Texas Winter 2018-2019

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4061 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:55 pm

I think the reason we have seen some discrepencies between the AAM and some models not matching up/volatile is likely because of the divergence in the Maritime continent/Indonesia. This is unusual for a Nino event but it should relax and the Pacific takes over. Natural retrogression and STJ amplification. Lots of mumbo jumbo.

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Ralph's Weather
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4062 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:07 pm

Cpv17 wrote:How would this setup not produce anything? Please enlighten me.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019012112/ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019012112/ecmwf_T850a_scus_10.png

I mean, how would it look any better than that?

It would produce, I mean ideally the EPO ridge could be a tad further W but that set up would work.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4063 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:09 pm

Well this map isn’t something you see every day, that’s for sure! Still too far east imo though. I’d move that west about 100-200 miles.

Image

This looks a bit interesting..some green showing back up in Deep South Texas. Maybe a sign of moisture coming back?

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4064 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:11 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Euro EPS is much more favorable for winter wx across Texas in the 7-10D range than the 00z was, even though the 12z Op wasn't as good of a look.


Bubba, you’re very knowledgeable about the weather! Please tell me how this produces precip over Texas

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019012112/ecmwf_z500a_namer_3.png

But this doesn’t?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019012112/ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

Makes no sense to me :think:


It would, that is a good look. I am not worried about surface output right now at that range. The upper patter is great. That would produce a winter storm from TX through the South.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4065 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:15 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:How would this setup not produce anything? Please enlighten me.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019012112/ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019012112/ecmwf_T850a_scus_10.png

I mean, how would it look any better than that?

It would produce, I mean ideally the EPO ridge could be a tad further W but that set up would work.


I’d like to see the highest heights more towards the Gulf of Alaska instead of Graham Island.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4066 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:20 pm

95% of Euro members give me snow Wed morning. Max amount is around 3" and most down under an inch. Also some will likely be lost to sleet as the 850 0 degree line is trailing the surface freezing line. If that 850 0 degree line could advance a bit faster I'd be dumped on good. Hoping for no freezing rain.

GFS ensemble mean maxes at over 2" of snow Wed morning over Carthage with some members nearing 6" over southern E TX.

Other models finally picking up on this event.

Wed morning is going to surprise some folks in E TX.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4067 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:37 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Euro EPS is much more favorable for winter wx across Texas in the 7-10D range than the 00z was, even though the 12z Op wasn't as good of a look.


Bubba, you’re very knowledgeable about the weather! Please tell me how this produces precip over Texas

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019012112/ecmwf_z500a_namer_3.png

But this doesn’t?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019012112/ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

Makes no sense to me :think:


It would, that is a good look. I am not worried about surface output right now at that range. The upper patter is great. That would produce a winter storm from TX through the South.


Those two maps are different in actuality, first one is more of a neutral trough and the other is a positively tilted trough....you get more dynamic lift and moisture return with the former not the latter
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4068 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:42 pm

Ntxw wrote:I think the reason we have seen some discrepencies between the AAM and some models not matching up/volatile is likely because of the divergence in the Maritime continent/Indonesia. This is unusual for a Nino event but it should relax and the Pacific takes over. Natural retrogression and STJ amplification. Lots of mumbo jumbo.

https://images2.imgbox.com/97/7e/H9zAtRRK_o.gif


Ntxw, do you think the models will resolve things as time goes on? What is the main thing we need to watch for moving forward to see if we can get in a more favorable pattern for winter weather?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4069 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:43 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:95% of Euro members give me snow Wed morning. Max amount is around 3" and most down under an inch. Also some will likely be lost to sleet as the 850 0 degree line is trailing the surface freezing line. If that 850 0 degree line could advance a bit faster I'd be dumped on good. Hoping for no freezing rain.

GFS ensemble mean maxes at over 2" of snow Wed morning over Carthage with some members nearing 6" over southern E TX.

Other models finally picking up on this event.

Wed morning is going to surprise some folks in E TX.


What do we have to do to get some of this in DFW?...we just keep missing out on anything but a flurry.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4070 Postby sphelps8681 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:47 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:95% of Euro members give me snow Wed morning. Max amount is around 3" and most down under an inch. Also some will likely be lost to sleet as the 850 0 degree line is trailing the surface freezing line. If that 850 0 degree line could advance a bit faster I'd be dumped on good. Hoping for no freezing rain.

GFS ensemble mean maxes at over 2" of snow Wed morning over Carthage with some members nearing 6" over southern E TX.

Other models finally picking up on this event.

Wed morning is going to surprise some folks in E TX.


What parts of E Tx?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4071 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:48 pm

hamburgerman7070 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:I think the reason we have seen some discrepencies between the AAM and some models not matching up/volatile is likely because of the divergence in the Maritime continent/Indonesia. This is unusual for a Nino event but it should relax and the Pacific takes over. Natural retrogression and STJ amplification. Lots of mumbo jumbo.

https://images2.imgbox.com/97/7e/H9zAtRRK_o.gif


Ntxw, do you think the models will resolve things as time goes on? What is the main thing we need to watch for moving forward to see if we can get in a more favorable pattern for winter weather?


