2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[NotSparta]

2005 might not be as big an analog as I thought but 2004 looks closer to a good analog along with 1969 with a madoki look to the El Niño and the Atlantic trending towards a similar look temperature and shear wise

Wrt ATL TC activity 2005 was never a good analog, only ENSO, and that analog is getting worse

[AutoPenalti]

El Niño force is back, which means we are back to below average to average season.

[tolakram]

El Niño force is back, which means we are back to below average to average season.

I see your wink and spam, but just to be clear. Nino weeklies are interesting but do not tell the story. It's still a very west based el nino.

Personally I still think we have an average season, but only time will tell.

[AutoPenalti]

El Niño force is back, which means we are back to below average to average season.

I see your wink and spam, but just to be clear. Nino weeklies are interesting but do not tell the story. It's still a very west based el nino.

Personally I still think we have an average season, but only time will tell.

In my opinion, based on what I’ve seen on the state of the Atlantic basin as a whole, the ingredients are there for an active season.

As I stated earlier with below normal wind shear across the MDR to an unusually active WAM with below average SAL and slower trades and a steady increase in SST’s. It’s all but possible we my have an active season on our hands. I’d run around the same numbers as 2017 with a lower ACE.

[Patrick99]

Is it just me, or is the shear over the MDR mostly quite low right now? Not that I'm expecting anything to get going in early June, but interesting.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136001074303836166

[Kingarabian]

Yeah when I saw the Euro this morning I was like wow. Hella of a suppressed phase sitting over the Pacific slowly moving into the Atlantic. Don't recall such sinkage this early in the season in the past couple of years.

[SoupBone]

:uarrow: Yeah when I saw the Euro this morning I was like wow. Hella of a suppressed phase sitting over the Pacific slowly moving into the Atlantic. Don't recall such sinkage this early in the season in the past couple of years.

I feel like a dummy asking, but suppressed activity for both the Atlantic and Pacific, or within the region it's moving into?

[galaxy401]

I mean, we can look at all these little patterns that could point to an active or inactive season but we really aren't going to know until August (and even then not until the last week of the month). Last year had the freezing cold MJO but rapidly warmed up in late August.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Yeah when I saw the Euro this morning I was like wow. Hella of a suppressed phase sitting over the Pacific slowly moving into the Atlantic. Don't recall such sinkage this early in the season in the past couple of years.

I feel like a dummy asking, but suppressed activity for both the Atlantic and Pacific, or within the region it's moving into?

The MJO suppressive and convective phases affect the regions they're presently in.

[SoupBone]

:uarrow: Yeah when I saw the Euro this morning I was like wow. Hella of a suppressed phase sitting over the Pacific slowly moving into the Atlantic. Don't recall such sinkage this early in the season in the past couple of years.

I feel like a dummy asking, but suppressed activity for both the Atlantic and Pacific, or within the region it's moving into?

The MJO suppressive and convective phases affect the regions they're presently in.

And from his graphic, the MJO is moving toward the Atlantic right now into the next several weeks.

[BYG Jacob]

I feel like we won't know what kind of year we're in for until August.

[Kazmit]

I feel like we won't know what kind of year we're in for until August.

That always seems to be the case, especially with backloaded seasons. Remember 2016? The Atlantic was dead all of July and people started "season cancelling"- but it still ended up above average.

[BYG Jacob]

And as always, anybody writing season cancelled in August is an idiot.

[Kingarabian]

Euro Seasonal June forecast shows a continuation of present conditions with a near moderate El Nino persisting through December.

[SFLcane]

Euro Seasonal June forecast shows a continuation of present conditions with a near moderate El Nino persisting through December.

Of course it does... if it were up to the euro we would not have an Atlantic Hurricane season the last 3-4 years.

[Kingarabian]

Euro Seasonal June forecast shows a continuation of present conditions with a near moderate El Nino persisting through December.

Of course it does... if it were up to the euro we would not have an Atlantic Hurricane season the last 3-4 years.

Well it shows the El Nino a bit weaker compared to the May forecast

[NotSparta]

Euro Seasonal June forecast shows a continuation of present conditions with a near moderate El Nino persisting through December.

Well, it's the euro... it has an obligation to show El Niño lol

[SFLcane]

Um yea were did the warm MDR go? Looks below normal to me on this map but as always it depends on which map you believe.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eatl_1.png

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136631987144450048