Texas Winter 2018-2019

[dhweather]

Only 252 hours out!

[bubba hotep]

It's really looking like winter wx or not, a wet pattern is setting up. Thoughts?

Yes, models are in good agreement that we will see the Pacific retrograde with and increasingly active STJ. There will be some cold air in WCAN so getting winter wx on the backside of a system is certainly possible, much more typical of a + ENSO pattern vs what we are seeing now with mostly dry positive tilt systems.

[Ntxw]

It's really looking like winter wx or not, a wet pattern is setting up. Thoughts?

Yes, models are in good agreement that we will see the Pacific retrograde with and increasingly active STJ. There will be some cold air in WCAN so getting winter wx on the backside of a system is certainly possible, much more typical of a + ENSO pattern vs what we are seeing now with mostly dry positive tilt systems.

Easterly wind burst, risk of dry and cold /suppression..now westerly wind burst, wet but risk warm. Just can never win! Too much -pna isn't that great either.

[BTAYLOR5021]

Once again Atlanta shares the same latitude or is closely similar to Dfw and yet again they get another shot at snow....very depressing...something isn't right...we would have normally gotton our fare share by now....

[harp]

Once again Atlanta shares the same latitude or is closely similar to Dfw and yet again they get another shot at snow....very depressing...something isn't right...we would have normally gotton our fare share by now....

Heck, I think Beaumont has a chance for snow and they are lower than where I am in Louisiana!

[Haris]

Once again Atlanta shares the same latitude or is closely similar to Dfw and yet again they get another shot at snow....very depressing...something isn't right...we would have normally gotton our fare share by now....

Yep. Atlanta has seen much much more snow than NTX esp the last several years. They never have issues with moisture. The only busts there I have seen were forecasts being too LOW on snow amounts like last Dec.

Most of my family lives there and I've been there a lot. I was able to witness a white christmas there too in 2009. 3 or 4" I recall of snow! Love that place

[Ntxw]

Once again Atlanta shares the same latitude or is closely similar to Dfw and yet again they get another shot at snow....very depressing...something isn't right...we would have normally gotton our fare share by now....

Yep. Atlanta has seen much much more snow than NTX esp the last several years. They never have issues with moisture. The only busts there I have seen were forecasts being too LOW on snow amounts like last Dec.

Most of my family lives there and I've been there a lot. I was able to witness a white christmas there too in 2009. 3 or 4" I recall of snow! Love that place

Atlanta actually is more North than DFW and they are actually 1k feet up. DFW is closer to Montgomery, AL and Macon, GA. Despite this DFW has a much more impressive snow history than the ATL (8.3" is the official record from the 40s) . Atlanta's snow history is more comparable to that of Austin's. However you all are correct that the past few years ATL has fared better than places like OKC and Amarillo even.

[Cpv17]

Once again Atlanta shares the same latitude or is closely similar to Dfw and yet again they get another shot at snow....very depressing...something isn't right...we would have normally gotton our fare share by now....

The southeast in general is a very wet region. Seems like there’s always moisture around over there. A lot of things have to come together for us to get precip here. It seems very few things have to come together to get precip in the SE. Me & ntxw had a convo about this a few months ago.

[wxman22]

While that may be true for the majority of the state,but for east and southeast Texas moisture is usually not hard to come by the average yearly rainfall is about the same as states to the east of course im talking about mainly areas along and east of I-45 though. Most places in the country do not get nearly as much rain on average as we do here in southeast Texas and the rest of the northern gulf coast.

[Brent]

I just dont get whats wrong with our winters all this hype and nonsense about how great it was gonna be and we cant get anything real inside 5 to 7 days its very irritating

[Cpv17]

:uarrow: While that may be true for the majority of the state,but for east and southeast Texas moisture is usually not hard to come by the average yearly rainfall is about the same as states to the east of course im talking about mainly areas along and east of I-45 though. Most places in the country do not get nearly as much rain on average as we do here in southeast Texas and the rest of the northern gulf coast.

Yep. I’m in Wharton county. About one hour southwest of Houston in between Houston and Victoria. We usually don’t see that much rain here as Houston does and points east of there, but we do receive quite a bit more rain than Victoria, which is an hour to my southwest.

[Cpv17]

I just dont get whats wrong with our winters all this hype and nonsense about how great it was gonna be and we cant get anything real inside 5 to 7 days its very irritating

Even the cold front that’s coming through here Monday/Tuesday isn’t looking so cold anymore. Seems like this has been an issue with the past couple fronts as well.

[Brent]

I just dont get whats wrong with our winters all this hype and nonsense about how great it was gonna be and we cant get anything real inside 5 to 7 days its very irritating

Even the cold front that’s coming through here Monday/Tuesday isn’t looking so cold anymore. Seems like this has been an issue with the past couple fronts as well.

Seriously I'm sorry but mid 40s in January for highs is not even really cold and most definitely not arctic. We were colder before Thanksgiving when averages are warmer!

[Cpv17]

I just dont get whats wrong with our winters all this hype and nonsense about how great it was gonna be and we cant get anything real inside 5 to 7 days its very irritating

Even the cold front that’s coming through here Monday/Tuesday isn’t looking so cold anymore. Seems like this has been an issue with the past couple fronts as well.

Seriously I'm sorry but mid 40s in January for highs is not even really cold and most definitely not arctic. We were colder before Thanksgiving when averages are warmer!

Mid 40’s for January is definitely not that cold for DFW lol that’s barely even cold for us down here. And yes, we’re talking high temperatures.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Time to cancel winter.....

Sigh.

[orangeblood]

I just dont get whats wrong with our winters all this hype and nonsense about how great it was gonna be and we cant get anything real inside 5 to 7 days its very irritating

Even the cold front that’s coming through here Monday/Tuesday isn’t looking so cold anymore. Seems like this has been an issue with the past couple fronts as well.

Cold is there and actually the coldest maybe ever seen in parts of Midwest, unfortunately it’s getting held tightly around the extremely strong TPV instead of spreading out across a wider area as you typically see! It’s practically impossible to accurately predict a 3 month forecast (might get lucky occasionally), just way too many ever changing variables. Long range forecasting is one of the more humbling games you can ever play!

[wxman57]

Only 252 hours out!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019012712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

Yeah, 12z GFS is showing HEAVY sleet for DFW February 7th. Note the warm layer above the sub-freezing surface layer. Of course, I have no doubts whatsoever that this will precisely verify.

[wxman57]

Once again Atlanta shares the same latitude or is closely similar to Dfw and yet again they get another shot at snow....very depressing...something isn't right...we would have normally gotton our fare share by now....

Heck, I think Beaumont has a chance for snow and they are lower than where I am in Louisiana!

Beaumont, snow? This week? Nah. Mid 40s and rain Tuesday morning.

[orangeblood]

Really nice looking pattern developing for Feb...unfortunately, since it appears most our already beat down with the false starts should we just shut this 2018-19 thread down ? JK. Lots to still be optimistic about moving forward

[Ntxw]

There is now pretty good agreement across the board that the atmosphere will take on a stable Nino-based state and away from the semi-permanent (Nina-esque mixed signal) Indonesia forcing. The SOI has given signal for this with the drop. We're probably going to enter a 30-45 day period of above normal rainfall/qpf as the deep tropical Pacific sets up shop. MJO will take on P7 and likely 8-1-2 thereafter.