I'm not sure if the models will resolve, just noting what could be the reason there are discrepencies between one run to another, or even against historical 500mb patterns. The two dueling low freq tropical forcing has effects on both the PNA and NAO in particular. +AAM with convection over the Maritime Continent is quite unusual.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4072 Postby Haris » Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:51 pm

The EPS are fairly snowy. The future is very foggy beyond Wednesday for sure. Could be another dud or an actual event. Too early to write anything off the table.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4073 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 21, 2019 4:39 pm

Haris wrote:The EPS are fairly snowy. The future is very foggy beyond Wednesday for sure. Could be another dud or an actual event. Too early to write anything off the table.


Unfortunately, at least to my eyes, they don't look as promising...mean trough axis has trended east, not west, and only showing Mean QPF at DFW of around 0.45 inch over next 15 days. That is on the dry side for DFW this time of year! Plus an even more disturbing trend on the Euro EPS is it's lifting the cold north after Day 11-12. As far as cold goes over next 10 days, it looks better, but not on the moisture side of the equation
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4074 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 4:42 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Haris wrote:The EPS are fairly snowy. The future is very foggy beyond Wednesday for sure. Could be another dud or an actual event. Too early to write anything off the table.


Unfortunately, at least to my eyes, they don't look as promising...mean trough axis has trended east, not west, and only showing Mean QPF at DFW of around 0.45 inch over next 15 days. That is on the dry side for DFW this time of year!


If we do get snow from a low in the Gulf, then the place to look is well south of the D-FW area, as the moisture typically doesn't extend too far inland. Heck, the Euro has the low so far south that the snow is south of Houston! Of course, that's assuming that the models are right for next week, which is a big assumption (and each model has a different solution).

I have to admit, by the way, that model runs for next week and beyond are starting to look "interesting" for snow lovers. An influx of fresh Canadian air may set the stage for multiple events, even down to the Gulf Coast.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4075 Postby dhweather » Mon Jan 21, 2019 4:44 pm

Wooooo! Only 384 hours out - it can't be wrong this time?! :lol: :lol:

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4076 Postby dhweather » Mon Jan 21, 2019 4:53 pm

Haris wrote:euro has a hurricane off of Florida LMAO



But it's not in the Gulf. :grrr:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4077 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 21, 2019 4:53 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:95% of Euro members give me snow Wed morning. Max amount is around 3" and most down under an inch. Also some will likely be lost to sleet as the 850 0 degree line is trailing the surface freezing line. If that 850 0 degree line could advance a bit faster I'd be dumped on good. Hoping for no freezing rain.

GFS ensemble mean maxes at over 2" of snow Wed morning over Carthage with some members nearing 6" over southern E TX.

Other models finally picking up on this event.

Wed morning is going to surprise some folks in E TX.


What do we have to do to get some of this in DFW?...we just keep missing out on anything but a flurry.


Seriously so much talk about being our year and nothing to show for it
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4078 Postby dhweather » Mon Jan 21, 2019 4:55 pm

Portastorm wrote:I realize everyone is frustrated because it always seems like the "goods" get delivered in the models 10 days out. We'd all feel a lot better if the models were in agreement 72 hours out. But in reviewing this morning the ensembles for all three medium range models, you have to admit it's impressive to see such agreement in a pattern which would, theoretically, deliver the "goods" for us in the Southern Plains and Texas.

Let's hope it holds and verifies. This time. :wink:


The check is in the mail.
This won't hurt a bit.
There was no pass interference.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4079 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:11 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Haris wrote:The EPS are fairly snowy. The future is very foggy beyond Wednesday for sure. Could be another dud or an actual event. Too early to write anything off the table.


Unfortunately, at least to my eyes, they don't look as promising...mean trough axis has trended east, not west, and only showing Mean QPF at DFW of around 0.45 inch over next 15 days. That is on the dry side for DFW this time of year! Plus an even more disturbing trend on the Euro EPS is it's lifting the cold north after Day 11-12. As far as cold goes over next 10 days, it looks better, but not on the moisture side of the equation


Orangeblood, I hate to be a debbie downer, but i think winter is over other than a few cold shots. Trough is too far east and then it starts to moderate late in the period. Only way imo we can salvage winter is if we get a -nao, otherwise its coming to an abrupt end imo.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4080 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:12 pm

hamburgerman7070 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Haris wrote:The EPS are fairly snowy. The future is very foggy beyond Wednesday for sure. Could be another dud or an actual event. Too early to write anything off the table.


Unfortunately, at least to my eyes, they don't look as promising...mean trough axis has trended east, not west, and only showing Mean QPF at DFW of around 0.45 inch over next 15 days. That is on the dry side for DFW this time of year! Plus an even more disturbing trend on the Euro EPS is it's lifting the cold north after Day 11-12. As far as cold goes over next 10 days, it looks better, but not on the moisture side of the equation


Orangeblood, I hate to be a debbie downer, but i think winter is over other than a few cold shots. Trough is too far east and then it starts to moderate late in the period. Only way imo we can salvage winter is if we get a -nao, otherwise its coming to an abrupt end imo.


Early Spring??

I'm down for that. Give me 70's in Feb, 80's in March. Spring seemed late last year, we had really cold weekends up until May.
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