2019 WPAC Season
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Getting quite bullish on future Sepat.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
GFS is on and off with the system. EURO continues to be null...
1 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
euro6208 wrote:GFS is on and off with the system. EURO continues to be null...
Very odd. Last time this happened was in 2016.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
00Z Strongest run yet...
Latest 06Z..........Back to NOTHING....
Latest 06Z..........Back to NOTHING....
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Mei-yu front continues to be very vigorous. Bringing lots of rains to Taiwan, Okinawa, China, Parts of Japan, and possibly Northern Luzon if the forecast of it dipping south holds.
WestPac High really keeping the tropics suppressed combined with the high shear from the Mei-yu...Damn.
WestPac High really keeping the tropics suppressed combined with the high shear from the Mei-yu...Damn.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Hello upgraded (FV3) GFS on tropicaltidbits on WPAC region, now the 6 hour interval forecast time is extended (formerly till 240 hr) to 384 hours or all its forecast times or all high resolution. I remember when GFS high resolution forecast time was just until below 200 hrs (and beyond that low resolution). Was it till 180 or 192 hr?
Before, I used weathernerds for FV3-GFS forecast on WPAC, except that there's no WPAC region option in weathernerds but it allows you to create a custom region forecast and aesthetically tropicaltidbits' MSLP graphic is better than weathernerds', how I waited for this day.
To celebrate here's a tropicaltidbits forecast GIF of the upgraded GFS on WPAC in all forecast times at 12Z run, look at that upgraded resolution, and GFS wants to develop a TC near 200 hours? Hmm.
Before, I used weathernerds for FV3-GFS forecast on WPAC, except that there's no WPAC region option in weathernerds but it allows you to create a custom region forecast and aesthetically tropicaltidbits' MSLP graphic is better than weathernerds', how I waited for this day.
To celebrate here's a tropicaltidbits forecast GIF of the upgraded GFS on WPAC in all forecast times at 12Z run, look at that upgraded resolution, and GFS wants to develop a TC near 200 hours? Hmm.
0 likes
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
18Z seems to have dropped that monster typhoon and now develops the one behind it even stronger.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
MJO and KW is here and Incredible amounts of Rising Air.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
4th run in a row that GFS develops this system.
Development from 192 to 174 hours between the 00Z and 06Z run. Timeframe closing in.
Weaker on approach to the Guam area. 00Z had a 961 mb vs 989 mb at 06z.
One thing they agree though is that it will intensify rapidly once it clears the Marianas.
00Z had 932mb...06Z at 938mb...
Development from 192 to 174 hours between the 00Z and 06Z run. Timeframe closing in.
Weaker on approach to the Guam area. 00Z had a 961 mb vs 989 mb at 06z.
One thing they agree though is that it will intensify rapidly once it clears the Marianas.
00Z had 932mb...06Z at 938mb...
1 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Euro 12Z finally shows something that's at least noticeable.
1 likes
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Hayabusa wrote:Euro 12Z finally shows something that's at least noticeable.
Yup finally something.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
18z GFS continues to bring the time frame in. Coincides with a WWB that it has near 150E/160E in about 5 days.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Coming in stronger as well...959 mb barely north of Guam...in the Rota Channel...
1 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Lowest pressure so far...
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
These GFS runs have been very confusing. 00Z had a much weaker cyclone recurving east of the Marianas.
928 mb lowest pressure yet so far.
928 mb lowest pressure yet so far.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 532
- Joined: Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:31 pm
- Location: Jerusalem, Israel
- Contact:
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
The 6z and 18z GFS and GEFS are called by many meteorologists and weather enthusiasts the "happy hour runs", and not without reason. They tend to go nuts on intensity of existing and potential TCs. Although the new GFS appears to have less false TC developments and less overintensification of TCs, it seems the 6 and 18z runs are still susceptible to these biases. Take them with a glass of margarita
2 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
At this point we just have to wait and see. The GFS's solution is credible IMO. Even though RMM shows the Euro forecast killing the MJO in the MC, there's plenty of -VP200 anomalies across the entire WPAC basin.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3408
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Well the Euro now shows something up to 240hrs, and the non-happy hour GFS runs are still consistent with the idea of a significant TC traversing the WPAC next week.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
The one new wrinkle that does bear watching is the possible return of
a positive MJO. The GFS and the NavGEM double down on this and bring
a tropical cyclone by in about a week and a half. That`s the quick
way to end a drought, however this is the reason forecasts are not
yet automated. That particular scenario is not the most likely, and
the ECMWF-HiRes takes it farther south, along 5N. This is much more
likely at this time of year, so when the two models diverged switched
away from the GFS. However, this does bear continued monitoring.
Models are forming a near-equatorial trough with multiple
circulations across the region around midweek next week. Among all
the models, the GFS is being most aggressive by spinning up a
tropical storm near Pohnpei and Kosrae after midweek next week. Since
there will be a positive MJO entering the Northwest Pacific next week,
this will probably cause an increase in activity and need to monitor
for possible TC development.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Blown Away, HurricaneMaster_PR, IcyTundra, islandgirl45 and 43 guests