hotep wrote:12z Euro dropping the hammer with plenty of energy hanging back in the SW.
Not enough digging, WC ridge position too far east...going towards GFS OP (NO BUENO). Moisture return is becoming extremely problematic looking at Upper Level Pattern
Not too worried about anything beyond D5, too many moving parts for the operational models to resolve.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Cpv17 wrote:How would this setup not produce anything? Please enlighten me.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019012112/ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019012112/ecmwf_T850a_scus_10.png
I mean, how would it look any better than that?
Temps are only part of the picture, got to look to the West to see what moisture (lows) are coming. This is a super basic explanation, but, we need moisture.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
bubba hotep wrote:orangeblood wrote:bubba hotep wrote:12z Euro dropping the hammer with plenty of energy hanging back in the SW.
Not enough digging, WC ridge position too far east...going towards GFS OP (NO BUENO). Moisture return is becoming extremely problematic looking at Upper Level Pattern
Not too worried about anything beyond D5, too many moving parts for the operational models to resolve.
You need the cold first and it’s showing plenty of that. You’re absolutely right though. Plenty of time yet to resolve. I’m glad that it’s showing the Arctic hammer though. Models, to me, have an easier time figuring that out compared to where troughs will be, especially 7-10 days out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
European is completely different from it's earlier run. Latest GFS is very different from European at 234... GFS does have the trough much further west in the long range.. and an arctic dump down the east side of the rockies. GEFS does indicate colder air building up in western canada. Looks chaotic. Of note.. still no high pressures in Canada. Highest I could find is 1019
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Euro EPS is much more favorable for winter wx across Texas in the 7-10D range than the 00z was, even though the 12z Op wasn't as good of a look.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- South Texas Storms
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
bubba hotep wrote:Euro EPS is much more favorable for winter wx across Texas in the 7-10D range than the 00z was, even though the 12z Op wasn't as good of a look.
Yep, it looks like we may have several chances for frozen precip over the next few weeks. The cold air will likely be in place...we just need a disturbance and moisture to time up with it nicely.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
bubba hotep wrote:Euro EPS is much more favorable for winter wx across Texas in the 7-10D range than the 00z was, even though the 12z Op wasn't as good of a look.
Bubba, you’re very knowledgeable about the weather! Please tell me how this produces precip over Texas

But this doesn’t?

Makes no sense to me

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